What High-Speed Rail
Really Costs
The federal government is currently inviting public comments on the Alto high-speed rail project, with a deadline of April 24, 2026. Alto’s published capital cost estimate ranges from $60 to $120 billion — already the largest infrastructure project in Canadian history by a wide margin.
Before that consultation closes, communities in the corridor deserve to understand what international experience tells us about how these numbers actually evolve — and where the real costs tend to hide.
Based on a database of more than 16,000 megaprojects, nine out of ten run over budget. Rail projects average a 44.7% cost overrun. EU high-speed rail specifically averaged a 78% overrun across the lines audited in 2018. Applied to Alto’s $60–90 billion estimate, historical averages suggest a realistic final cost of $87–130 billion or more — before a single track has been laid.
This is not pessimism. It is the consistent, documented, peer-reviewed pattern from comparable projects on every continent where high-speed rail has been built.
Nine out of ten megaprojects run over budget — and rail is among the worst
Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg has spent decades studying megaproject performance. His database — the world’s largest, covering more than 16,000 projects across 136 countries — reveals a stark finding: nine out of ten megaprojects run over budget. Rail projects are among the worst offenders, with an average cost overrun of 44.7% and ridership shortfalls averaging 51.4%. These patterns hold across countries, decades, and political systems. 1 2
The European Court of Auditors reached similar conclusions in a landmark 2018 audit of EU-funded high-speed rail. Aggregate cost overruns across the lines examined were €25.1 billion — a 78% overrun at the line level. Construction delays of more than a decade affected half the lines studied. Four of the ten lines cost more than €100 million per minute of travel time saved. 3
The Iron Law of Megaprojects
Professor Flyvbjerg calls it the “Iron Law”: megaprojects are delivered over budget, over time, and under benefits, over and over again. Fewer than 1% of megaprojects are completed on time, on budget, and deliver the promised benefits. Project managers competing for funding tend to present costs at the floor of what is plausible — a dynamic Flyvbjerg calls “strategic misrepresentation.” 1 4
Every major HSR project has exceeded its initial estimate
The table below compares initial budget estimates with actual or current projected costs for major high-speed rail projects around the world. Every single project on this list exceeded its original estimate — most by enormous margins.
| Project | Length | Initial Estimate | Latest / Final Cost | Overrun |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California HSR San Francisco–Los Angeles |
~800 km | US$33B (2008) | US$106–128B (2024) | +220–290% |
| UK HS2 London–Birmingham, Phase 1 only |
~225 km | £37.5B (2009, whole network) | £81–100B+ (2025, Phase 1 only) | +134–170% |
| Stuttgart–Munich HSR Germany |
~156 km | €2.6B (initial) | €14.8B (2022) | +469% |
| Stuttgart 21 Germany, station + tunnel |
— | €2.5B (1995) | €8B+ (2025) | +220% |
| Japan Shinkansen Tokyo–Osaka |
515 km | ¥200B (1958) | ¥380B (1964) | +90% |
| Channel Tunnel UK–France |
50 km | £4.65B (1985) | £9.5B (1994) | +80% |
| EU HSR average 2018 Court of Auditors audit |
Various | €32.1B (combined) | €57.2B (combined) | +78% |
| Jakarta–Bandung HSR Indonesia |
~140 km | US$5.5B (2016) | US$7.3B (2023) | +33% |
| Canada — Alto HSR Toronto–Québec City |
~1,000 km | C$6–12B (2021 HFR) C$60–90B (2024 HSR) |
C$80–120B (2025, various) | ? |
Overrun percentages are approximate, calculated in real terms where possible. 1 3 5 6 7 8
Canadian precedent: Trans Mountain and Ontario Line
Canada’s most recent comparable experience is the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, estimated at $5.4 billion in 2013 and delivered at $34 billion in 2024 — a 530% overrun. Ontario’s Metrolinx has seen the Ontario Line nearly double from its original $10.9 billion estimate.
If Alto follows the historical pattern for rail megaprojects — an average 45% overrun — the $60–90 billion estimate would land at $87–130 billion. At the California or HS2 rate, the figure could exceed $150 billion. 10 14
Already Canada’s most expensive project — before overruns begin
Alto’s current public estimate of $60–90 billion (2024 dollars) already makes it the most expensive infrastructure project in Canadian history by a wide margin.
The original concept cost far less — and the difference has never been explained
Transport Action Canada has pointed out that the original “high-frequency rail” concept studied in 2016 — 170 km/h trains on dedicated tracks — was estimated at less than $5 billion (under $10 billion in today’s dollars). The escalation to $60–120 billion reflects a fundamental change in project scope that has never been subjected to a publicly released cost-benefit comparison. 16 17
The per-kilometre cost is out of step with global norms
Jerome Gessaroli, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, calculated that Alto implies capital costs of $250–375 million per minute of travel time saved. The EU average — itself considered excessive by the European Court of Auditors — is roughly $146 million per minute saved. Alto’s per-kilometre cost also substantially exceeds the European average of roughly $40 million per kilometre. 15
What communities along the corridor deserve to know
“Communities being asked to accept a rail line through their region deserve to know not just the stated budget, but the realistic all-in cost based on how every comparable project in history has actually unfolded.”