Tag: HFR vs HSR

  • The report that vanished

    The Report That Vanished

    Eighteen recommendations from Parliament’s Transport Committee. A government commitment to respond. A prorogation in between. And the questions about ALTO that remain unanswered today.

    ⚠ Document Under Analysis

    In September 2024, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities tabled its 18th Report: Issues and Opportunities: High Frequency Rail in the Toronto to Quebec City Corridor. Six meetings. 33 witnesses. Four written briefs. Eighteen recommendations.

    Transport Canada’s own briefing materials said the government “intends to provide a formal response this Fall/Winter.” The response was never tabled. Documents obtained under Access to Information by The Canadian Press (May 28, 2025) show that the project was simultaneously being rebranded as HSR through an internal process that had been under way since September 2023 — a year before the committee report was even tabled, with more than $330,000 paid to an outside marketing firm. Parliament was prorogued on January 6, 2025. Bill C-15 received royal assent on March 26, 2026 — without the cost analysis, the document release, or the VIA-impact study the committee had asked for.

    Critical Finding

    The recommendations did not fail on their merits. They did not have to be answered. Prorogation ended the committee that asked them; the request to respond technically survives, but the response itself does not. In practice, when prorogation occurs before a response has been tabled, the question evaporates with the parliamentary session.

    The result: a $60–90 billion infrastructure project moved through to royal assent of its enabling legislation without the cost analysis, the preparatory-documents release, or the VIA-impact study that a bipartisan committee had formally asked Parliament to require.

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    The Report That Vanished — Full Brief (PDF)
    Detailed analysis of TRAN Report 18, the marketing-led HFR-to-HSR pivot, the prorogation that intervened, and the parliamentary mechanisms by which the recommendations can still be revived
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    The Committee

    What the Transport Committee did

    On March 7, 2023, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities agreed to study the proposed High Frequency Rail project, along with two proposed Alberta projects. The committee initially anticipated four meetings; on September 18, 2023, it voted to extend the study. Between September 20, 2023 and February 29, 2024, the committee held six meetings on the file.

    It heard from 33 witnesses: ALTO’s own chief executive Martin Imbleau (then styled CEO of VIA HFR–VIA TGF Inc.); Transport Canada’s ADM for High Frequency Rail Vincent Robitaille; VIA Rail president Mario Péloquin; the Railway Association of Canada; Amtrak; the Urban Institute; HEC Montréal; planners at l’Université de Montréal; chambers of commerce from Trois-Rivières, Québec City, and Metropolitan Montreal; mayoral representatives from Drummondville and Trois-Rivières; Unifor and the International Transport Workers’ Federation; and consultants including civity Management Consultants from Germany. It received four written briefs.

    The committee was bipartisan in the strongest sense. The chair was Peter Schiefke (Liberal). Vice-chairs were Mark Strahl (Conservative) and Xavier Barsalou-Duval (Bloc). NDP transport critic Taylor Bachrach sat on the committee. Conservative members included Scot Davidson, Leslyn Lewis, and Dan Muys — currently Conservative Associate Shadow Minister of Transport. Liberal members included Vance Badawey, Andy Fillmore, Angelo Iacono, Annie Koutrakis, and Churence Rogers.

    The 18-recommendation report was tabled in September 2024. Transport Canada’s October 2024 Deputy Minister briefing materials acknowledged the report and stated:

    “The Standing Committee on Transportation, Infrastructure and Communities has just tabled its report entitled Issues and Opportunities: High Frequency Rail in the Toronto to Quebec City Corridor, to which the Government of Canada intends to provide a formal response this Fall/Winter.”

    — Transport Canada, Deputy Minister briefing (TRAN), October 10, 2024

    The commitment was made in writing. The response was never tabled.

    The Four That Mattered Most

    Recommendations on cost, documents, and VIA Rail

    Of the eighteen recommendations, four are particularly consequential when read against the project as it stands today. Each was specific, evidence-grounded, and addressed a substantive public-interest question. None has been substantively answered.

    Recommendation 4
    Analysis of the cost difference between HFR and HSR
    What the committee asked for

    That the Minister of Transport require VIA HFR–VIA TGF Inc. to provide within six months a budget and a timetable for completing this project, including an analysis of the incremental cost between HFR and HSR, and that this report be tabled in the House of Commons and reported to committee.

    Status as of May 2026

    Never produced. By the time the report was tabled in September 2024, the corporation it was directed at had already been paying an outside marketing firm for a full year to rebrand the project as HSR — the Cossette contract was signed in September 2023, three months before the committee began its second year of hearings. The name “Alto” was selected internally by April 2024. By the time the recommendation’s six-month deadline arrived, the pivot was eighteen months under way. The cost comparison the committee asked for was not produced before the pivot, and has not been produced since. The $60–90 billion AACE Class 5 range in Q-923 (April 22, 2026) now stands without this analysis behind it.

    Recommendation 6
    Release of the Joint Project Office report
    What the committee asked for

    That the government release the Joint Project Office’s full, unredacted report on the HFR project.

    Status as of May 2026

    Not released. The Joint Project Office consumed approximately $18 million in CIB-subcontracted preparatory studies — engineering work by Aecon and Arup, contracts with Ernst & Young, and other studies. Its underlying analysis has never been made public. ALTO is proceeding on the basis of preparatory analysis that Parliament’s own committee formally asked to see.

    Recommendation 8
    Impact on existing VIA Rail service
    What the committee asked for

    That the Minister require VIA HFR–VIA TGF Inc. to provide an analysis of the impact a dedicated rail line will have on existing VIA Rail service in the Toronto–Quebec City corridor: the viability of maintaining current services, the number of trains, on-time performance, and the possible impacts on freight traffic.

    Status as of May 2026

    Not produced. The Senate Transport and Communications Committee, examining Bill C-15 in February 2026, raised the same concern: Transport Canada said VIA-served communities would continue to be served and that service “may be optimized,” and the Senate “questions that assumption.” The analysis the House committee asked for would have answered the question both committees now raise. It has not been provided.

    Recommendation 10
    No reduction in service to communities currently served by VIA
    What the committee asked for

    That the Government of Canada and VIA HFR–VIA TGF Inc. ensure that HFR does not result in a reduction of service to communities currently served by VIA Rail, and that VIA’s regional rail services be connected to the future HFR service wherever possible.

    Status as of May 2026

    Not committed to. ALTO’s published materials refer to “optimization” of existing VIA services but contain no binding commitment that current VIA-served communities will retain present service levels. The House committee request, the Senate committee’s February 2026 concern, and questioning from members in committee (including MP Dan Muys on February 23, 2026) all point at the same unanswered question.

    Also Worth Flagging

    Four other recommendations that touch ongoing CRI work

    Several other recommendations bear directly on questions the Initiative has documented elsewhere.

    Rec. 5

    Asked the government to look to publicly operated HSR systems in Spain, Switzerland, Austria, and Germany to inform the procurement model. The procurement that followed (Cadence: CDPQ Infra, AtkinsRéalis, Systra, Keolis) was a private-led P3 structure. The public-operator comparison was not published.

    Rec. 7

    Asked that the service design be “centred on the objective of providing a mode of transportation that is competitive with travel by car and by air, in order to maximize modal shift.” ALTO’s station decisions (covered in The Last Mile) bear directly on this. The modal-shift analysis was not published.

    Rec. 9

    Asked that travel time be calculated downtown-to-downtown, including transit connections. ALTO’s public travel-time figures continue to be quoted station-to-station rather than door-to-door.

    Rec. 14

    Asked for a governance mechanism “to make coordinated decisions, thus allowing effective communication and collaboration with cities.” The current architecture (covered in What We Know About ALTO’s Reporting and Accountability) places ALTO under the Financial Administration Act Part X regime without project-specific enabling legislation.

    What Happened

    From marketing contract to royal assent

    The sequence of events that produced the HSRN Act — once the Access to Information record published by The Canadian Press in May 2025 is laid out alongside the parliamentary record — runs across nearly thirty months. Two processes overlap: the bipartisan committee study and the internal rebranding contract. They were both happening throughout 2024.

    September 2023
    Cossette contract signed
    VIA HFR–VIA TGF Inc. signs a contract with the Quebec-based marketing firm Cossette Communication Inc. to develop a “brand narrative” and a tagline for a shift to high speed. In the same month, the corporation asks the three qualified procurement bidders to “propose a second option without speed limitations.” The HFR-to-HSR pivot is operationally under way.
    September 20, 2023–February 29, 2024
    TRAN committee hearings
    Across six meetings, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities hears from 33 witnesses on what is still publicly described as the High Frequency Rail project.
    Late 2023 / Early 2024
    “Widespread disinterest” briefing note
    An undated internal VIA HFR briefing note frames the case for the rebrand: “The concept of ‘high frequency’ faces strong opposition. There’s widespread disinterest and dissatisfaction associated with the term.” Discussions of higher speed “are met with openness,” leading to “greater project support and acceptance.” The note recommends the name change be made early, while public awareness is “relatively low.”
    April 2024
    “Alto” selected internally; code name “Tracks”
    A VIA HFR presentation confirms the name “Alto” has been selected. It is described as embodying “the project’s stronger focus on incorporating higher speeds.” Internally, while work continues, the new name is handled under the code “Tracks.”
    September 2024
    TRAN Report 18 is tabled
    The Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities tables Issues and Opportunities: High Frequency Rail in the Toronto to Quebec City Corridor. Eighteen recommendations — including a request for an HFR/HSR cost comparison within six months. The corporation it is directed at has, by this point, been paying for the HSR rebrand for a full year.
    October 10, 2024
    Government commits to respond
    Transport Canada’s Deputy Minister briefing materials state that the Government of Canada “intends to provide a formal response this Fall/Winter.” The commitment is on the record.
    December 16, 2024
    Formal HFR-to-HSR designation
    Briefing note AY-2024-537411 formally designates the project as HSR. It records what the internal documentary record has already been pointing toward for fifteen months. The document has not been publicly released. The HFR/HSR cost comparison the committee asked for is not produced before this designation.
    January 6, 2025
    Parliament prorogued
    First session of the 44th Parliament ends. Under House procedure: all committee activity ceases; all orders of reference and committee studies lapse. The only aspect that survives is a request for a government response — but not the response itself. The Cossette contract reaches its final invoice the same month.
    February 2025
    Public announcement under the new name
    Then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly announces “Alto” for the first time, alongside the awarding of a $3.9-billion six-year design contract to the Cadence consortium (CDPQ Infra, AtkinsRéalis, SYSTRA Canada, Keolis Canada, Air Canada, SNCF Voyageurs). The marketing-led rebrand reaches public view.
    February 2025 (post-announcement)
    External reception confirms the marketing logic
    Quebec City Mayor Bruno Marchand tells reporters he is “very happy” with the decision and describes the previous High Frequency Rail project as “crap.” The reception confirms the public-engagement logic the internal briefing notes had set out: openness to higher speeds, scepticism of the high-frequency framing. What the marketing analysis did not address — and what the parliamentary process was meant to produce — was the cost, documents, and VIA-impact scrutiny the committee had asked for to accompany such a change.
    May 26, 2025
    45th Parliament summoned
    New session begins. The TRAN committee is reconstituted with different membership and no obligation to revisit the prior committee’s work. Recommendations are not formally re-adopted.
    May 28, 2025
    Cossette contract reporting published
    The Canadian Press and The Globe and Mail publish parallel reports based on Access to Information disclosures: “Via Rail subsidiary paid Quebec marketing firm $330K as it pivoted to high-speed rail.” The rebrand’s marketing-led, public-opinion-management basis is now on the public record — two days after the new Parliament is summoned, and six months before Bill C-15 is tabled.
    November 2025
    Bill C-15 tabled
    Budget Implementation Act, 2025, No. 1 introduced. Division 1 of Part 5 enacts the High-Speed Rail Network Act — the project-specific statute that grants ALTO Agent of the Crown status, declares the railways works for the general advantage of Canada, and modifies the standard Expropriation Act regime.
    February 12, 2026
    Senate TRCM Second Report
    Standing Senate Committee on Transport and Communications completes a hurried subject-matter study of the relevant divisions of Bill C-15. It raises several of the same concerns about VIA, ridership, and expropriation that TRAN Report 18 had raised — but it is reviewing legislation already in motion, not pre-legislative work shaping the project’s design.
    March 26, 2026
    Bill C-15 receives royal assent
    The HSRN Act becomes law — without the cost analysis (Rec. 4), the JPO report release (Rec. 6), the VIA-impact analysis (Rec. 8), or the no-service-reduction commitment (Rec. 10) that TRAN Report 18 had asked for. The public-opinion analysis on which the marketing-led case for the rebrand rested has not been placed before Parliament for scrutiny.
    April 22, 2026
    Q-923 answered
    The Minister of Transport’s answer to Order Paper Question Q-923 (Lawrence) puts forward three numerical claims — on cost, ridership, and subsidies — that the unanswered TRAN recommendations were specifically designed to make publicly testable. See the companion brief Reading the Answer.
    Why the Erasure Matters

    Four substantive questions, voided procedurally

    Prorogation is a normal feature of Westminster parliamentary government. It is not, in itself, exceptional. What is worth examining is the combination of three things — a substantive bipartisan committee report, an explicit government commitment to respond, and a project redesignation followed by prorogation in the narrow window between the commitment and its fulfilment — and the result that the questions remain unanswered today.

    On cost

    Recommendation 4 asked specifically for the cost difference between HFR and HSR. The redesignation made the comparison more important, not less. It was not produced. The $60–90 billion AACE Class 5 figure in Q-923 now stands as the public record on ALTO’s cost.

    On preparatory work

    Recommendation 6 asked for the JPO’s full unredacted report. The work it commissioned — ~$18 million in engineering studies, consultancies, financial advice — remains outside public view. ALTO is proceeding on the basis of analysis the public, including parliamentarians, has not seen.

    On VIA

    Recommendations 8 and 10 asked, twice, that the dedicated line not reduce VIA service to existing communities. The analysis has not been produced. The commitment has not been given. The same question was raised again by the Senate, and again by MP Dan Muys at committee on February 23, 2026. Asked at least three times across two chambers; not answered.

    On the procurement model

    Recommendation 5 asked for analysis of successful publicly operated HSR systems before the procurement model was locked in. The procurement (Cadence P3) proceeded before the analysis the committee called for was produced.

    The TRAN committee asked the right questions in the right order: cost analysis before the procurement was locked in, preparatory documents released before the project advanced, VIA-service impact studied before a dedicated line was built. The corporation it asked had, by then, already been paying a marketing firm for a year to rebrand the project in a different direction. The procedural sequence that followed — the unmet October 2024 commitment, the formal December 2024 designation document, the January 2025 prorogation, and the eventual royal assent of legislation enacted without the committee’s recommendations being answered — meant that the question of whether the rebrand should have been accompanied by the analyses the committee had asked for never had to be answered substantively before the project moved forward. None of these events is uniquely attributable to any one government, party, or process. What is documented here is that, taken together, they produced an outcome in which a $60–90 billion infrastructure commitment was given its enabling legislation without the parliamentary scrutiny the public record shows Parliament’s own committee had asked for.

    Is This Reversible?

    Four mechanisms that remain available

    The erasure of TRAN Report 18 is procedural rather than substantive. The witness evidence remains in the parliamentary record. The recommendations remain in the tabled report. The unanswered questions remain unanswered — but they have not become unaskable.

    The current TRAN committee

    could adopt a motion to revive the relevant recommendations from Report 18, formally request the response that was not provided in the 44th Parliament, and update the recommendations to reflect the HFR–to–HSR redesignation. The underlying evidence is already on the record; no new hearings would be required.

    A Senate motion

    could request government responses to the substantive recommendations of TRAN Report 18 that bear on questions now governed by the HSRN Act. The Senate’s February 2026 TRCM Second Report already echoed several of the same concerns; a follow-up motion tying them to the unanswered House recommendations would establish bicameral pressure.

    Order Paper questions

    can ask directly why specific recommendations have not been answered. Q-923 (Lawrence) and Q-1191 (Reid) have begun this work in the 45th Parliament; explicitly naming the recommendations of Report 18 would put the procedural-erasure question on the parliamentary record.

    Access to Information

    applications can target the JPO report, the December 16, 2024 HFR–to–HSR briefing note (AY-2024-537411), and the technical record Recommendation 6 had asked be made public. These are sympathetic targets because Parliament’s own committee already formally requested release.

    None of these mechanisms requires the government’s cooperation. Each is available to opposition members of either chamber, and to citizens whose Access to Information rights cover the underlying documents. The erasure of the report is reversible if the political will to revive it exists.

    Download Full Brief
    The Report That Vanished (PDF)
    Reference document for federal decision-makers, parliamentarians, journalists, and constituents tracking the file
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    Sources

    Primary documents and references

    1.
    House of Commons Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities. Issues and Opportunities: High Frequency Rail in the Toronto to Quebec City Corridor. 18th Report, 44th Parliament, 1st Session. Tabled September 2024. ourcommons.ca
    2.
    Transport Canada. Deputy Minister briefing materials (TRAN), October 10, 2024. tc.canada.ca
    3.
    House of Commons Standing Committee on Audit and Oversight (SAMA). Public materials on procedural effects of prorogation, 44th Parliament. parl.ca
    4.
    Standing Senate Committee on Transport and Communications. Second Report on Bill C-15 (subject-matter study), February 12, 2026. sencanada.ca
    5.
    Budget Implementation Act, 2025, No. 1 (Bill C-15), Statutes of Canada 2026, c. 3. Royal assent March 26, 2026. The High-Speed Rail Network Act is enacted as Division 1 of Part 5. parl.ca
    6.
    Order Paper Question Q-923, 45th Parliament, 1st session. Asked by Philip Lawrence (Northumberland–Clarke), March 5, 2026; answered April 22, 2026. ourcommons.ca
    7.
    The Canadian Press, “Via Rail subsidiary paid Quebec marketing firm $330K as it pivoted to high-speed rail,” May 28, 2025. The Globe and Mail published a parallel report on the same Access to Information disclosures the same day. The reporting includes verbatim excerpts from internal VIA HFR–VIA TGF Inc. briefing notes and Cossette Communication Inc. presentations referenced in this brief. theglobeandmail.com
    8.
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative companion briefs: Reading the Footnote (May 2026); Reading the Answer (May 2026); What We Know About ALTO’s Reporting and Accountability (May 2026).
  • Two targets

    Two Targets

    Ridership figures in ALTO’s 2025-26 Corporate Plan and current public materials, side by side.

    In current ALTO materials

    ALTO’s Corporate Plan Summary 2025-2026 to 2029-30 — the formal accountability document submitted to the Minister of Transport for Treasury Board approval, signed by the Chief Financial Officer in January 2025 — cites a Project Outcome of at least 17 million annual passenger trips by 2059, defined to include “both Alto Passenger Rail Services and Local Services.”

    ALTO’s consultation website, as of May 6, 2026, continues to host a CEO opinion piece projecting 24 million passengers annually by 2055, “fully consistent with international outcomes.” A Globe and Mail editorial citing the same source extended this to 43 million by the 2080s. altotrain.ca

    Summary

    Two ridership figures currently appear in ALTO documents. The figure listed as Project Outcome #1 in the Corporate Plan submitted for Treasury Board approval is 17 million by 2059, defined to include both Alto Passenger Rail Services and the continuation of VIA Rail’s conventional Local Services. The figure in current public-facing materials is 24 million by 2055, rising to 43 million by 2084, presented in reference to Alto.

    The 17 million figure is the same target set in the 2023 Request for Qualifications, when the project was specified as 177 km/h High Frequency Rail at an estimated capital cost of $27.7 billion. It carries forward into the current Corporate Plan, which describes the project as 300 km/h high-speed rail at a Class 4 capital cost estimate of $60–90 billion. The Corporate Plan does not record a formal revision of the figure when the specification changed.

    This brief sets out what each document says, when each figure was published, and what other publicly available evidence indicates about ridership at the corridor scale. It does not draw conclusions about which figure is the operative one. The purpose is to make the documentary record visible.

    Download
    Two Targets — Full Brief (PDF)
    Documentary record of ALTO ridership figures across 2021–2026 publications
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    The Setting

    Why ridership figures matter for accountability

    A megaproject’s ridership projection anchors several other figures: the revenue model, the benefit-cost ratio, the modal-shift carbon argument, and the agglomeration economic case. When a ridership projection moves, related figures move with it.

    For ALTO, two ridership figures are currently visible in the public record. They appear in different documents, communicated to different audiences. This brief sets the two figures alongside each other, with the document trail and the available comparator evidence, and identifies the questions that would resolve which figure is the operative one.

    The brief is not an assessment of either figure on the merits. It is an assemblage of what has been published, in chronological order, with the structural definitions of each figure made explicit. Readers are invited to draw their own conclusions.

    A note on dating the Corporate Plan

    The Corporate Plan Summary 2025-26 to 2029-30 carries a CFO attestation dated January 7, 2025. Several elements of its content, however, post-date that signature: it describes the February 2025 HSR announcement and Cadence selection, the March 2025 PDA execution, Stage 1 of Co-Development as having “occurred from April 2025 to July 2025,” and workforce figures “as of May 2025.” Appendix 12’s chronology ends with August 2025. The document was therefore finalised in approximately mid-2025, with the CFO attestation date preserved as the formal accountability anchor. References in this brief to the Corporate Plan should be read with that timing in mind.

    Side by Side

    The two figures, in their own words

    Both figures appear in current ALTO materials. Both are being communicated to different audiences in May 2026.

    Public Materials · May 6, 2026Corporate Plan to Treasury Board · 2025-26
    24 million by 2055, rising to 43 million by 2084

    From the Imbleau opinion piece originally published in the Toronto Star and La Presse on April 17, 2026, reposted on the consultation site as of May 6, 2026:

    “Alto’s projected 24 million passengers annually by 2055 is fully consistent with international outcomes, based on the modelling used worldwide.”

    The Globe and Mail editorial citing the same source extended this to “43 million by the 2080s, up from three million today.”

    This figure is referenced in connection with the project’s benefit-cost claims, the 1.1% GDP uplift estimate, and the 50,000-job projection.
    At least 17 million by 2059

    From the Corporate Plan Summary 2025-26 to 2029-30, Project Outcome #1, signed by the CFO January 7, 2025:

    “Significantly Increase Intercity Rail Passengers to at least 17 million by 2059 through both the new passenger rail services (NPRS Services) and Local Services through increased annual seat capacity.”

    The same figure appears in Appendix 9 (Long-term Outcomes) as: “up from 4.8 million in 2019, including both Alto Passenger Rail Services and Local Services.”

    This is the figure listed as a Project Outcome in the document submitted for Treasury Board approval.

    Three observations about the two figures, drawn from the documents themselves:

    The 17 million figure includes Local Services

    The Corporate Plan target counts “Alto Passenger Rail Services and Local Services” together. Local Services is the planning term, defined in the Corporate Plan’s glossary, for VIA Rail’s continuing conventional service in the Quebec City–Windsor corridor. The 24 million public figure, as presented, is referenced in connection with Alto. The two figures therefore measure across different scopes.

    The 17 million figure carries forward unchanged from the 2023 RFQ

    17 million by 2059 was the Project Outcome attached to the 2023 Request for Qualifications, when the project was specified as 177 km/h High Frequency Rail at an estimated capital cost of $27.7 billion. The same figure, with the same target year, appears in the Corporate Plan that describes the project as 300 km/h high-speed rail at a Class 4 cost estimate of $60–90 billion. Project Outcomes are formally established in procurement documents and are not trivially revised; the Corporate Plan does not record a revision to this figure on either the specification change or the cost-envelope change.

    The two figures use different baseline years

    The Corporate Plan cites a 4.8 million baseline from 2019 (pre-COVID). The Imbleau opinion piece cites “three million today.” VIA Rail’s 2024 Annual Report records 4.19 million corridor passengers, of which 3.34 million on Corridor East. The growth multiplier from each baseline to its corresponding target therefore differs.

    Document Trail

    When each figure was published

    The chronology below sets out the principal ALTO ridership figures in the public record, in order of publication.

    DateDocumentHeadline ridership figure
    December 2021 JPO Business Case Update v.002
    VIA / CIB internal (released via ATI, November 2025)
    405M cumulative30-year cumulative trips 2030–2059 for HFR Electric scenario, an average of approximately 13.5 million per year. BCR ~ 0.4. NPV −$21.1 billion.
    February 2023 Request for Qualifications (HFR)
    PSPC, 126 pp.
    17M by 2059The Project Outcome attached to the 177 km/h HFR specification at an approximate $27.7B capital cost. Zero operating subsidy was a parallel commitment.
    February 2025 HSR announcement
    Government of Canada
    Specification changeProject rebranded from 177 km/h HFR to 300 km/h HSR. Cadence selected as Private Developer Partner. $3.9B Co-Development Phase funding announced.
    March 2025 Fast Forward: Shaping Canada’s Future
    ALTO public document
    24M by 2055
    43M by 2084
    Stated baseline of “3 million today.” Used in subsequent ALTO public materials and consultation graphics; cited in the Globe and Mail editorial.
    CFO signature
    Jan 7, 2025
    (finalised
    mid-2025)
    Corporate Plan Summary 2025-26 to 2029-30
    Treasury Board submission
    17M by 2059Listed as Project Outcome #1. Defined to include “both Alto Passenger Rail Services and Local Services.” 4.8M (2019) baseline. CFO attestation dated January 7, 2025; document content references events through summer 2025.
    April 17, 2026 Imbleau opinion piece
    Toronto Star · La Presse · ALTO website
    24M by 2055Published one week before the consultation deadline. Described as “fully consistent with international outcomes, based on the modelling used worldwide.” Reposted on ALTO’s consultation site, where it remains as of May 6, 2026.

    The chronology has a feature worth surfacing on its own. The 24 million and 43 million figures first appear in the Fast Forward document of March 2025. The Corporate Plan, finalised in approximately mid-2025, references only the 17 million figure as a Project Outcome and does not mention, footnote, or otherwise acknowledge the higher Fast Forward figures. The April 2026 Imbleau opinion piece reverts to the 24 million figure for public-facing communications.

    In other words: since at least March 2025, the two figures have been running on parallel tracks. The lower figure has appeared in formal accountability documents (the Corporate Plan submitted for Treasury Board approval). The higher figure has appeared in public-facing communications (the Fast Forward document, the consultation website, the CEO’s opinion pieces, and external commentary citing them). Neither document has reconciled the two, and neither has stated which is the operative ridership target.

    Adjacent Disclosure

    The cost figure, in the same period

    The Imbleau opinion piece of April 17, 2026 contains the following statement on the project’s capital cost:

    “In order to finalize project cost, we need to know what is being built and where. We must choose the best alignment through consultation. Then comes detailed engineering for bridges, tunnels and the design; a 320 km/h train requires millimeter level precision.”

    The publicly cited Class 4 capital cost estimate is $60–90 billion. The Co-Development Phase funding of $3.9 billion has been approved and is being expended over fiscal years 2024-25 to 2029-30 per the Corporate Plan. The CEO’s statement above appears in the same publication on the same day as the 24 million ridership figure cited earlier in this brief.

    This brief makes no inference about the relationship between the cost statement and the ridership figures. They are presented here together because they appear in the same document and are part of the documentary record currently available to the public.

    Comparator Evidence

    Other publicly available ridership analyses for the corridor

    For context, three additional sources of corridor ridership analysis are part of the public record. Each uses a different methodology and a different scope.

    Munk School Global Economic Policy Lab (Toronto–Montréal segment only)

    The University of Toronto’s Global Economic Policy Lab published an analysis projecting 9.44 million annual passengers by year 20 and 10.45 million by year 30 on the Toronto–Montréal segment, which the GEPL identified as generating 57% of total corridor ridership. Scaled to the full corridor on the GEPL’s own segment-share assumption, this implies approximately 16–17 million by year 20. This is the only independent academic modelling exercise for the corridor that has been published with a disclosed methodology.

    JPO Business Case Update v.002 (December 2021, ATI release)

    The Joint Project Office Business Case Update released through Access to Information by the Canada Infrastructure Bank in November 2025 projects 405 million cumulative trips over 30 years (2030–2059) for the HFR Electric scenario, an average of approximately 13.5 million per year. The same document records a benefit-cost ratio of approximately 0.4 and a 30-year NPV of −$21.1 billion against a $27.7B capital cost baseline.

    VIA Rail Annual Report 2024 (current corridor baseline)

    The most recent published actual corridor ridership figure is 4,191,080 passengers in 2024, of which 3,336,057 on Corridor East (Quebec City–Toronto). The Montréal–Ottawa–Toronto segment alone carried 2,314,024 passengers. These figures were achieved with on-time performance averaging 51% for the year.

    No reconciliation between the ALTO 17 million Corporate Plan figure, the ALTO 24 million public figure, and these comparator analyses has been published.

    From the Documentary Record

    Five things visible in the public record

    Without drawing inferences about motive or intent, five observations can be made directly from the documents reviewed for this brief.

    1. The two figures have been running on parallel tracks since March 2025

    The 24 million figure was introduced in the Fast Forward document of March 2025. The Corporate Plan was finalised in approximately mid-2025; it references only the 17 million figure as a Project Outcome and does not mention or footnote the Fast Forward figures. Both figures remain in active circulation in May 2026: the 17 million figure in the Corporate Plan, the 24 million figure in the consultation website and the CEO’s April 2026 opinion piece.

    2. The two figures have different scopes

    The 17 million figure is defined as “Alto Passenger Rail Services and Local Services” combined. The 24 million figure, as presented in the Imbleau opinion piece, references Alto. The Corporate Plan does not break the 17 million figure into Alto-component and Local-Services-component shares.

    3. The 17 million figure was set under the previous specification

    17 million by 2059 was the Project Outcome attached to the 2023 RFQ for the 177 km/h HFR specification at $27.7B. The same figure carries forward into the Corporate Plan that describes the project as 300 km/h HSR at $60–90B, without a recorded revision to the target.

    4. The capital cost is also presented as a working figure

    The CEO has publicly stated that “in order to finalize project cost, we need to know what is being built and where.” The Class 4 estimate of $60–90 billion is, on this account, a working figure pending corridor selection and detailed engineering. The Co-Development Phase funding of $3.9 billion has been approved and is being expended.

    5. Independent ridership review remains unpublished

    The Parliamentary Budget Officer has not published a review of either the cost or the ridership figures. The only independent academic modelling exercise for the corridor with a disclosed methodology, the Munk School GEPL analysis, projects approximately 16–17 million for the full corridor by year 20 of operation.

    Where things stand · May 6, 2026

    Disclosure ledger

    The following items are, or are not, currently in the public record.

    Disclosed
    Corporate Plan ridership figure: 17 million by 2059, including Alto Passenger Rail Services and Local Services. Corporate Plan Summary 2025-26 to 2029-30, Project Outcome #1.
    Disclosed
    Public-facing ridership figure: 24 million by 2055, rising to 43 million by 2084. Fast Forward (March 2025); Imbleau opinion piece (April 2026); ALTO consultation website (current).
    Partial
    Definition of the 17M target. Disclosed in Appendix 9 of the Corporate Plan as including Local Services, but not surfaced in summary communications about the figure.
    Not disclosed
    Demand modelling methodology for either the 17 million or the 24 million figure. No model documentation, elasticity assumptions, modal-shift coefficients, or sensitivity analysis has been published for either figure.
    Not disclosed
    Reconciliation between the two figures. No public ALTO statement explaining the relationship between the Corporate Plan figure and the public-marketing figure, or stating which is intended to be the operative ridership target.
    Not disclosed
    The Alto-only share of the 17M target. The Corporate Plan does not break the 17 million into the share attributable to high-speed services and the share attributable to Local Services.
    Not disclosed
    Updated benefit-cost ratio for the current 300 km/h HSR specification at $60–90 billion capital cost against the 17M ridership target. The last published BCR (~0.4) was calculated against the $27.7B HFR specification.
    Not disclosed
    Door-to-door journey time projection from representative origin points, accounting for the now-likely suburban Toronto station and Tremblay Ottawa terminus. The 24M figure is presumed to assume downtown-to-downtown service that is no longer the operating reality.
    Not disclosed
    Independent demand audit results from the Parliamentary Budget Officer or comparable independent body, against either the 17M or the 24M figure.
    Download Full Brief
    Two Targets (PDF)
    Documentary record of ALTO ridership figures, with comparator analyses
    Download PDF
    Questions for the Minister and the PBO

    Six questions that would resolve the disclosure gaps

    The following questions, addressed to the Minister of Transport and to the Parliamentary Budget Officer, would surface the items currently undisclosed.

    Question 1 “Which is ALTO’s operative ridership target: the 17 million by 2059 figure in the Corporate Plan submitted for Treasury Board approval, or the 24 million by 2055 figure in the Corporation’s consultation materials and the CEO’s opinion pieces?”
    Question 2 “Will ALTO publish a breakdown of the 17 million Project Outcome figure into the share attributable to Alto Passenger Rail Services and the share attributable to Local Services?”
    Question 3 “Will ALTO publish the demand modelling methodology, elasticity assumptions, modal-shift coefficients, and sensitivity ranges underpinning both the 17 million and the 24 million figures?”
    Question 4 “What is the updated benefit-cost ratio for the current 300 km/h high-speed rail specification at the Class 4 capital cost estimate of $60–90 billion, calculated against the 17 million Treasury Board ridership target?”
    Question 5 “Has the Parliamentary Budget Officer been asked to review the ridership and cost figures underpinning ALTO’s benefit-cost case, and if so, what is the expected timeline for publication of that review?”
    Question 6 “Given the Corporation’s acknowledgment that ‘in order to finalize project cost, we need to know what is being built and where,’ what is the formal status of the $60–90 billion capital cost figure relative to the $3.9 billion in Co-Development Phase funding already committed?”
    Sources

    Primary documents

    1.
    VIA HFR–VIA TGF Inc. (Alto), “Corporate Plan Summary 2025-2026 to 2029-30,” submitted to the Minister of Transport for Treasury Board approval, signed by the Chief Financial Officer January 7, 2025. Project Outcome #1 (Executive Summary, Appendix 2, Appendix 9, Appendix 13).
    2.
    Martin Imbleau, “High-speed rail is not a leap of faith: Why it matters for Canada’s growth,” opinion piece published Toronto Star and La Presse, April 17, 2026; reposted on ALTO consultation website. altotrain.ca (retrieved May 6, 2026)
    3.
    ALTO, “Fast Forward: Shaping Canada’s Future with a High-Speed Rail Network,” explanatory document, March 2025.
    4.
    Public Services and Procurement Canada, “Request for Qualifications — High Frequency Rail Project (RFQ No. T8128-210188/C),” February 17, 2023. Project Outcomes including 17M ridership by 2059 and zero operating subsidy. 126 pages.
    5.
    VIA Rail Canada / Canada Infrastructure Bank, “JPO Business Case Update v.002,” December 2021. Released through Access to Information by CIB, November 2025. Source for 405M cumulative trips, BCR ~0.4, and 30-year NPV of −$21.1B for HFR Electric option.
    6.
    VIA Rail Canada, “Annual Report 2024,” published 2025. 2024 actual corridor ridership: 4,191,080 passengers; Corridor East subtotal: 3,336,057; Montréal–Ottawa–Toronto segment: 2,314,024.
    7.
    The Globe and Mail, editorial referencing ALTO ridership projections: “projected ridership numbers – 24 million trips annually, in the 2050s, rising to 43 million by the 2080s, up from three million today.”
    8.
    Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, University of Toronto, Global Economic Policy Lab analysis of Toronto–Montréal HSR ridership: 9.44 million by year 20; 10.45 million by year 30 on Toronto–Montréal segment (57% of corridor).