Tag: Kingston

  • Counting the crossings

    Counting the Crossings

    ALTO says it will not wall off communities, and points to France and Spain. Those countries did something else as well, and the letter leaves it out.

    ⚠ What ALTO Told Kingston Readers

    On 14 August 2026, a letter in the Kingston Whig-Standard from ALTO’s Chief Project Management Officer and Cadence’s Project Director told corridor residents the railway “will not create a wall between communities”, nor a barrier to wildlife or water. As proof it can be done, the letter offered two numbers: France has built more than 4,000 structures across roughly 2,700 km of high-speed line, and Spain more than 900 across roughly 750 km.

    The letter does not mention Kingston, the route, where stations would go, what any of it costs, or expropriation. It does say preserving access has been a key principle from the beginning. ALTO’s own Preserving Access and Movement page carries a last-modified date of 7 May 2026 — after the consultation closed on 24 April.

    The Short Version

    Take ALTO’s own figures and divide them through. France works out to about one structure every 675 metres. Spain, about one every 833 metres. Those are the rates being offered as reassurance.

    The trouble is that a count of structures built tells you nothing about how many crossings were closed. A railway can put in 900 bridges and still cut off 3,000 field entrances, farm lanes and township roads. The letter gives the top half of the fraction and leaves out the bottom.

    Kingstonians already have ALTO’s own answer to this. In February 2026, ALTO’s Vice-President of Systems Engineering told Kingston City Council that crossings would be consolidated to bring costs down, and that the company would try to limit how many overpasses get built. That was six months before the letter, to the same city, on the same subject.

    There is a larger omission. France did not solve farm severance with bridges. It has a legal procedure that lets the state reorganise the surrounding farmland so that a farm cut in two can be put back into a workable shape, paid for by the project. On one French high-speed line, 3,700 hectares of land were bought up in advance so that farmers could be compensated in land rather than only in cash. Ontario has nothing of the kind.

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    Counting the Crossings — Full Brief (PDF)
    The arithmetic behind ALTO’s France and Spain comparison, and the land instrument the letter leaves out

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    The Arithmetic

    What ALTO’s own numbers work out to

    Neither figure in the letter is disputed here. They are simply divided through. A structure count only becomes meaningful once you know how far apart the structures are, and how far apart the things they are meant to replace used to be.

    ~675 m
    average gap between structures on the French network, using ALTO’s figures
    4,000 structures over 2,700 km
    ~833 m
    average gap on the Spanish line ALTO cites
    900 structures over 750 km
    1.25–2 km
    typical spacing of public roads across eastern Ontario’s concession grid
    before counting farm lanes and driveways

    There is a third number the letter does not offer, and it cuts the other way. HS2 in Britain is the most recent comparable project of this kind: a brand-new high-speed line built through peri-urban and rural England. Its first phase runs about 225 km and will carry more than 500 bridging structures, including over 50 major viaducts — roughly one structure every 450 m. That is about half again the French rate, through country a good deal more built up than eastern Ontario. The most recent comparable project provided more, not fewer, than the average ALTO offers as reassurance.

    The spread between the three is itself worth noticing. A fifty per cent difference between two European networks tells you that these totals are governed by terrain, by how much of a route sits in tunnel or on viaduct, and by what each project counts as a structure. About nine tenths of HS2’s first phase runs in tunnel, in cutting or on structures, so a large share of those 500 exist to carry the railway over the landscape rather than to carry a community across the railway. A structure count is a construction statistic, not a standard of community access.

    Eastern Ontario was surveyed on a grid. Roads run at regular intervals, and between them sit farm lanes, private driveways and municipal drains. Whether a European average is enough for that grid is exactly the question people along the corridor are asking. Quoting the French figure does not answer it. It assumes the answer.

    There is a comparison closer to home that nobody has yet made. Highway 416 is a modern, fully grade-separated corridor built through the same survey grid, the same farmland and several of the same municipalities. How many crossings Ontario provided on that road is not something this brief has established, but it is the obvious yardstick, and it ought to be established before a French average is relied on.

    The Missing Number

    How many roads are we talking about?

    The denominator is not actually a mystery. Canada’s own transport department has published it.

    In a briefing note prepared for a Parliamentary committee in March 2023, Transport Canada set out what a full high-speed line between Québec City and Toronto would require: a fully enclosed and fenced corridor, a straighter alignment, double tracking throughout, and complete grade separation on a route that currently carries more than 1,000 public and private crossings.

    That figure described the northern route, through comparatively empty country — Canadian Shield, wetlands, big rural lots. The southern corridor now being prioritised runs through some of the most intensively farmed land in eastern Ontario, where the concession grid is tightest. On the southern option, 1,000 is more likely a floor than a ceiling.

    The Initiative’s own road severance analysis puts the proportion of crossings permanently closed rather than bridged on rural high-speed corridors at somewhere between 30 and 60 per cent. Applied to a floor of 1,000, that is 300 to 600 roads dead-ended — our estimate, not a figure ALTO or Transport Canada has published.

    1,000+
    public and private crossings on the alignment
    Transport Canada, March 2023
    300–600
    roads likely closed, on the Initiative’s estimate
    30 to 60 per cent of crossings
    $3.2–8.4B
    Initiative’s estimated cost of the crossings that would be built
    never shown as a separate line

    That last figure matters for a different reason. Grade separation is one of the most expensive parts of any high-speed corridor, and a sum of that size has never appeared as its own line in ALTO’s published capital estimate. Neither has any methodology explaining how many crossings will be built, or to what standard, or how it will be decided which roads are simply stopped up.

    The reassurance in the August letter is offered in the absence of the one document that could support it. Further detail is set out in the Initiative’s technical analysis of road severances.

    On the Record

    What ALTO told Kingston in February

    Six months before this letter appeared in Kingston’s paper, ALTO’s Vice-President of Systems Engineering and Interface sat before Kingston City Council and was asked about exactly this. The transcript is the fullest account ALTO has given in public of how it approaches road crossings, and it does not read the way the letter does.

    The reassurance

    Asked by a councillor whether there would be a standard distance between crossings, he described a working assumption that every road would get some form of duct or overpass, since the roads belong to municipalities or road authorities and cannot be cut unilaterally.

    The qualification, in the same answer

    He went on to say that in reality some crossings would be looked at for consolidation, to lower costs and improve construction, subject to discussion with the road authority.

    The objective

    Pressed by the Deputy Mayor, he set it out plainly: grade separations would vary by area, would be settled during route selection, and ALTO would “try and limit the number of overpasses that we’ll need to get created”.

    And the fencing

    He confirmed that modern high-speed rail must be completely segregated and fully fenced anywhere level access is possible, whether the line runs at 200 or 300 km/h.

    Read together: a starting assumption that is subject to cost-driven consolidation, an explicit goal of building as few overpasses as possible, and continuous fencing between whatever crossings survive.

    The councillor’s actual question — is there a standard distance between crossings — was not answered, and no standard has been published since. February’s statements and August’s letter were addressed to the same city.

    Three Problems

    Why the structure count does not settle it

    You are being shown half a fraction

    The number that answers the severance question is a ratio: structures built, divided by accesses cut off. The letter supplies only the first. Every complaint recorded by French and Spanish farmers over the last forty years is perfectly compatible with the figures quoted.

    Not every structure reconnects anything

    “Engineering structures” and “viaducts” include everything the railway needs to build itself: bridges over rivers, crossings of existing motorways and railways, tunnels through hills. A viaduct over a river gorge restores nobody’s access to their back field. How many of the 4,000 exist to reconnect a severed local road or laneway is not stated, and is certainly a much smaller number.

    A different landscape

    The French network largely runs through consolidated farming country. Eastern Ontario is a survey grid of concession roads, side roads, long farm lots and dead ends. The same rate of crossings produces a very different result depending on how much there was to cross in the first place.

    The Missing Piece

    What France also built

    The most important thing missing from the letter is not a number. It is a law.

    Two of the countries with the longest high-speed rail experience did not leave farm access to be worked out project by project. They legislated it. France did so through its rural code; Germany passed a federal land consolidation statute in 1953 that covers exactly this situation. In both, farmers sit on the body that decides, that body can compulsorily redraw the farms and the farm tracks together, the proponent pays, and there is a right of appeal to the courts.

    France has a statutory procedure called aménagement foncier agricole et forestier — land reorganisation, formerly known as remembrement. Its stated purpose includes repairing the damage that major linear projects, high-speed railways among them, do to rural land. Where a line slices a farm in half, the surrounding parcels can be legally reorganised so that holdings are handed back in a shape a farmer can actually work. Local commissions run it under departmental authority, and the project pays for it.

    Land is also bought up ahead of time. A national rural land agency, SAFER, holds first refusal on farmland coming up for sale, so that displaced farmers can be given land instead of only a cheque. Spain has its own version of the same idea.

    This matters for who gets a say. In Canada there is no seat and no statutory role. On 4 June 2026 the five organisations representing effectively the whole farm sector in Ontario and Quebec concluded that ALTO’s proposed collaboration agreement was not in their members’ interests to sign. In France they would not have had to negotiate for a place at the table. They would already have had one, in law.

    This is not a minor administrative detail. On the Le Mans to Rennes high-speed line, roughly 3,700 hectares were placed in reserve, with agricultural land bought up as it came to market within three kilometres of the future route. In Ille-et-Vilaine alone, 48.5 km of new railway took about 480 hectares of crops and pasture — and against that, 720 hectares of land reserve were assembled and parcels across some 1,200 hectares either side of the track were reorganised, affecting more than 4,400 landowners, financed by the project and delivered through intercommunal commissions.

    In France and Germany In Ontario
    A legal procedure to reorganise farmland around a new line, whose express purpose includes repairing damage done by major linear infrastructure. No equivalent. There is no statutory land reorganisation for farms severed by infrastructure.
    Farmers hold seats on the deciding body, and decisions can be appealed to the courts. No seat and no statutory role. Five farm organisations declined ALTO’s collaboration agreement in June 2026 rather than accept its terms.
    A rural land agency with first refusal on farmland coming to market, used to assemble land reserves years ahead of construction. No equivalent agency and no statutory land reserve mechanism.
    Local commissions empowered to redraw parcel boundaries, operating under departmental authority. No equivalent body. No one can redraw the neighbours’ boundaries to make a severed farm whole again.
    Compensation in land is possible: a farmer who loses acreage can be given workable acreage back. Compensation in money only, for what is physically taken. Expropriation and negotiated purchase are the available tools.

    So the comparison in the letter is accurate and, at the same time, does not carry over. The French result rests partly on a legal instrument Canada does not have. A letter that cites France’s bridge count while saying nothing about France’s land reorganisation is describing half of how the problem was solved.

    Cadence’s Project Director is quoted in French farming trade coverage of that same Le Mans to Rennes project, explaining that the land reserve had to account for the right-of-way, the land reorganisation and the environmental compensation together.

    That gap is a problem in Canadian law rather than a failing of the project sponsor. It is still a gap, and it has to be closed before European results can reasonably be promised here. Closing it is not something ALTO can do on its own.

    Not Just How Many

    A structure is not automatically an answer

    Even where a crossing is built, two questions decide whether it is any use, and ALTO has published nothing on either.

    Size

    A livestock crossing and a machinery crossing are not the same structure. A standard cattle underpass runs about 2.1 metres high. A modern combine or grain cart needs 4 metres or more. A structure built to the wrong dimension is a closure as far as the equipment is concerned. No minimum dimensions have been published, and no spacing standard.

    Upkeep

    Nobody has decided who maintains these crossings over the decades that follow. ALTO describes its approach as still being developed. France took roughly a decade of litigation and legislation to settle the same question. Municipalities along the corridor have a direct interest in the answer.

    What closure pushes onto the road

    When a farm crossing is extinguished, the equipment does not disappear. It goes onto the public road. By the Ontario Federation of Agriculture’s own figure, slow-moving farm vehicles are 3.8 to 4.8 times more likely to be involved in a fatal collision per kilometre travelled. Severance is therefore also a road-safety question, and one that has not been assessed.

    The Initiative has examined the two halves of this problem separately: road severances and wildlife crossings.

    The Wall

    One claim that cannot be tested as written

    A railway running at over 300 km/h is fully grade-separated and fenced along its entire length. That is what grade separation means. The structure is a continuous barrier by engineering necessity. The real question is where the openings are and how many there are, not whether the barrier exists.

    What ALTO could reasonably promise is that severance will be mitigated at designed crossings, to a stated standard, at a stated spacing. A flat undertaking that no wall will be created is not something anyone can test — and it is a sentence that will be read back to ALTO by every landowner and every township that later finds an access closed.

    The same applies to wildlife. Continuous fencing is a barrier to animals except where crossings are designed in, and how well those crossings get used varies a great deal by species — a question examined at length in the Initiative’s work on wildlife crossings.

    An early study along a Spanish high-speed line, monitoring fifteen underpasses and two overpasses over two years, recorded no deer or wild boar crossings at all. That was 1996, and crossing design has moved on a great deal since; it should not be read as the last word. But the more recent evidence does not settle the question the other way either. A systematic review of crossing structures across roads and railways found that animals did cross them in almost every study examined — and yet a decline in wildlife movement after construction was prevented in fewer than 40 per cent of cases, with many structures poorly built or poorly monitored.

    On Spain’s network the best-documented harm is to birds. Camera monitoring from on board trains estimated 60.5 bird collisions per kilometre per year on a stretch carrying 53 trains a day, and 26.1 on a stretch carrying 25. Later work found the surrounding bird community changing species by species, and uncapped catenary poles acting as pitfall traps for birds that nest in cavities. Anti-birdstrike screens are routinely fitted to viaducts, and how well they work is still being studied.

    None of this says the corridor cannot be crossed by wildlife. It says that whether it can depends on design decisions and monitoring commitments not yet made, and that a flat undertaking given before them is not one a reader can test. Of the three promises, the one about natural water flows is the most straightforward to deliver.

    What Can Be Asked Now

    Six questions ALTO can answer today

    The letter makes commitments specific enough to be checked. None of the following requires a finalised route.

    The ratio
    Against Transport Canada’s figure of more than 1,000 crossings, how many are assumed to get a structure, and how many will be closed?
    Composition
    Of the French and Spanish structures cited, how many exist to reconnect a severed local access, as opposed to carrying the line over a river, motorway or railway?
    Ontario benchmark
    What crossing rate is assumed for the Ontario segments, and how was it arrived at? A comparison with Highway 416 through similar country would be useful to communities along the route.
    Criteria
    What method decides whether a road is bridged or dead-ended, and what detour distance is treated as acceptable in the countryside?
    Cost
    What provision for grade separation sits inside the capital estimate, and why has it never been shown as a separate line?
    Dimensions
    What minimum height and width will agricultural crossings meet, and what spacing standard applies? Will structures be sized for machinery or only for livestock?
    Maintenance
    Who owns and maintains each crossing structure over its life, and who carries that cost — ALTO, Cadence, or the municipality?
    Detours
    Where an access will not be reinstated, how much further will people have to drive to reach the nearest crossing, and what work supports that figure?
    Emergency access
    Which paramedic services and municipal fire departments have been consulted about response routes, on what dates, and what did they find?
    Severed farms
    Is any land reorganisation or land reserve contemplated for farms cut in two, and under what legal authority would it operate?

    The letter is right that decades of international experience exist and should be drawn on. The difficulty is that it draws on one half of that experience and leaves out the other. France built more than four thousand structures. France also rebuilt the farms. The second of those depended on machinery Ontario does not have, and no number of overpasses substitutes for it. Meanwhile the company’s own engineering executive has told this city’s council that the aim is to build as few overpasses as it can.

    Download Full Brief
    Counting the Crossings (PDF)
    Full analysis for municipal councils, farm organisations, MPs and residents along the corridor — with the per-kilometre working, the French statutory provisions and the complete source list

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    How to read the numbers on this page

    The French and Spanish structure counts are as given in the 14 August letter and used here as stated. The Transport Canada crossing count, the HS2 figures, the Kingston council statements, the French statutory provisions, the HS2 petition figures, the emergency-response research and the wildlife findings are all quoted from the sources listed below and can be checked there.

    Everything else is our own calculation or estimate, and is marked as such where it appears: the per-kilometre and spacing rates, the 30 to 60 per cent closure proportion and the 300 to 600 closures that follow from it, the $3.2 to $8.4 billion grade-separation range, and the detour arithmetic. Where ALTO or Transport Canada has not published a figure, we say so rather than inferring one, and we make no claim about what anyone knew or intended.

    Sources

    Primary documents and statements

    1.

    Maria Luisa Dominguez and Loïc Dorbec, “Building on decades of high-speed rail experience,” letter to the editor, Kingston Whig-Standard, 14 August 2026. Structure and length figures for France and Spain are as stated in that letter and are used here as given; the per-kilometre rates are the Initiative’s arithmetic.
    2.

    Chambres d’agriculture France, on aménagement foncier agricole et forestier and its role in repairing disruption caused to rural land by the route of major linear works, high-speed railways included. chambres-agriculture.fr
    3.

    Département d’Ille-et-Vilaine, on the LGV Bretagne–Pays de la Loire land reorganisation and land reserve programme: 48.5 km of new line, 480 ha absorbed, 720 ha of reserve constituted, 1,200 ha of parcels reorganised, more than 4,400 landowners affected, financed by the project owner. cg35.fr
    4.

    WikiAgri, on the land reserves assembled through SAFER for the Le Mans–Rennes high-speed line: approximately 3,700 ha placed in reserve, with agricultural land pre-empted within three kilometres of the future alignment. Contains the quoted remarks of Cadence’s Project Director on the composition of that reserve. wikiagri.fr
    5.

    Transport Canada, TRAN Committee Appearance Binder, Item 15: High Frequency Rail, 7 March 2023 — source of the figure of more than 1,000 public and private crossings on the alignment.
    6.

    City of Kingston, Council meeting of 17 February 2026, closed-captioning transcript — remarks of ALTO’s Vice-President of Systems Engineering and Interface on crossing consolidation, overpass numbers and corridor fencing.
    7.

    HS2 Phase 1 structure count: more than 500 bridging structures including over 50 major viaducts, per HS2 Ltd’s head of civils structures, reported in New Civil Engineer, 15 June 2022, and repeated on the Institution of Civil Engineers project page. Route length taken as approximately 225 km; some sources give 208 route km, which would raise the per-kilometre rate rather than lower it.
    8.

    Wildlife. Rodríguez, Crema and Delibes (1996), on underpass and overpass use along Spanish high-speed line. Rytwinski and others, systematic review and meta-analysis of crossing-structure effectiveness, for the finding on movement decline. Barrientos and Borda-de-Água, “Railways as Barriers for Wildlife: Current Knowledge,” in Railway Ecology (Springer, 2017). García de la Morena and others (2017) for the on-board camera collision estimates; Malo and others (2017) on bird response and catenary-pole mortality; and work on high-speed rail and bird-community change published in PLOS One (2024).
    9.

    Erin Durant, “Alto: Which farm roads stay open and who pays?” 16 August 2026 — source for the German Flurbereinigungsgesetz parallel, the seats-and-appeal structure of the French and German commissions, crossing dimensions for livestock versus machinery, the unresolved maintenance question, the OFA slow-moving-vehicle collision figure, and the last-modified metadata on ALTO’s agricultural pages.
    10.

    Joint statement of the Ontario Federation of Agriculture, l’Union des producteurs agricoles, National Farmers Union (Ontario), Christian Farmers Federation of Ontario and Union des cultivateurs franco-ontariens, 16 June 2026, following their 4 June meeting on ALTO’s proposed collaboration agreement.
    11.

    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative, Road severances (technical analysis, March 2026 — source of the closure proportions and grade separation cost range) and Wildlife crossings.
    12.

    Ontario road spacing reflects the concession survey pattern across the corridor study area. Highway 416 is proposed here as a benchmark for comparison; no crossing-provision figure for that corridor has been established for this brief.
  • Would an Alto stop help kingston

    Would an ALTO Stop Help Kingston?

    Kingston has one of the busiest stations on the network. The question that matters is not whether it gets a stop, but whether a stop would leave more people riding the train, or fewer.

    ⚠ What has been said, and what has not been published

    On 22 July 2026 ALTO’s chief executive, Martin Imbleau, told CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning that Kingston will probably get a station, and that most ALTO trains would pass through without stopping.1 Neither the timetable nor the location of the station has been published.

    Those two missing facts are exactly the ones that decide the outcome. This brief therefore tests the range: today’s railway, a faster conventional railway using the existing station, and ALTO with a station either inside the city or a twenty‑seven‑minute drive north of it, at normal fares and at fares 25 per cent higher. Every number that goes into the model is listed, so any of them can be argued with.

    The short answer

    Of the options tested, only one leaves Kingston with more rail trips than it has today: a faster conventional railway serving the existing station, at about 12 per cent more. The best ALTO case — a station inside the city, at normal fares — roughly matches today. Every other ALTO case comes out below today’s service, by 8 to 17 per cent.

    The reason is simple. Speed is only one part of what makes a train trip worth taking. ALTO’s faster run to Toronto is worth about 10 per cent more trips on its own. But cutting the number of daily stops from eighteen to eight gives that back. Charging 25 per cent more gives it back again. Moving the station twenty‑seven minutes north of the city costs another 6 to 8 points on top.

    Running more trains cannot rescue it by itself. Even at eighteen stops a day, matching what Kingston has now, an out‑of‑town station at a premium fare still comes out around 9 per cent below today. And about 8 per cent of Kingston’s trips — Belleville, Brockville, Cobourg, Napanee, Oshawa — have no ALTO equivalent at any frequency, because high‑speed trains do not stop at those places.

    Download
    Kingston’s ALTO Ridership Analysis — Full Brief (PDF)
    Full method, all parameters, sensitivity ranges and break‑even tables
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    The Comparison

    Six versions of Kingston’s railway

    The table below is the whole brief in one place. The first row is what Kingston has today. The second is a faster conventional railway from the same station. The last four are ALTO, differing only in where the station sits and what the ticket costs.

    +12%
    faster conventional railway, existing station, same number of trains, normal fares
    the only option that grows ridership
    0%
    best ALTO case: station in town, normal fares, eight stops a day
    matches today, does not beat it
    −17%
    ALTO station 27 minutes north, eight stops a day, fares 25% higher
    central case for an out‑of‑town station

    Table 1 · Headline comparison

    OptionTo TorontoStops a dayFare premiumAnnual tripsChange
    Today’s service135 min18none450,000
    Faster conventional railway, existing station95 min18none502,000+12%
    ALTO, station in town80 min8none449,0000%
    ALTO, station in town80 min8+25%403,000−10%
    ALTO, 27 min north80 min8none416,000−8%
    ALTO, 27 min north80 min8+25%376,000−17%

    All four ALTO rows assume eight stops a day and that today’s conventional service is withdrawn. They differ only in where the station is and what the ticket costs. No fare structure for intermediate stations has been published, so both possibilities are shown rather than assumed. The faster conventional railway is the 240 km/h new‑build line proposed under the High Performance Rail framework, serving the existing station.

    Starting Point

    Why Kingston already rides the train

    Kingston’s place among the busiest stations on the network gets cited as the reason it should have a high‑speed stop. But what produces that ridership decides whether a different kind of station would reproduce it. Four things do most of the work, and a high‑speed alignment north of the city removes two of them.

    It gets two sets of trains, not one

    Kingston sits halfway along the Toronto–Montréal mainline, and the Toronto–Ottawa trains use the same track as far as Brockville. So Kingston collects two timetables instead of one, and ends up with a level of service beaten only by the three biggest cities on the corridor. Frequency matters to ridership on its own, quite apart from speed: in intercity rail, a 10 per cent increase in service typically brings 4 to 7 per cent more trips.

    The station serves a region, not a city

    Napanee, Gananoque, Amherstview and the western Thousand Islands have no intercity rail of their own, so people drive to Kingston to catch the train. Ridership credited to a city of 132,485 is actually generated by an area several times larger; the Kingston census metropolitan area is 172,546.6

    The population is unusually inclined to take the train

    Some thirty‑nine thousand post‑secondary students study in a city of 132,485: Queen’s enrols 32,585, St. Lawrence College about 4,000 full‑time equivalents at its Kingston campus, and the Royal Military College of Canada 2,418.5 That is about twenty‑nine students for every hundred residents — against roughly twenty‑three in Sherbrooke and twenty‑one in Guelph, the two Canadian cities most often set beside Kingston on this measure.7 Many come from the Toronto and Ottawa regions and travel without a car. Kingston also has a large retired population, for whom avoiding the highway is the point of the trip, and an unusually high share of hospital, university, military and public‑sector jobs where travel is expensed and defaults to rail.

    But that ridership is hard to charge a premium for

    This travel is not spread evenly. It piles up at term boundaries, Thursday and Sunday afternoons, reading weeks and holidays, and it creates a matching flow of families travelling to Kingston. These are the travellers most sensitive to how often trains run and how far the station is from where they are going, and the least able to just drive instead. They are also the least profitable: peaked, price‑sensitive, and largely outside the weekday business hours a high‑speed operation’s revenue depends on.

    Two things worth being clear about

    The ridership figure itself is not published. Kingston’s standing as one of the busiest stations rests on statements by the operator and the Minister, not on released station‑level data. That is the first item on the list of things that should be published, at the end of this brief.

    Existing demand is not the same as new demand. Busy today proves Kingston already travels by train. It does not prove that a different station would generate additional trips. Only new trips add ridership to the corridor.

    There is also no flight from Kingston to Toronto. Elsewhere, high‑speed rail wins its premium passengers off aircraft. In Kingston those passengers are already on the train, so there is nobody to convert. Extra trips can only come out of cars, or be created from nothing.

    Both of the things that built Kingston’s ridership — frequent trains, and a station within the city, roughly ten minutes from the core and the university — are the two things a high‑speed alignment north of the city takes away. That is what the model is built to test.

    Method

    How the numbers were worked out

    Every trip is priced in minutes. Add up the time on the train, the time getting to and from the station at each end, the waiting created by having fewer trains, and the fare converted into minutes using what an hour is worth to that kind of traveller. Time spent driving to a station or standing on a platform counts for more than time sitting on a moving train, because people dislike it more. Journeys that involve changing trains carry an allowance for the change. That matters for one market in particular: ALTO reaches Montréal from Kingston by way of Ottawa, so some of those journeys involve a change, where a direct lakeshore railway does not.

    That total is the real cost of the trip. If it goes up, fewer people travel. If it goes down, more do. The response used here is roughly one for one: make the total 10 per cent better and you get about 10 per cent more trips.

    Travellers are split into four destinations and four types, each divided by whether they have a car available: thirty‑two groups, each worked out separately and then added up. That matters because a student without a car and an expensed public‑sector traveller react to a distant station in completely different ways.

    Table 2 · Everything the model assumes

    InputValue used
    Trips today450,000 a year through the station (tested from 400,000 to 550,000)
    Where people goToronto 58%, Ottawa 22%, Montréal 12%, other corridor stations 8%
    Who travelsStudents 30%, seniors and leisure 25%, public sector 20%, other 25%
    Share without a carStudents 85%, seniors and leisure 50%, public sector 15%, other 20%
    Worth of an hour$14, $20, $48 and $24 respectively, in the same order
    Time on the trainToday 135 / 120 / 160 min; ALTO 80 / 45 / 105 min (Toronto / Ottawa / Montréal)
    Getting to the stationExisting station 10 min by car, 20 by transit; ALTO 27 by car, 35 by shuttle
    How that time is weighted1.5 times if a car is available, 2.0 times if not
    WaitingHalf the gap between trains, weighted at 0.5, across a fifteen‑hour day
    ALTO fare premium25% in the central case; 0% and 40% also tested
    Sensitivity of demandOne for one in the central case (tested from 0.8 to 1.2)

    Far‑end access time is held identical in every scenario, which is a conservative choice: it gives ALTO the benefit of the doubt at the Toronto and Ottawa ends.

    Two possible futures for today’s trains

    Every service level is tested twice, because the answer depends less on ALTO than on what happens to the service Kingston already has.

    Replacement

    ALTO becomes Kingston’s rail service to Toronto, Ottawa and Montréal, and conventional service is withdrawn or cut below a useful level. Trips to Belleville, Brockville, Cobourg, Napanee and Oshawa lose their train altogether.

    Both together

    Today’s service keeps running at present frequency and ALTO is added on top. Travellers pick whichever is cheaper in total, and only the improvement over the better of the two creates new trips.

    What is assumed rather than known

    Four inputs are estimates, not published data: the number of trips today, where those trips go, ALTO’s journey times (the alignment for this stretch has not been published), and where the station would be. All four appear on the list at the end of this brief. The model also applies a constant response to a very large change in trip cost, which is at the outer edge of where this method behaves well. The direction of the results is solid. The exact sizes are indicative.

    Result One

    Where the speed gain goes

    Start with today’s service and change one thing at a time. This is the clearest way to see why a faster train can still end up with fewer passengers.

    Table 3 · One change at a time

    StepAnnual tripsChangeEffect of this step
    Today’s service, as it runs450,000
    Cut the Toronto run to 80 minutes, change nothing else496,000+10%+10 pts
    Cut stops from 18 a day to 8449,0000%−10 pts
    Add a 25 per cent fare premium403,000−10%−10 pts
    Move the station 27 minutes north376,000−17%−6 pts

    The second row is the entire value of high‑speed running time at Kingston: about 10 per cent. Each of the three things that come with it takes back as much or more. This calculation already leaves out trips to other corridor stations, which a high‑speed line cannot serve at any frequency.

    Result Two

    More trains cannot fix it on its own

    Suppose the number of stops is the thing that gets negotiated. Hold the station twenty‑seven minutes north and the fare 25 per cent higher, and vary how often ALTO calls.

    Table 4 · ALTO at a station 27 minutes north

    Stops a dayAnnual tripsChangeRangeIf today’s trains stay
    6359,000−20%−17% to −24%0%
    8376,000−17%−13% to −21%0%
    10387,000−14%−10% to −18%+0.2%
    18408,000−9%−4% to −14%+1.6%
    12 (six each way)394,000−12%−9% to −17%+0.5%
    16 (eight each way)404,000−10%−6% to −15%+1.3%
    20 (ten each way)411,000−9%−3% to −14%+1.9%

    The range covers the whole plausible span of the model’s assumptions, at a 25 per cent fare premium. The bottom three rows read six, eight and ten as stops each way, which is the most generous reading available. It improves the result without changing the sign. The last column is the “both together” case, where today’s service survives: ALTO then adds almost nothing, because travellers only switch when it is genuinely better for them.

    The fare premium matters more than the timetable

    Table 5 · What moves the answer

    Stops a dayNormal faresFares +25%Fares +40%Station 25 min outStation 45 min out
    6−12%−20%−24%−17%−23%
    8−8%−17%−21%−13%−20%
    10−5%−14%−19%−10%−17%

    The last two columns hold the fare premium at 25 per cent and vary the drive from the station to downtown; the central case is 27 minutes. Notice that going from normal fares to a 25 per cent premium costs more than doubling the distance to the station.

    How many trains would it actually take?

    The more useful question is what it would take for an out‑of‑town ALTO station to be no worse for Kingston than the service it already has. At normal fares the answer is nine stops a day for everyone. At a 25 per cent premium, the answer falls apart.

    Table 6 · Daily stops needed just to match today, Toronto trips

    Who is travellingAt normal faresAt a 25% premium
    Public sector and institutional (expensed)913
    Other business and leisure927
    Seniors, leisure, visiting family948
    Students and young adults9no number works

    Forty‑eight stops a day is a train every twenty minutes all day. For students, no frequency at all makes up for a distant station plus a premium ticket, because their time is worth less than the fare increase costs them.

    One case runs the other way and should be said plainly: expensed public‑sector travel between Kingston and Ottawa is better off under ALTO in every scenario tested, because today’s service on that pair is slow and indirect. It is a real gain, and it is a small share of the total.

    Under the friendliest assumptions available — normal fares, a station twenty‑five minutes out, today’s trains kept running alongside, ten stops a day — the best figure the model will produce for an out‑of‑town Kingston station is about +8 per cent. Getting there means giving up the premium pricing the revenue case depends on everywhere else.

    Result Three

    What if you just made today’s trains faster?

    Now reverse the test. Keep the existing station, keep eighteen stops a day, keep normal fares, and change nothing but speed on the existing route.

    Table 7 · Speed alone, from the existing station

    Toronto journey timeTime savedAnnual tripsChange
    135 min, as it runs today450,000
    118 min, reliable 160 to 177 km/h13%471,000+4.6%
    95 min, a 240 km/h conventional railway30%502,000+11.6%
    80 min, upper bound for this station41%525,000+16.6%

    The last row applies high‑speed running time to the existing station. It is there to separate speed from station location, frequency and fare, not as a proposal.

    The comparison that matters

    Eighty minutes to Toronto from the existing station, eighteen stops a day, normal fares: about +17 per cent. The same eighty minutes from a station twenty‑seven minutes out of town, eight stops a day, fares 25 per cent higher: about −17 per cent.

    The time on the train is identical. The two outcomes are thirty‑four points apart, and every one of those points is station location, frequency and fare.

    Speed gives diminishing returns

    Roughly speaking, every 1 per cent cut in journey time buys about 0.4 per cent more trips. A 30 per cent time saving buys about 12 per cent more passengers. For most of Kingston’s travellers, time on the train is a minority of what the trip really costs them — fare, getting to the station and waiting make up the rest, and speed does nothing about any of those. The gain concentrates where an hour is worth most: on a 95‑minute conventional railway, public‑sector travel grows about 17 per cent, business and leisure 13, seniors and leisure 12, students 10.

    A conservative figure, and a warning

    These figures are cautious. The response to journey time implied here is weaker than the rail literature usually finds, because the fare term in the calculation dampens it. Using a more standard figure, the same 30 per cent time saving would give about +22 per cent rather than +12. Table 7 should be read as a floor, with the 95‑minute case plausibly worth anywhere from +10 to +25 per cent. The comparisons earlier in the brief are unaffected, because they compare like with like.

    The warning is that fares erode the gain fast in either direction. Raising tickets 10 per cent to help pay for an upgrade cuts the benefit from about +12 per cent to about +7 — two‑fifths of the speed gain eaten by a 10 per cent fare rise. That is the same mechanism that sinks the high‑speed cases, working here on the alternative. It is an argument for funding an upgrade from capital rather than from the farebox.

    What It Means

    A stop is not the same as service

    Three things set whether Kingston gains or loses, and speed is not one of them: how far the station is from where people are actually going, what the ticket costs, and whether today’s trains survive. Frequency cannot rescue the result on its own. At eighteen stops a day, matching today, an out‑of‑town station at a premium fare still comes out around 9 per cent down.

    A public debate about whether Kingston gets a station, and how many trains stop there, is a debate about the wrong variables.

    The two things ALTO has said do not fit together

    A station justified by strong ridership, but served by a minority of trains, has its timetable set by the express service rather than by the demand used to justify it. Table 6 shows why that is not a workable compromise: the frequency needed to make the station work at a premium fare is far above what an express pattern tolerates. The usual international answer is two tiers, express and semi‑fast, which needs somewhere for fast trains to overtake at the intermediate station. Whether the cost estimate includes that overtaking capacity is a question with two possible answers, and both are informative.

    A conventional railway does better here

    A new conventional railway built for 240 km/h, running typically at 200, serves Kingston without moving the station, without the fare premium high‑speed operation needs, and without cutting the number of trains that stop. It captures a smaller share of the theoretical time saving and a larger share of the ridership. That is the trade the tables above quantify.

    What Would Change the Answer

    Three commitments, and four documents

    None of this is a prediction that a Kingston station must fail. The results turn on assumptions, and those assumptions are all things the project could settle.

    Would help
    A station much closer to the core, or a frequent connection to it that is committed and timed to the trains rather than hoped for.
    Would help most
    Normal fares on Kingston journeys. Table 6 shows this is the single decisive variable. A premium fare is what makes the arithmetic unrecoverable for students, seniors and leisure travellers.
    Would help
    A binding commitment that service on the existing line is maintained, which turns the replacement case into the both‑together case, plus a published timetable, so frequency becomes a fact instead of an assumption.

    Four things that should be published

    Before any of these figures are treated as more than an order of magnitude, four inputs should be replaced with real data:

    Not published
    Station‑level boardings and destinations. This alone would settle both the number of trips today and where they go. A matter for the operator.
    Not published
    The calling pattern assumed for the Toronto–Ottawa segment — how many trains actually stop, and where.
    Not published
    The fare structure for intermediate stations. On the evidence above, this matters more than anything else on the list.
    Not published
    The station location, with the assumed travel time from it to downtown Kingston.

    The first sits with the operator. The other three sit with the project and its joint project office, whose report and business case remain unpublished.

    The finding that matters

    It is not that a Kingston station would fail. It is that the service Kingston already has is the benchmark the project has never been asked to beat — and on the assumptions set out here, it does not beat it.

    How to read the numbers on this page

    Every number here other than the two quoted statements is output from our own model, built on the parameters listed in the full brief. Those parameters are assumptions, not measurements, and the four listed above as needing publication are the ones that move the result. The model is set out so that any parameter can be replaced and the arithmetic re-run: the direction of the findings holds across the ranges tested, the exact magnitudes are indicative.

    Where ALTO has not published something — a timetable, a station location, a fare — we say so rather than inferring it, and we make no claim about why it has not been published.

    Sources
    1.
    CBC News, “Kingston probably getting high-speed rail stop, says Alto CEO,” 22 July 2026 — interview with Martin Imbleau on CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning. He says Kingston will probably receive a station, citing ridership, and that most ALTO trains would pass through without stopping, along with Laval and Trois-Rivières, to preserve express service between the larger cities. cbc.ca
    2.
    City of Kingston, Council Meeting Minutes 2026-06, 17 February 2026, Resolution 2026-73, carried as amended 9–2 — support for a southern route contingent on Highway 401 corridor development and on a stop being added in Kingston, as close to the urban core as possible. Examined in the companion brief Which Trains Stop in Kingston?
    3.
    Elasticity ranges: intercity frequency elasticities of +0.4 to +0.7 and journey-time elasticities of −0.6 to −0.9 are the conventional ranges in the rail demand literature, used here as reference values rather than as findings of this brief. The generalised-cost elasticity of −1.0 central, banded −0.8 to −1.2, is our own choice and is tested across that band throughout.
    4.
    Current journey times are as timetabled by VIA Rail. ALTO journey times are our assumption, since no alignment has been published for the Toronto–Ottawa segment.
    5.
    Queen’s University, 2025–26 Enrolment Report, as at 1 November 2025 — 28,561 full-time students, plus 1,704 part-time undergraduate, 1,389 part-time graduate and 931 online undergraduate, giving 32,585 in total. St. Lawrence College reports about 4,000 full-time equivalents at its Kingston campus. Royal Military College of Canada: 1,209 full-time and 587 part-time undergraduate, 276 full-time and 346 part-time graduate students, giving 2,418 in total. RMC’s part-time and graduate enrolment includes serving officers studying at a distance, so it is counted here on the same all-enrolment basis as Queen’s rather than as a resident population; on full-time enrolment alone the city total is about 38,000, and the ratio is about twenty-nine per hundred either way. macleans.ca queensu.ca (PDF)
    6.
    Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population — City of Kingston (census subdivision) 132,485; Kingston census metropolitan area 172,546, comprising the City of Kingston, South Frontenac, Frontenac Islands and Loyalist Township. statcan.gc.ca
    7.
    Comparators, on the same all-institutions basis where the data allow. Sherbrooke: about 40,000 students across eight institutions in a city of 172,950, roughly twenty-three per hundred residents. Guelph: 29,617 full-time equivalents at the University of Guelph in a city of 143,740, roughly twenty-one per hundred — a figure that excludes the Conestoga College campus and is therefore a floor. ocul.on.ca
    Download Full Brief
    Kingston’s ALTO Ridership Analysis (PDF)
    Full method, all thirty‑two market segments, sensitivity bands and break‑even calculations
    Download PDF
  • Which trains stop in kingston

    Which Trains Stop in Kingston?

    A probable station, an unpublished route, and the conditions Kingston City Council actually set.

    ⚠ New Statement: ALTO CEO on a Kingston Stop

    On 22 July 2026, ALTO chief executive Martin Imbleau told CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning that Kingston will probably receive a station, citing demand — It’s doable, the ridership is very strong — because Kingston is a large community. In the same interview he said that most ALTO trains would pass through Kingston without stopping, along with Laval and Trois-Rivières, in order to preserve express service between the larger cities. CBC News

    No alignment has been published for the segment that would carry the station. ALTO has said the Montréal–Ottawa route goes to public feedback this autumn, with the Toronto–Ottawa segment — the one containing Kingston — to follow.

    Critical Finding

    The two statements cannot both carry the weight assigned to them. If Kingston’s demand justifies building a station, it justifies serving it; if the timetable cannot absorb the stop, something other than the ridership case is driving the decision. But the more consequential question is not whether Kingston receives a platform. It is how many useful trains Kingston has the day the line opens, counting both operators — and on that question the announcement is silent.

    Kingston City Council’s support is not unconditional and never was. Resolution 2026-73, adopted 17 February 2026 by a vote of 9–2, makes support for a southern route contingent upon development along the Highway 401 corridor around the South Frontenac and Kingston region and on a new stop being added in Kingston. It further asks that the route and stop sit as close to the urban core as possible, and resolves that if there is no station in Kingston, council formally opposes the southern route. Of these, the 22 July statement addresses one, provisionally. The 401 contingency and the urban-core request are not addressed at all.

    Meanwhile the service Kingston already has is exposed from the other direction. Transport Canada’s 2025–26 estimates record funding to support the planning and eventual transfer of VIA Rail’s Québec City–Windsor corridor operations to the private partner. More than 80 per cent of VIA Rail’s revenue comes from that corridor. A station served by a minority of ALTO trains, combined with a thinned conventional service on the existing line, can leave Kingston with fewer useful daily trains than it has today.

    The Arithmetic

    What an intermediate stop costs at 300 km/h

    A station call on a high-speed line is expensive in a way that is easy to underestimate. The train must decelerate from line speed, dwell at the platform, and accelerate back to line speed. On comparable systems the round-trip cost of a single intermediate stop is on the order of four to six minutes, before any allowance for the slower alignment geometry often required to reach a city-centre location.

    That penalty falls on every through passenger, on every train that stops. Because the project’s commercial proposition is journey time between the anchor cities, the timetable resolves the conflict in the predictable direction: the stop is retained, and most services are routed past it. This is what the chief executive described on 22 July, and it is a rational operating decision given the design speed.

    What it does not resolve is the capital exposure. The station, its platforms and approach works, and whatever alignment concession is required to bring the corridor within reach of Kingston are paid for in full, irrespective of how many trains call. A station served by a minority of services carries close to the full cost of one served by all of them while delivering a fraction of the utility. The frequency a passenger actually experiences — not the presence of a platform — determines whether a station changes travel behaviour.

    This is not an argument that Kingston should be excluded. It is an argument that a stop and a useful service are different commitments, and that only the first has been signalled.

    The Municipal Record

    What Kingston City Council actually resolved

    9–2
    council vote adopting Resolution 2026-73, as amended
    17 February 2026, meeting 2026-06
    33
    weekly Kingston stops the deferred VIA express pilot would have removed
    September 2025 proposal
    2029
    end of the development phase, after which the federal government decides whether to proceed
    ALTO briefing to council, February 2026

    In March 2025, on a motion from the mayor, Kingston City Council voted unanimously to withdraw its support for ALTO. The stated grievance was the change from VIA Rail’s earlier High Frequency Rail proposal, under which Kingston was to have been a regional hub.

    On 17 February 2026, council reversed that position. Senior ALTO representatives briefed council that evening, immediately before the vote. Eight delegations spoke to the motion — among them Queen’s University, Kingston Health Sciences Centre, the Downtown Kingston Business Improvement Area, Kingston Accommodation Partners and the Corridor Train Alliance; the minutes record none opposed. A motion to defer consideration to the March meeting was lost 3–8. Resolution 2026-73 then carried as amended, 9–2, with Councillors Glenn and McLaren opposed.

    The adopted text is more specific than the public discussion of it has generally been. Its four operative clauses:

    Clause 1 — the request

    Calls on the federal Minister of Transport to enhance ALTO’s mandate to include the addition of a Kingston stop on the proposed ALTO High-Speed Rail Southern Route between Peterborough and Ottawa.

    Clause 2 — the contingency

    Expresses support for a southern route contingent upon development along the Highway 401 corridor around the South Frontenac and Kingston region, and provided there is a new stop added that is in Kingston.

    Clause 3 — the location request

    Requests that the southern route and planned stop be located as close to the urban core of the city as possible.

    Clause 4 — the trigger

    Resolves that if there is no station in Kingston, council formally opposes the creation of the ALTO southern route as one that would bypass Kingston and offer no benefit to the city or Eastern Ontario.

    Clauses 1 and 2 do not describe the same corridor. The first asks the Minister to add a stop to the proposed southern route — the alignment already on the table, which despite its name still passes north of the city, and on which a station would sit roughly 25 to 30 minutes by road from downtown Kingston. The second makes support conditional on a Highway 401 alignment. The 401 contingency entered by amendment (carried 8–3); a second amendment (10–1) softened clause 2’s endorsement of the existing route, and left clause 1 as drafted.

    The word “southern” has caused some confusion locally. It describes a route that is southern relative to the Havelock alignment through Peterborough — not one that approaches the lakeshore or the existing rail corridor through Kingston. The practical question for the city is therefore not downtown versus not-downtown. It is whether a Kingston station would be co-located with the existing VIA Rail station, inside the city and inside the existing network, or built new on the far side of it.

    That is the inconsistency the two dissenting councillors identified on the night. Their objection was that language open to interpretation would be interpreted by others, and that Kingston risked breaking faith with South Frontenac Township — whose own council had days earlier opposed the line through the township and backed a route through Kingston instead.

    “The details do still matter.”Councillor Conny Glenn, on the February motion — reported in The Kingston Whig-Standard, 18 February 2026

    Five months later, ALTO can satisfy clause 1 without satisfying clause 2. A probable stop on the existing proposed southern alignment answers the request while leaving the contingency untouched — and nothing said on 22 July distinguishes between them.

    What Resolution 2026-73 conditions support onWhat the 22 July statement provides
    A new stop in Kingston (clauses 1, 2 and 4). Absent one, council formally opposes the southern route. A station described as probable, three years ahead of the federal decision on whether the project proceeds at all.
    Status Signalled, not committed
    Development along the Highway 401 corridor around the South Frontenac and Kingston region (clause 2) — the express contingency on which support rests. Not addressed. The Toronto–Ottawa segment is third in ALTO’s publication queue and has not been released for feedback.
    Status Not addressed
    Route and stop as close to the urban core as possible (clause 3). Not addressed. On the currently proposed southern alignment, which passes north of the city, a station would sit some 25 to 30 minutes by road from downtown and outside the existing rail network.
    Status Not addressed
    Service levels. Not addressed in the resolution, though its recitals rest on Kingston’s established rail demand and on a stop enabling meaningful shifts from passenger vehicles. Most trains would pass through without stopping. No daily calling frequency has been stated.
    Status Unstated on both sides

    The resolution was circulated to the Prime Minister, the Minister of Transport, ALTO’s chief executive, area MPs and MPPs, the Mayor of South Frontenac, and the Eastern Ontario Mayors’ and Wardens’ Caucuses. Its conditions are on the record with every party who would need to honour them.

    The Other Half of the Equation

    A new station is a gain only if the service Kingston has survives

    Transport Canada’s 2025–26 estimates record funding to VIA Rail to support the planning and eventual transfer of its Québec City–Windsor corridor passenger services to the private partner. That transfer is stated federal intent, not conjecture. More than 80 per cent of VIA Rail’s revenue and more than 90 per cent of its passengers are in that corridor.

    The consequence for Kingston follows directly from ALTO’s own numbers. The project’s ridership forecast depends substantially on diverting existing corridor rail passengers — travellers who, by definition, stop buying VIA tickets. The economics of the Kingston Subdivision would then rest on intermediate-point traffic alone, having lost the end-to-end market that carries them. Either frequencies fall, or subsidy rises, or both. This is an observation about the project’s arithmetic, not an accusation about anyone’s intentions.

    The commercial logic has already been demonstrated once

    In September 2025, VIA Rail announced a pilot running four daily trains non-stop between Montréal and Toronto, bypassing intermediate Eastern Ontario communities. For Kingston it would have removed 33 weekly stops and the first five morning departures, leaving an 11 a.m. first eastbound train and making same-day travel impractical. Kingston, Belleville and Napanee councils passed motions opposing it. It was postponed on operational constraints with CN — not withdrawn — and VIA stated it would continue pursuing direct Montréal–Toronto service.

    The same reasoning, ten months later, from the other operator

    What ALTO’s chief executive described on 22 July is the same commercial logic, applied to the same city, by operators whose corridor business is slated to converge under the transfer. Kingston’s downside case is not speculative. It was tabled ten months ago, quantified, and shelved rather than abandoned.

    The arithmetic Kingston should be doing is net

    A platform served by a minority of ALTO services, combined with a thinned conventional service on the existing line, can leave the city with fewer useful trains than it has today — while being announced as a gain. No party is presently negotiating the second half of that equation, and Resolution 2026-73 does not address it.

    The View From a Supporter of the Project

    A long-standing advocate for high-speed rail reaches the same conclusions

    On 15 July 2026, Transport Action Canada wrote to the Minister of Transport about the Kingston alignment; the letter was published by the organisation’s Ontario division on 22 July — the same day as the chief executive’s remarks. Transport Action Canada describes a decades-long record of advocating for high-speed rail in this corridor and welcomed the federal commitment to build it. Its letter is not an objection to the project. It is a warning about how this station is being contemplated, and its lead condition is that any ALTO stop in Kingston be co-located with the existing VIA Rail station.

    Access time cancels the time saving

    Transport Action Canada’s position is that any Kingston station must be co-located with, and fully integrated into, the existing VIA Rail network. Sited instead on ALTO’s currently proposed southern alignment — which they put at approximately 25 to 30 minutes by road from downtown Kingston — it would, in their assessment, likely fail to generate the anticipated ridership and modal shift, because the time spent reaching the station negates the journey-time advantage the line exists to deliver.

    The net effect on both operators

    The same letter states that such a station would divert passengers from VIA Rail, reducing ridership on existing services and increasing VIA Rail’s operating subsidy requirements — what the organisation calls a lose-lose scenario for both services. This is the net-frequency problem set out above, reached independently by an organisation that wants the project delivered.

    Existing corridors before new right-of-way

    The letter closes on the alignment question directly: of the two existing rights-of-way between Montréal and Toronto, one remains largely suitable for high-speed operation while the other could accommodate redirected freight if track capacity were restored. Every opportunity to use existing corridors, it argues, should be explored before undertaking the cost and disruption of an entirely new right-of-way. The letter also notes that the economic rationale and business case for the selected project — including the long-promised Joint Project Office report — have still not been published.

    Read alongside Resolution 2026-73, the letter sharpens what Kingston should be asking for. Council’s condition was a station; the more exacting question is which station — one that joins the network the city already uses, or one that starts a second, thinner network beside it.

    The Design Question Underneath

    “We cannot stop in all the communities” is a choice, not a constraint

    Asked about a possible stop at Smiths Falls, ALTO’s chief executive said VIA Rail remains an option for smaller communities, and that the project cannot serve every community if it is to remain fast and economical.

    The first half of that answer describes a two-tier corridor whose lower tier has no identified funder, no committed frequency, and no infrastructure pathway. The communities on that lower tier — Oshawa, Cobourg, Port Hope, Trenton Junction, Belleville, Napanee, Kingston, Gananoque, Brockville, Cornwall, Dorval — have, with one exception, no viable airport. For most, conventional rail is the only intercity connection to healthcare, post-secondary institutions and economic centres.

    The second half is presented as a constraint of physics. It is better understood as a consequence of a design choice. The number of communities a corridor can serve is a function of its design speed: the higher the speed, the more costly each stop becomes in schedule terms, and the fewer stops the business case will tolerate. A 300 km/h line is committed to skipping intermediate cities. A 200 km/h line is not.

    That is the case for High Performance Passenger Rail as an alternative approach — a lower design speed permitting intermediate communities to be served on the fast network itself, rather than skipped and then handed back to a legacy service whose future funding no one has described. It produces a slower headline journey time between Toronto and Montréal, and a materially better network for the roughly one million people living between them.

    Implications for autumn 2026

    What could still be settled before the Toronto–Ottawa route is published

    ALTO has stated that the Montréal–Ottawa alignment goes to public feedback this autumn, with the Toronto–Ottawa segment to follow. Kingston’s window to convert a signalled station into a specified one closes when that segment is published, not when it is built. The outstanding items divide into two categories.

    Within ALTO’s authority to answer now

    Whether the 401 contingency is being met Council’s support rests on development along the Highway 401 corridor around the South Frontenac and Kingston region. Confirming whether the segment under study satisfies that condition is a disclosure, not a study.
    Station location, co-location and access time Where the station would sit, whether it would be co-located with and integrated into the existing VIA Rail station, and the door-to-door journey time from downtown Kingston.
    Daily calling pattern at opening How many services call in each direction, and what commitment exists that the pattern survives timetable optimisation after opening.
    Station capital cost and its treatment The cost of the station and its approach works, and how it is carried in the business case.

    Requires a federal decision

    Conventional service after the corridor transfer What service operates on the existing Kingston Subdivision once corridor operations transfer, at what frequency, funded by whom, and under what protection. This sits with Parliament and the Minister, not with ALTO.
    Net frequency guarantee A commitment that a new station is additive to, not substitutive for, existing service — the demand advanced against the September 2025 express pilot, which applies unchanged to the pattern now described for ALTO.
    Whether the project proceeds at all The development phase runs to 2029, after which ALTO reports to the federal government and the decision to continue is taken. Every commitment discussed above is made in advance of that decision.
    Where things stand · July 2026

    Summary ledger

    Measured against the conditions Kingston City Council itself set:

    Signalled
    A new stop in Kingston. Described as probable by ALTO’s chief executive on 22 July 2026. No decision has been confirmed, and the mayor has said as much.
    Not addressed
    The Highway 401 contingency. Council’s support is expressly conditional on development along the 401 corridor around the South Frontenac and Kingston region. Nothing said on 22 July speaks to alignment.
    Not addressed
    Proximity to the urban core, and co-location. Whether a Kingston station would join the existing VIA Rail station and network, or be built new outside the city on an alignment passing north of it, determines its catchment, its access time and its ridership. The statement does not distinguish them.
    Contradicted
    Service frequency. The ridership justification and the express-running plan point in opposite directions. No daily calling pattern has been stated.
    Not addressed
    Conventional service after the corridor transfer. Frequency, funder and protection all unstated, on a line whose revenue base ALTO’s own forecast is designed to divert.
    Not addressed
    Net useful services. Whether Kingston has more usable daily trains after opening than before, counting both operators, is the only measure that answers the question residents are actually asking.
    Deferred
    The project decision itself. The development phase runs to 2029; the federal government decides afterwards whether to proceed.

    None of these questions presumes the project fails. Each asks only that the analysis behind the statement be disclosed — and, in the case of the 401 contingency, that a condition Kingston placed on its own support be answered before the Toronto–Ottawa alignment is fixed. Until then, what has been announced is an intention, not a service.

    Sources

    Primary documents and statements

    1.
    CBC News, “Kingston probably getting high-speed rail stop, says Alto CEO,” 22 July 2026 — interview with Martin Imbleau, CBC Radio Ottawa Morning. cbc.ca
    2.
    City of Kingston, Council Meeting Minutes 2026-06, 17 February 2026 — Resolution Number 2026-73, “Support for Alto High Speed Rail Southern Route, as Amended,” carried as amended 9–2; amendment votes 8–3 and 10–1; deferral motion lost 3–8; ALTO briefing and delegations recorded. cityofkingston.ca
    3.
    Elliot Ferguson, “Kingston city council supports a southern high-speed rail route,” The Kingston Whig-Standard, 18 February 2026 — contemporaneous report of the council debate and the dissenting councillors’ objections. thewhig.com
    4.
    Christena Lawrie, “Council votes to withdraw support for federal high speed rail project,” CFRC / Local Journalism Initiative, 13 March 2025 — unanimous withdrawal of support, and the regional hub commitment under the earlier High Frequency Rail proposal. cfrc.ca
    5.
    Kingstonist, “South Frontenac says no to high-speed rail line through township,” February 2026. kingstonist.com
    6.
    Transport Canada (2025–26). Supplementary Estimates: High-Speed Rail Initiative — funding to VIA Rail supporting the planning and eventual transfer of Québec City–Windsor corridor services to the private partner. tc.canada.ca
    7.
    Transport Action Canada, “VIA Rail launches Montréal–Toronto express trains but cuts service to lakeshore cities,” September 2025. transportaction.ca
    8.
    CBC News, “Via Montreal–Toronto pilot that skipped eastern Ontario postponed,” 29 September 2025. cbc.ca
    9.
    Kingstonist, “Pilot Pains: VIA Rail insists Kingston will remain among ‘best served’ cities in country,” 31 October 2025 — Belleville and Napanee council motions. kingstonist.com
    11.
    Tariq Khan, President, Transport Action Canada — letter to the Honourable Steven MacKinnon, Minister of Transport, “Re: Alto Kingston Alignment,” 15 July 2026. Published by Transport Action Ontario as “General Support for Alto Kingston Alignment, but Concerns Exist,” 22 July 2026. ontario.transportaction.ca   letter (PDF)
  • Bound before briefed

    City of Kingston: Bound Before Briefed

    Britain spent a decade learning what happens when councils sign confidentiality agreements with a high-speed rail promoter. The lessons were on the record. Kingston signed on 10 July, three days before this brief reached councillors.

    ⚠ Update · The agreement has been signed

    This brief sets out the questions Kingston City Council should have asked before entering a non-disclosure agreement with ALTO. By the time it reached councillors, on Monday, July 13, the agreement had already been signed — the Whig-Standard reported that the City signed on Friday, July 10, and the signing became public on July 14. Whig-Standard

    The document’s title turns out to be literal. Councillors were bound on the Friday and briefed on the Monday — bound by an agreement the City says applies to them personally, three days before the questions below were put in front of them. The brief did not arrive too early to matter. It arrived after the decision it was meant to inform.

    Two facts from that reporting change the picture materially. First, a City spokesperson confirmed that the agreement binds city staff and councillors alike — every person who receives technical information from ALTO. Second, asked whether the City had a choice, the same spokesperson said: “This is not optional.”

    The analysis below is the brief as sent to councillors, unchanged. The questions it raises were answerable before Friday. That they are printed here after the signing, rather than asked before it, is the point.

    Critical Finding

    Of the five questions this brief puts to Council, one has already been answered, and answered badly. The agreement binds elected members, not merely officers. A councillor who receives technical information about the corridor cannot discuss it with the constituents whose land that corridor may cross. The remaining four — whether the agreement expires, what precisely it covers, whether MFIPPA and open-meeting obligations are expressly preserved, and what ALTO would actually have withheld without it — remain unanswered on the public record.

    A second finding sits underneath the first. ALTO describes these agreements as instruments that enable two-way data sharing and productive collaboration. HS2 Ltd, facing the same criticism in Britain, said its agreements were mutual and entered into by consent. The City of Kingston says the agreement was not optional. A contract that one party had no choice but to sign is not a collaboration. Both characterisations cannot be true, and it is the City — not the critics — that has contradicted the promoter.

    Kingston’s neighbours faced the identical request and treated it as a decision. Two eastern Ontario counties have now refused ALTO’s confidentiality agreement outright, both unanimously, both on the public record — the United Counties of Prescott and Russell in May, and the United Counties of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry on June 15. Frontenac County voted formally on April 15 to oppose the proposed corridors through the county. Whether Kingston’s agreement was ever put to its own elected representatives — by motion, in open or closed session — has not been established on the public record.

    The most important fact in this brief is the one that follows from that. SDG refused the agreement and then published ALTO’s presentation to the public. The choice Kingston was offered — sign and be informed, or refuse and be ignorant — is not a real choice. A council next door declined to sign and released the material anyway.

    Download
    City of Kingston: Bound Before Briefed — Full Brief (PDF)
    The briefing note circulated to Kingston City Council, reproduced as issued, with a dated note recording that the agreement was signed before it arrived. Ten-minute read.
    Download PDF
    What was signed

    “This is not optional”

    The agreement was executed on Friday, July 10, between the City of Kingston and ALTO, the Crown corporation developing the corridor. ALTO’s account of why is straightforward and, in its own terms, reasonable: planning work is not final; early concepts, technical analysis and emerging ideas are still being refined; and sharing preliminary material without its full context could give the impression that decisions have already been made. Confidentiality agreements, the corporation says, are used widely in the infrastructure industry and structure these discussions so that evolving information can be shared. Whig-Standard

    The Mayor’s defence follows the same line. Such agreements are common in major infrastructure planning; they allow technical information to be shared so that municipalities can provide informed input; the agreement is not an endorsement of any particular route or station location; and the City remains committed to transparency and will share information publicly when it is able to.

    Set against that framing, the City spokesperson’s own words do a great deal of work. The agreement applies to all city staff and councillors who receive technical information from ALTO. It was required in order for the City to receive any technical information at all. And it was not optional.

    A confidentiality agreement that one party had no choice but to sign is not a collaboration. It is a condition of entry.

    This is the distinction the British record turns on, and it is worth being precise about it. The objection is not that confidential material was shared confidentially. It is that information was withheld until silence was promised — that access to the facts was made conditional on a commitment not to use them. That is not a description of HS2. It is now, on the City’s own account, a description of Kingston.

    Part One · The mechanism

    Access conditioned on silence

    In Britain, councils were not handed material and then asked to protect the commercially sensitive parts of it. They were told they could see nothing at all unless they signed first. Many were required to sign before they could engage with HS2 Ltd on the questions that mattered most locally — where stations might go, how they would be designed, and which route the promoter preferred. Warwickshire County Council could not receive early design updates until it had signed. New Civil Engineer Warwickshire World

    A council’s capacity to scrutinise the promoter is made conditional on a promise not to tell the people it represents what that scrutiny has revealed.

    The council does not become better informed in any way it can act upon. It becomes better informed and simultaneously disabled from using the information in the one forum where a council is supposed to act: in public, on the record, in front of the residents whose homes and farms lie in the corridor.

    That is the general case. In Kingston it now has a specific and uncomfortable form. Because the agreement binds councillors rather than officers alone, a member of Council who is briefed on the alignment cannot discuss what they have learned with the constituent whose property it crosses. The representative becomes an insider. Whatever else the agreement achieves, it removes from thirteen elected people the ability to do the thing they were elected to do.

    Part Two · The scale, and the creep

    Four agreements became three hundred and thirty-nine

    Freedom of Information disclosures eventually forced HS2 Ltd to reveal how far the practice had spread. The progression was four agreements in 2012–13, ten in 2014, twenty-seven in 2015, thirty-four in 2016, seventy-one in 2017, and one hundred and twelve in 2018. New Civil Engineer

    4
    confidentiality agreements signed in 2012–13, at the outset
    HS2 Ltd, via FOI
    112
    signed in 2018 alone, as the practice took hold
    HS2 Ltd, via FOI
    339
    bodies bound, by the figure cited in the House of Lords
    Hansard

    HS2 Ltd then resisted disclosing who had signed for eighteen months, releasing the list of 253 organisations only after the Information Commissioner intervened. A further thirty-eight agreements with individuals were never named. By the end, the signatories included dozens of councils, the Health and Safety Executive, the National Trust, Historic England, and five universities.

    The circle of people who could speak freely about a public project — funded by the public, running through the public’s communities — had been drawn so tightly that supporters of the scheme in the House of Lords questioned why so many organisations needed to be bound at all.

    The creep has already begun here

    Reporting on the Prescott and Russell decision confirms that ALTO requires every landholder who permits field survey access to sign a non-disclosure agreement, not only municipalities. The first agreement is never the last. It establishes the template, the precedent, and the expectation — for this municipality, for the next one down the corridor, for landowners, consultants and agencies, and for every subsequent phase of the project. Tribune-Express

    Part Three · The terms

    Twenty-six of twenty-eight had no end date

    Of the twenty-eight English local authorities identified, the Town and Country Planning Association found that twenty-six had agreements with no end date. New Civil Engineer

    No sunset clause. No automatic release on publication of the environmental assessment. No expiry when the route was confirmed and the commercial sensitivity had evaporated. Silence in perpetuity, over material that in most cases became public anyway — simply later, and on the promoter’s timetable rather than the community’s.

    This is the single most consequential drafting failure in the entire British record, and it is also the easiest to prevent. An officer negotiating in good faith, focused on getting the data flowing, will not necessarily notice that the agreement never expires. Whether Kingston’s agreement contains an expiry date is not, at the time of writing, on the public record. It is a one-word answer, and the City can give it today.

    Part Four · Both sides, fairly stated

    The promoter’s case, and what the record shows

    Nothing in this brief argues that no confidentiality is ever warranted. The argument is narrower: the terms matter enormously, the English terms were bad, and they were bad in ways that were entirely avoidable if identified in advance.

    What the promoter saysWhat the British record shows
    The agreements are mutual and entered into by consent. ALTO describes instruments that enable two-way data sharing and support productive collaboration on planning. The City of Kingston’s own spokesperson says the agreement was not optional and was required to receive any technical information at all. HS2 Ltd made the identical “mutual and consensual” claim about agreements that councils could not decline without being cut off.
    Confidentiality protects residents from unnecessary blight and confusion. Sharing early information without full context could suggest decisions have been made. Note the shape of the argument: the secrecy is offered as a protection for the affected. It is worth asking whether residents in the corridor, given the choice, would prefer to be protected from knowing. In Britain, the discovery of the agreements produced anger, not relief.
    These agreements are common in major infrastructure. They allow municipalities to give informed input. They are common. That is the finding, not the defence. The Raynsford Review examined precisely this common practice and concluded that it corroded public trust in the project it was meant to protect.
    The agreement is not an endorsement of any route or station. The City will share information publicly when it is able to. “When we are able to” is the operative phrase, and its meaning is set by a document the public has not seen. If the agreement has no expiry, the answer is: at the promoter’s discretion, indefinitely.

    The most honest defence of signing came, in Britain, from Doncaster. The council signed because it relied on HS2’s data to scrutinise and challenge the design; without signing, exposing the route’s damaging effects would have been harder still and might have produced more blight rather than less. Doncaster Free Press That is not a foolish argument, and it should not be caricatured. It is the argument of a body that has accepted the promoter’s framing of the available choices — sign and be informed, or refuse and be ignorant. Whether that framing was tested is not something the public record shows.

    Prescott and Russell tested it. So did Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry. Both refused — and neither is, on the available evidence, less informed about ALTO than Kingston is. One of them has published the promoter’s presentation. Kingston cannot.

    Part Five · The independent verdicts

    What Britain concluded, in public, before Kingston signed

    The Raynsford Review (Town and Country Planning Association, 2018)

    Led by a former construction minister, this review of the English planning system found that the agreements undermine public trust in major infrastructure. It criticised the widespread use of confidentiality agreements by the HS2 company and identified a corrosive public sense that planning no longer protects people’s interests. It found that the agreements created real anger among local politicians and deeper resentment in affected communities once their existence came to light.

    Raynsford’s line — the most useful distinction in the literature

    Raynsford did not oppose confidentiality as such. He accepted the case for it where competing route options are under assessment and public knowledge could inflate land prices — and opposed it where it undermines public trust or may shield inappropriate relationships between developers and those making decisions. The test is not whether confidentiality is ever justified. It is whether this confidentiality, on these terms, for this long, is.

    The House of Lords — criticism from the project’s own supporters

    Baroness Kramer, a consistent advocate of HS2, argued that the presumption must always be transparency, with confidentiality as the exception, and that the slow release of information on cost, land and compensation had harmed the project and generated suspicion. Lord Berkeley proposed an independent assessor to review every HS2 confidentiality agreement against a presumption of public accountability. The people who most wanted HS2 built were among the loudest voices warning that the secrecy was destroying its public licence.

    The culture did not stay in its lane

    HS2 Ltd paid roughly £1.67 million in settlement agreements to forty-eight former employees from April 2016, with confidentiality clauses written in; a number of whistleblowers were among them. The company also redacted the names of attendees from its board minutes, against the Information Commissioner’s stated presumption in favour of naming those acting in a professional capacity. In the English record, confidentiality practice did not stay confined to route data. New Civil Engineer

    Part Six · The neighbours

    The same request, refused twice next door

    ALTO has made materially the same approach to municipalities across the corridor: access to technical material, in exchange for a confidentiality agreement, plus permission to enter municipal land for field survey. What distinguishes Kingston is not the request. It is the response, and the process by which the response was reached.

    United Counties of Prescott and Russell — refused, May 2026

    All eight mayors on the UCPR council voted against a resolution that would have granted ALTO access to counties’ land for survey work and committed the Counties to a non-disclosure agreement. Each mayor declared their position on a registered vote. Warden Mario Zanth, mayor of Clarence-Rockland, directed the CAO to inform ALTO that the council did not want the corporation on its territory, having refused both the confidentiality agreement and land access. Zanth’s stated objection was that the corporation demanded secrecy before it would disclose the technical details municipalities were asking about — the chemistry of de-icing fluids and the risk to wells, the electricity supply, and other questions of direct local consequence. Tribune-Express ONFR

    United Counties of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry — refused, June 15, 2026

    SDG Counties Council unanimously rejected both ALTO’s request to access counties-owned land for environmental and technical study and its request that SDG sign a non-disclosure agreement — an agreement that would have prohibited councillors and staff from discussing with the public any details of their meetings and communications with the corporation. Council was given three options: full access, partial access, or none. It chose none, without further debate. North Glengarry Mayor Jamie MacDonald grounded his objection in accountability, saying of the agreement: “Here they’re telling us we can’t share any information in them.” The Review

    Frontenac County — a formal, public vote on the corridor, April 15, 2026

    Frontenac County Council formally voted to oppose the proposed high-speed rail corridors through the county, favouring routes along existing rail lines or the Highway 401 corridor. The resolution cited disruption to residential areas, agricultural lands and environmentally sensitive features; impacts on municipal infrastructure including road closures; risks to emergency response times; and uncertainty about the long-term financial implications for municipalities. Council supported a Kingston stop and called for no expropriation west of Ottawa until the Ottawa–Montreal segment nears completion. County of Frontenac

    City of Kingston — signed July 10; the authorising process is not on the public record

    Whether the agreement was authorised by a motion of Council — in open session, or in closed session with a reporting-out resolution — or executed by staff under delegated signing authority without coming to Council at all, has not been established. The distinction is not academic. An agreement authorised by a recorded vote is a decision residents can argue with. One signed under delegated authority means the City bound itself, and its councillors, on a matter of plain public interest without the body accountable for that interest ever recording a view.

    The choice Kingston was offered is not a real choice

    The case for signing rests entirely on a premise: that a council which refuses the agreement is left in the dark. The City spokesperson put it plainly — the agreement was required in order to receive any technical information at all, and it was not optional.

    That premise has been tested next door, and it failed. SDG refused the agreement, refused land access, and then shared ALTO’s presentation with the public. From that published material, residents of SDG can now learn what ALTO intends: that field sampling across the corridor is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026 and will feed the impact assessment; that the surveys cover wetlands, forests, avian wildlife, and fish and wildlife habitat; that archaeology, cultural heritage, and “sensitive receptors” such as parks, schools and hospitals are treated as socio-economic components; and that noise, vibration, hydrogeology, soil quality and surface water are the physical components under examination. The Review

    A council that refused to sign has told its residents more about ALTO’s plans than a council that signed is now permitted to.

    This is not a rhetorical point. It is the whole argument, and it can be verified by anyone with a browser. The bargain Kingston accepted — silence in exchange for information — was offered on the premise that there was no alternative. Two neighbouring counties declined it, and one of them proceeded to put the promoter’s own material on the public record. The alternative existed. Kingston did not take it, and has not explained why.

    One further detail of timing deserves an answer. The Eastern Ontario Wardens’ Caucus — the body through which these counties have been coordinating their response — was scheduled to discuss ALTO at a meeting in Kingston, in July. Kingston signed on July 10.

    The Initiative has written to Kingston city councillors asking a single question, answerable in one sentence: was the agreement authorised by resolution of Council, and if so, what is the resolution number and date — or was it executed under delegated authority, and under which by-law? We will publish the answer when we receive it, whatever it is.

    Part Seven · Where things stand

    Five questions, one answered

    These are the five questions the brief puts to Council. None is hostile. Each was answerable by staff in a sentence — before Friday. This is their status as of publication.

    Answered
    Who is bound — officers, or members? Both. The City confirms the agreement applies to all staff and councillors who receive technical information. This is the outcome the brief identifies as the most serious: an agreement that binds elected members converts representatives into insiders.
    Unanswered
    Does it expire? No sunset date has been disclosed. Twenty-six of the twenty-eight English councils signed agreements with no end date at all.
    Unanswered
    What, exactly, is covered? Whether the agreement is confined to genuinely commercial and personal information, or reaches route alignment, station siting, cost and community impact, has not been disclosed.
    Unanswered
    Are the statutory carve-outs express? Whether the agreement expressly preserves the City’s obligations under MFIPPA and the open-meeting provisions of the Municipal Act has not been disclosed. A municipality cannot lawfully contract out of those duties — but a poorly drafted agreement can create a chilling effect that operates as though it had.
    Unanswered
    What was actually being withheld without it? ALTO is a federal entity subject to the Access to Information Act. If the material behind the agreement is disclosable in due course regardless, the agreement is not buying confidentiality. It is buying delay.
    Outstanding
    How many of these has ALTO already signed? With municipalities, agencies, consultants and landowners — and on what terms? In Britain, that number was the story. It went from four to more than three hundred while nobody was counting.
    Every question above can be answered without disclosing a single confidential fact. The terms of an agreement are not the contents of an agreement.

    This is the point on which the whole matter turns, and it is worth stating without heat. Publishing the agreement — its duration, its scope, whom it binds, what it carves out — discloses nothing ALTO has a legitimate interest in protecting. It reveals no alignment, no cost, no property. A city genuinely committed to transparency, and unable to say more about the substance, can nonetheless say everything about the instrument. That it has not yet done so is a choice, and it is a choice the City can reverse this week.

    Download Full Brief
    City of Kingston: Bound Before Briefed (PDF)
    The briefing note as circulated to Kingston City Council — the full British record, the Ontario statutory overlay and the five questions in their original form, prefaced by a dated note on the 10 July signing
    Download PDF
    The English record

    The confidentiality did not protect HS2

    Refusal was never the only alternative to signature, and this brief did not urge it. An agreement that would survive scrutiny is time-limited — expiring on a defined public milestone; scope-limited — confined to genuinely commercial and personal information, with alignment, cost and impact data expressly excluded; statute-preserving — with explicit carve-outs for MFIPPA and open-meeting duties; officer-bound, not member-bound; and publicly disclosed — the agreement itself, if not its contents, placed on the public record.

    Every one of those five terms exists because HS2 lacked it. None of them costs the promoter anything to which it is entitled. Four of the five can still be secured by amendment, and the fifth — publication of the instrument — requires nothing from ALTO at all.

    The English record offers one final observation, and it is not a partisan one. The confidentiality did not protect the project. It corroded HS2’s public licence, hardened the opposition, and left even the scheme’s allies defending a company against the impression that it had something to conceal. Kingston has signed. It has not yet explained. Those are different things, and only one of them is now beyond recall.

    How to read this brief

    Every figure and finding about HS2 is quoted from the sources listed below and can be checked there: the yearly counts of confidentiality agreements, the 253 organisations named after the Information Commissioner intervened, the 26 of 28 English councils with no end date, the settlement figures, and the Raynsford Review and House of Lords findings. The Kingston facts — the 10 July signing, that the agreement binds councillors as well as staff, and the City’s statement that it was not optional — are as reported by the Whig-Standard.

    The statutory points about MFIPPA, the Municipal Act and the Access to Information Act are research, not legal advice, and are offered as questions for the City Solicitor rather than as conclusions. Where something has not been published or answered, this brief says so rather than inferring it, and makes no claim about anyone’s motives in signing.

    Sources

    Primary documents and reporting

    1.
    Elliot Ferguson, “Kingston signs non-disclosure agreement for high-speed rail talks,” The Kingston Whig-Standard, July 14, 2026. thewhig.com
    2.
    “UCPR denies ALTO access to lands, rejects request for NDA,” Tribune-Express, reporting the United Counties of Prescott and Russell council session of May 27, 2026. tribune-express.ca
    3.
    “TGV : Prescott-Russell bloque Alto et refuse de signer une entente de confidentialité,” ONFR / TFO, May 2026 — carries Warden Mario Zanth’s directive to the CAO and his stated reasons. onfr.tfo.org
    4.
    James Morgan, “SDG Council rejects Alto request for land access and NDA,” The Review, June 23, 2026 — reporting the unanimous SDG Counties Council decision of June 15, the terms of the proposed agreement, and the public release of ALTO’s presentation. thereview.ca
    5.
    County of Frontenac, “Council votes to oppose Alto routes through Frontenac County,” April 15, 2026. frontenaccounty.ca
    6.
    “Exclusive: HS2 ramps up use of gagging orders,” New Civil Engineer, July 1, 2019 — the year-by-year progression of agreements and the TCPA finding that 26 of 28 local authority agreements had no end date. newcivilengineer.com
    7.
    “Revealed: the 253 companies and public bodies to sign HS2 gagging orders,” New Civil Engineer, November 16, 2020 — the signatory list released after the Information Commissioner’s intervention. newcivilengineer.com
    8.
    “Exclusive: HS2 paid £1.67m to silence ex-employees,” New Civil Engineer, October 14, 2019. newcivilengineer.com
    9.
    Nick Raynsford, Planning 2020: Final Report of the Raynsford Review of Planning in England, Town and Country Planning Association, November 2018. Reported context on the HS2 confidentiality agreements: Warwickshire World
    10.
    Christian Wolmar, “HS2 likes to keep things secret,” December 2020 — carries the Raynsford distinction between legitimate and illegitimate confidentiality, and the board-minute redactions. christianwolmar.co.uk
    11.
    House of Lords debate on HS2 confidentiality agreements — contributions of Baroness Kramer and Lord Berkeley, Hansard. Hansard record
    12.
    “Doncaster Council signed non-disclosure agreement with HS2 bosses,” Doncaster Free Press — the fullest published statement of a council’s reasons for signing. doncasterfreepress.co.uk
    13.
    Municipal Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. M.56; Municipal Act, 2001, S.O. 2001, c. 25, s. 239 (open meetings); Access to Information Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. A-1. Statutory points in this brief are offered as questions for the City Solicitor, not as legal conclusions.
  • The Stations that aren’t there

    The Stations That Aren’t There

    The tourism ALTO’s line leaves at the station — and the small-town visitor economy an integrated network could reach instead.

    ⚠ A short list of city stops

    ALTO’s mandate fixes seven stations — Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Laval, Montréal, Trois-Rivières, and Québec City — only five of them between the endpoints, and every one a city rather than a recreational town. To hold 300+ km/h, the dedicated new alignment stops as little as possible: the original eastern-Ontario option ran a straight line with no stop between Peterborough and Ottawa. Alto FAQ

    After consultation, the government signalled in June 2026 a strong preference for a more southerly route nearer Highway 401 with a potential Kingston stop, keeping the northern corridor alive but deprioritised; the final alignment is still being assessed. Either way the pattern holds — a handful of city stops, and access by car: ALTO’s own pitch is that most residents east of Peterborough would be within a 25-minute drive of a station. The small towns and shorelines that draw the corridor’s leisure travel sit off the line. CBC

    Critical Finding

    ALTO frames tourism as a metro-connectivity product: faster links between big cities. But the corridor’s large, capturable, and better-distributed tourism opportunity is the opposite trip — domestic leisure travel from the four metros out to smaller towns and recreational areas. That market is already huge, overwhelmingly intra-provincial, mostly same-day, and almost entirely car-dependent.

    This is not small towns instead of big cities. A faster, more reliable High Performance trunk improves the metro trip too — most of the way, since the large gain is over today’s freight-delayed VIA service, not over ALTO. An integrated network reaches the metro market and the small-town market; ALTO’s express spine reaches the first, marginally faster, and by geometry bypasses the second — and can draw activity toward its hub stations rather than distributing it.

    On transparent, adjustable assumptions (a fifteen-minute station catchment, scenario ranges for capture and induced demand), an integrated network could plausibly generate an illustrative band of roughly $30 million to $640 million a year in net-new, locally-retained small-town tourism spending. These are scenario figures, not a forecast; the point is that the benefit is real, net-new rather than displaced, and lands in the communities the express line skips.

    The Market

    A large market, already on the road

    1 in 3
    domestic trips is for holidays, leisure or recreation — the market ALTO’s frame overlooks
    StatCan National Travel Survey
    ~14%
    of domestic travel spending goes to gas and vehicle operation — the leisure market is car-locked
    StatCan National Travel Survey
    ~$200M
    illustrative central net-new small-town tourism per year an integrated network could capture (band ~$30M to ~$640M)
    Initiative scenario

    The domestic leisure market the corridor sits inside is very large. About one in three domestic trips by Canadians is for holidays, leisure or recreation — on the order of ninety-five million such trips nationally in a normal pre-pandemic year — and travel within Canada has since climbed to new highs, with tens of billions of dollars spent each quarter.

    In Ontario, domestic travellers made roughly 116 million visits in a recent full year, over 93 per cent of them Ontarians travelling within their own province; Quebec is the second most-visited province. Most of this travel is same-day — in Ontario about two-thirds — and a same-day trip already means a journey of at least forty kilometres each way.

    And it is car travel. Gas and vehicle operation is consistently one of the three largest categories of domestic travel spending, at around 14 per cent — a direct measure of how car-locked leisure travel to non-metro destinations currently is. Per-visit spending is modest (same-day visits average roughly $70 in Ontario and $75 in Quebec) but the volume is the story.

    This is the demand pool. It is intra-provincial, high-frequency, price-sensitive, and today almost entirely dependent on the private car — which is precisely the market a convenient, well-priced, integrated rail network could convert, and precisely the market a metro-to-metro express line does not address.

    The Geography

    Where the leisure map meets the line

    The test the Initiative applied is simple: which of the corridor’s recreational regions fall within a fifteen-minute reach of a station ALTO is mandated to build? On that test, most do not.

    Recreational regionRelationship to the ALTO line
    Prince Edward County (ON)No station. The nearest existing rail town, Belleville, is bypassed by the northern alignment. Unserved.
    Thousand Islands / Gananoque (ON)Hinges on the Kingston stop, under assessment since June 2026 on the preferred southern route. If confirmed, Kingston would interconnect the existing VIA station and serve as a genuine gateway — though access stays a drive-to-station model. Conditional.
    Northumberland shore — Cobourg, Port Hope (ON)The line routes inland via Peterborough, away from the lakeshore towns and their existing rail. Unserved.
    Kawarthas (ON)Peterborough is a mandated stop and a genuine gateway. Served.
    Rideau corridor — Perth, Westport, Smiths Falls (ON)Off the alignment; no station. Unserved.
    Eastern Townships / Cantons-de-l’Est (QC)South of Montréal, off the Québec-bound line. Unserved.
    Mauricie (QC)Trois-Rivières is a mandated stop and a gateway. Served.
    Charlevoix (QC)Northeast of Québec City, far beyond the line’s end. Unserved.
    Laurentians / Mont-Tremblant (QC)North of Laval; the resort areas lie well beyond any mandated station. Unserved.

    Three of the stops are real recreational gateways, and this brief counts them as such: Peterborough for the Kawarthas, Trois-Rivières for the Mauricie, and — if confirmed — Kingston for the Thousand Islands. But even among these, ALTO’s own materials place Peterborough and Trois-Rivières at the city’s edge, near highways rather than in the centre; only a Kingston stop, reusing the existing VIA station, would set a visitor down in the town itself. The pattern is nonetheless clear: the station set is a list of cities, and whether the eastern-Ontario segment runs north or on the preferred southern line, it stops at cities and passes the belt of small towns and shorelines where corridor residents actually spend their leisure time.

    The Mechanism

    An express spine concentrates; it does not distribute

    Two features of a 300+ km/h line work against dispersed tourism. The first is stop spacing. High speed is only worth building if the train rarely stops; every added station erodes the time saving that justifies the cost. A line optimised for Toronto–Montréal in about three hours cannot also be a network of small-town halts — the two objectives are in direct tension, and the metros win.

    The second is the straw effect (sometimes the tunnel effect), one of the better-documented findings in high-speed-rail economics: fast, few-stop lines tend to concentrate activity in their terminal cities and can draw it out of the places they pass. For tourism specifically, a traveller moved from metro to metro in three hours has no reason to stop in between, and the towns without a platform capture nothing. The honest reading is therefore not that ALTO is merely unhelpful to small-town tourism, but that its geometry can be actively adverse to it.

    An integrated High Performance network works the other way. A trunk at 180–240 km/h on existing corridors, with regional feeders and timed local connections, trades a little top speed for many more points of access — and it is the access, not the speed, that unlocks the leisure trip.

    Couldn’t ALTO just add the last-mile links?

    It could, and it says it will: ALTO has publicly stated it wants the network interconnected with the REM and metro in Montréal and Laval, the LRT and VIA in Ottawa, and the same in Kingston. Municipal and regional-transit integration is a policy choice open to any operator, not a property of one technology. But last-mile links work on top of stations — they amplify access at stops that exist; they cannot create a stop where the line does not run. And ALTO’s own access model is drive-to-station: its selling point for the Kingston option is that most residents east of Peterborough would be within a 25-minute drive of a platform — car-dependent access, the opposite of the car-free leisure trip. The binding constraint is the number and placement of stops, and no shuttle programme changes it.

    The comparison is both-and, not either-or

    High Performance Rail does not trade the metro trip away to reach the small towns; it improves both. A more frequent, more reliable trunk on dedicated track would substantially boost metro-to-metro leisure travel over today’s freight-delayed VIA service — and most of that gain comes from leaving freight-priority track, not from the final increment of speed. The Initiative’s own analysis finds ALTO’s extra 17 to 25 minutes per city pair is a small addition to a benefit High Performance Rail has already largely captured. So an integrated network reaches the metro market and the small-town market; ALTO reaches the first, marginally faster, and forecloses the second.

    Even where ALTO stops, the platform tends to sit outside the centre

    The design privileges speed over central access, and the station choices show it. The one true downtown terminal, Montréal, depends on a tunnel of more than ten kilometres under the Rivière des Prairies and Mount Royal — costed by a McGill analysis at over a billion dollars a kilometre, some 12 to 18 per cent of the whole $60–90 billion budget. As the single most expensive discrete element on the line, with a suburban Laval station already built into the first phase, it is the obvious thing to defer or drop if costs run over — as, on megaproject form, they will. The others already point the same way: by ALTO’s own CEO, Toronto’s first station will be suburban, opening ahead of any downtown stop; the Transport Minister has set aside the historic downtown Ottawa station on cost and geology grounds; Québec City’s central Gare du Palais is largely ruled out as too slow; and Peterborough, Trois-Rivières and Laval are sited near highways and open land to hold the 300 km/h line. Should the Montréal tunnel go the way of the others, not one of the four major anchors would be left with a secure downtown station. Where the design builds fresh for speed, the platform lands outside town and the visitor arrives by car — the opposite of the car-free leisure trip. The one honest exception is reuse: at Ottawa’s Tremblay hub and a possible Kingston on the VIA line, ALTO leans on an existing transit-connected station and access works — which is exactly the High Performance model of keeping the platform where the town already is.

    The Estimate

    A transparent scenario, not a forecast

    The following is deliberately built as visible arithmetic. Every input is a parameter the reader can change; the three columns are a low, central, and high scenario rather than a single prediction. The catchment is set at the fifteen-minute reach used for the geography test above.

    Parameter (annual, at maturity)LowCentralHigh
    Addressable leisure-trip pool — metro origin, destination within 15 min of a networked station3.0M6.0M9.0M
    × Rail capture of addressable car trips10%20%30%
    = Shifted rail trips0.30M1.20M2.70M
    × Induced-demand uplift+10%+25%+40%
    = Rail leisure trips at maturity0.33M1.50M3.78M
    × Net local spend per trip (blended same-day / overnight)$90$130$170
    = Annual net-new local tourism spend~$30M~$195M~$640M

    Illustrative scenario arithmetic. Each parameter is an input, not an observation; the central column is one plausible path through the band, not a point forecast. Pool figures represent a single-digit-millions slice of the corridor’s tens of millions of annual leisure trips.

    Read as a band, an integrated network plausibly captures somewhere between a few tens of millions and roughly $640 million a year in net-new, locally-retained small-town tourism spending, with a central illustrative figure near $200 million. The width of that band is the honest expression of the uncertainty; narrowing it is a modelling exercise, not a rhetorical one. What matters for the comparison with ALTO is not that the high scenario approaches ALTO’s $800 million claim, but that these are net-new and locally-retained dollars — not the gross, un-netted, metro-concentrated figure ALTO reports — and that they land in the communities the express line bypasses.

    The Reference Class

    Integration is the unlock — the Swiss test

    The case that rail can distribute tourism to small towns is not hypothetical; it is the everyday reality of the most integrated networks. Switzerland is the standing proof of concept: timed-transfer scheduling, a single ticketing system, and regional and postbus connections that reach valley and lakeside towns make car-free leisure travel the default rather than the exception, and tourism spending is spread across small communities precisely because the network reaches and connects them. The United Kingdom’s community-rail partnerships show the same mechanism at modest scale, turning secondary lines into local visitor economies.

    The reference class also carries its warning, which this brief states plainly: where fast lines are built without that integration, the straw effect can leave intermediate places worse off, as parts of the Japanese experience show. The lesson is consistent in both directions. It is integration — ticketing, timed connections, and last-mile links — not raw speed, that determines whether rail distributes tourism or concentrates it. That is a choice about network design, and it is the choice an express spine makes in one direction and an integrated High Performance network makes in the other.

    The Condition

    The benefit is conditional, and the brief says so

    This estimate carries a load-bearing assumption, and honesty requires naming it. The entire small-town dividend depends on the last mile actually existing: a train to a rural station accomplishes little if the visitor still needs a car on arrival. The captured trips in the scenario above are conditional on shuttles, regional transit, bike and e-bike hire, and timed connections being built and funded alongside the line. Where that integration is absent, capture rates collapse toward the low column. This condition is not unique to the alternative — ALTO’s own city stations need last-mile links too, and it is pursuing them; the difference is reach, since integration can only amplify the stops a network has, and an integrated network simply has more of them, closer to the destinations.

    Three further limits keep the estimate disciplined. Some premier recreational areas — dispersed cottage country, backcountry, and lakes reached only by private road — are intrinsically car-shaped and fall outside the addressable set at any catchment. Leisure demand is sharply peaked by season and weekend, which is capacity-inefficient and weakens the operating economics rather than strengthening them. And the induced-demand component is the softest parameter in the model; over-reading it would repeat exactly the optimism bias the Initiative documents in ALTO’s own forecasts. The scenario is built to resist that temptation, which is why the low column is deliberately austere.

    Where things stand · July 2026

    Summary ledger

    On the tourism question, measured against ALTO’s own framing:

    Overlooked
    Market — one in three domestic trips is leisure, and the corridor’s small-town leisure economy is large and car-locked. ALTO’s frame addresses metro-to-metro travel, not this market.
    Bypassed
    Geography — most recreational regions fall outside a fifteen-minute reach of any ALTO station; whether the line runs north or on the preferred southern route, it stops only at cities. Peterborough, Trois-Rivières, and (if confirmed) Kingston are the exceptions.
    Adverse
    Mechanism — an express spine concentrates activity in hub cities and can draw it out of bypassed towns (the straw effect), rather than distributing it.
    Available
    Alternative — an integrated High Performance network reaches the metro market (most of ALTO’s benefit, over VIA) and the small-town market: an illustrative central ~$200M a year in net-new local spend, band ~$30M to ~$640M.
    Conditional
    Condition — the dividend is contingent on last-mile integration being built and funded; absent it, capture falls to the low scenario.

    ALTO reports an $800 million annual tourism benefit as a gross figure, concentrated in the metros its line connects. This brief does not dispute that rail generates tourism value between the metros — High Performance Rail delivers most of that too, over today’s VIA service, and at a fraction of the cost. It adds the value ALTO leaves out: the leisure trip out of the city to the small town. One approach captures both markets; the other captures the first, marginally faster, and skips the second. The difference is a network built to stop, not a spine built to skip.

    Download Full Brief
    The Stations That Aren’t There (PDF)
    Small-town tourism and the express spine — the full brief with sources.
    Download PDF
    Sources

    Documents and data

    1.
    ALTO, Frequently Asked Questions and About Alto — the seven federally mandated stations (Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Laval, Montréal, Trois-Rivières, Québec City). altotrain.ca
    2.
    CBC News, coverage of the ALTO route, schedule and land-access surveys, March 2026 — station list, Ottawa–Montréal first phase, and concerns from communities on existing rail routes. cbc.ca
    3.
    The Canadian Press, “Toronto area could get two high-speed rail stations,” April 30, 2026 — seven mandated stops, a possible eighth in the Toronto suburbs, and the 72-trains-per-day service concept.
    4.
    CBC News and Ottawa Business Journal, June 22–23, 2026 — the government’s stated preference for a southern route with a potential Kingston stop interconnecting VIA, the “25-minute drive” catchment claim, and ALTO’s stated intent to connect with the REM, metro, LRT and VIA. cbc.ca obj.ca
    5.
    Station-siting reporting, 2026: ALTO network map (Peterborough near major roadways with bus connections; a northern approach studied at Trois-Rivières owing to downtown density; a Mount Royal tunnel to reach downtown Montréal). altotrain.ca The Canadian Press and The Globe and Mail on Toronto’s suburban-first station opening ahead of a downtown stop; The Globe and Mail and CBC on the Transport Minister setting aside the historic downtown Ottawa station in favour of the existing Tremblay VIA/O-Train hub; and Imbleau largely ruling out Québec City’s Gare du Palais. theglobeandmail.com cbc.ca On the downtown Montréal tunnel — more than ten kilometres, costed by a McGill analysis via The Canadian Press at over CA$1 billion per kilometre, or 12 to 18 per cent of the project budget: trains.com
    6.
    Statistics Canada, National Travel Survey — domestic leisure-trip volumes, same-day share, mode, and expenditure categories (including gas and vehicle operation). Tables 24-10-0070-01 and 24-10-0071-01. statcan.gc.ca
    7.
    Statistics Canada, The Daily, National Travel Survey and Visitor Travel Survey, 2025 quarters — recent domestic tourism spending and per-visit averages for Ontario and Quebec. statcan.gc.ca
    8.
    Reference class (qualitative): the Swiss integrated rail and travel system (timed transfers, single ticketing, regional and postbus links); the United Kingdom’s Community Rail Partnerships; and the high-speed-rail “straw / tunnel effect” literature, including Japanese Shinkansen studies.
    9.
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative, modal-shift research notes and the scenario methodology set out in this brief — fifteen-minute station catchment, and low / central / high ranges for rail capture, induced demand, and per-trip local spend.
  • Not off the hook

    CRI community brief · June 2026

    Not Off the Hook

    In Alto’s own words: why a Kingston station makes the southern corridor more uncertain for the communities around it, not less.

    Alto HSR Citizen Research Initiative · Independent & non-partisan

    The short version

    The June 22 announcement can feel like a finish line for the communities between Ottawa, Kingston and Peterborough. It is closer to a starting gun. Alto’s CEO has said the company is now “concentrating on the southern corridor,” that the corridor there is still wide, and that the alignment will be drawn “in the next few months.” A station in Kingston does not spare the townships the line must cross to reach it, instead, it commits the line to crossing them.

    Three reasons people think the fight is over and why each is wrong

    After a feel-good announcement, it is natural to assume the danger has passed. Here are the three readings going around the corridor, and why each one misreads what was actually said.

    What it feels like
    What is actually true
    “The route moved to Kingston, so my area is safe.”
    A station is a destination, not a route. The tracks still have to travel the whole Ottawa–Kingston–Peterborough band to get there. A Kingston stop does not lift the line off the surrounding townships; it commits the line to passing through them.
    “A decision was made.”
    It was not. The Minister directed Alto to study a southern option, hedged “subject to technical feasibility and project requirements.” The alignment for this segment is not chosen until the 2027 consultation, with the impact assessment to follow.
    “If I’m not right on the 401, I’m fine.”
    Alto’s CEO said the line will not follow the 401 the whole way, and that the Ottawa-to-near-Kingston stretch is “probably too curvy.” That means the inland, off-highway countryside is exactly where the route is still open.

    What the CEO actually said

    In an interview the day of the announcement, Alto’s president and CEO described a search area that is widening, not closing. He said the northern route along the Highway 7 corridor has not been scrapped, it is “not off the table”. However, the likelihood of going back north is “less and less obvious,” because the company is now “concentrating on the southern corridor.”

    He described the corridor between Ottawa, Kingston and Peterborough as still “fairly wide,” and said the job over the next few months is to determine how to get from Ottawa to Kingston with the “alignment of least impact” by following existing infrastructure where possible and trying to limit impact on the agricultural sector. He added that the line likely would not follow Highway 401 entirely, and that the Ottawa-to-near-Kingston stretch is too curvy to use the highway as a corridor there.

    Read together, those statements describe the southern band as the primary search area, still wide, and actively being drawn right now. That is the opposite of a settled outcome according to Alto’s CEO.

    A wider search area, not a narrower one

    “Wide corridor” is Alto’s own phrase, and a wide corridor means nothing inside it is fixed. The band still runs from Ottawa to Peterborough by way of Kingston, and the communities inside it — among them Stone Mills, Greater Napanee, Tyendinaga, Rideau Lakes, Tay Valley and South Frontenac — are not on the edge of this decision. They are inside the active study area. Adding Kingston as a destination does not shrink that band; it gives the line a reason to run through the middle of it.

    “Least impact” is a promise, not a plan

    The reassuring language — “least impact,” “follow existing infrastructure,” “limit impact on agriculture” — is worth reading carefully. None of it is defined, none of it is published, and none of it is a commitment any community can hold Alto to yet. “Least impact” still means an impact, on someone, somewhere; and the decision to avoid the 401 where it is too curvy means the alternative runs through open farmland and rural settlement. A goal stated in an interview is not a protection written into a route.

    It is also the moment to keep the alternative on the table. Many residents told the consultation they would rather see existing rail service improved first (we call it High Performance Rail) before a new line is carved through the countryside. That option does not disappear because a station was named; it is exactly the question a wide-open corridor should still be asking.

    The clock, and why now is the moment

    The decision that affects you has not happened. Here is when it does.

    This fall (2026)
    Alto narrows the Central segment (Ottawa–Montréal) corridor and runs another round of public consultation.
    2027
    Consultation on the western segment (Toronto–Ottawa) — which contains the Peterborough–Ottawa southern option and the Kingston question — the segment that decides the route through these communities.
    ~January 2027
    The federal impact assessment is expected to begin and run about two years, with its own input opportunities.

    The alignment is on the drawing board over the next few months. The relief that follows a feel-good announcement is exactly what empties the room while the line is being drawn. The communities that stay organized and on the record are the ones whose concerns will define what “least impact” ends up meaning.

    What keeps your community on the map

    • Stay organized across township lines. The corridor crosses many municipalities; the case is strongest when those communities speak together rather than each assuming the line will land on someone else.
    • Document your property now. Photographs, surveys, drainage, wells and septic, farm operations and field connectivity. A clear record is your strongest tool the moment a route is proposed nearby.
    • Put your council and your MP on record. Municipal resolutions and parliamentary questions can demand the alignment criteria and the evidence. Keep your community’s position documented before the route is drawn.
    • Ask to see the rules. “Least impact” should come with published criteria and weightings. Ask for them. A standard you cannot read is a standard no one can be held to.
    • Mark the dates. Fall 2026 (Central), 2027 (your segment), and the impact assessment. Those are the rooms where the route is decided: be in them.

    A station for Kingston is not a reprieve for the corridor. The line still has to get there. Alto has said it has not decided how.

    Download the full brief (PDF)

    Sources

    1. Elliot Ferguson, “Alto CEO says there are options to add Kingston to rail project,” Kingston Whig-Standard, June 22, 2026.
    2. Transport Canada, news release on the What We Heard report and Kingston as a potential stop, June 22, 2026. canada.ca
    3. Alto, Public Consultation — What We Heard Report, Corridor Study Area (134 pp), June 2026. altotrain.ca

    Quoted phrases are the words of Alto’s president and CEO as reported in the Kingston Whig-Standard interview of June 22, 2026. The Alto HSR Citizen Research Initiative is an independent, non-partisan research project examining the proposed corridor through Eastern Ontario.

  • Heard not counted

    CRI analysis · June 2026

    Heard, Not Counted

    Alto’s What We Heard report is precise about how many people it reached and silent about what they said. That silence is not an omission — it is the design.

    Alto HSR Citizen Research Initiative · Independent & non-partisan

    What Alto counts, exactly

    324,026 unique online visits
    24,142 questionnaires completed
    19,903 map pins dropped
    14,503 media mentions

    What Alto leaves uncounted

    how many raised each theme
    concerns by category
    any sentiment split
    which issues mattered most

    The same report, two standards of precision: six significant figures for the inputs, no number at all for the outputs.

    The argument

    The report is accountability-shaped but accountability-proof. It maximizes the visible evidence that consultation happened while removing every element that would let anyone test what it produced — so that hearing is decoupled from consequence.

    1

    The smoking gun: asymmetric precision

    The clearest evidence isn’t interpretive — it’s on the page. Alto reports its inputs to six significant figures and its outputs with no number at all (see the ledger above).

    The qualitative colouring is asymmetric in the same breath. In adjacent sentences of the executive summary, support gets intensifiers and active voice — nation-building “viewed positively, alongside strong enthusiasm,” supporters who “expressed a desire” to move forward. Opposition gets neutral process-verbs and passive voice — land-acquisition opposition “was voiced,” concerns “raised… on many occasions.” Both are unquantified; one is painted warm and active, the other cool and passive. That asymmetry, in a single paragraph, is the legitimation machine in miniature.

    2

    A report that cannot be wrong

    The report says its themes were produced by “Artificial intelligence tools… semantic clustering, multi-label classification,” which also “were used to support report writing.” Add the absence of magnitude, the absence of attribution, and the instruction that the themes “are not presented in a specific order and they are all significant” — and the report becomes structurally unfalsifiable.

    There is no figure to check against the inputs, no ranking to dispute, no claim that could be shown false. “All significant” is not a finding; it is a flattening — it pre-emptively denies that overwhelming, concentrated opposition would look any different from a scatter of mild concerns. A report that cannot be wrong is not a record. It is a position statement wearing a record’s clothes.

    3

    The frame was set before the room opened

    The corridor that was consulted on was drawn first — from technical and financial criteria (“the straightest possible route,” “minimizing construction costs”) and the three 2025 RFP submissions — and then presented for feedback. The exercise is explicitly “corridor refinement”: consultation on the width of a band already drawn from cost-minimization, not on whether or where. The seven “project outcomes” are stated as fixed premises the consultation serves, never as propositions it could test.

    The consultation’s frame excludes the project’s own justification. A participant could object to a curve; they could not put on the record that the stated outcomes might be better met by upgrading existing lines — the question the public itself kept raising as “improve VIA first.” The frame did the foreclosing; the consultation only refined inside it.

    4

    Consent invoked, consent disclaimed

    Both reports invoke “Free, Prior, and Informed Consent” — and the word doing the work is consent. Yet the report never claims consent was obtained; it says Alto consults “with the aim of securing” it, then states flatly the process “is not a rights determination process.” It wears the standard as a credential while disclaiming the thing the standard names.

    Its own numbers undercut the credential: of 40 Indigenous communities contacted, 29 held meetings and 12 made further submissions — a thinning base for a report it calls “validated.” And corridor maps were shared only with communities that had signed a collaboration or non-disclosure agreement. Consultation conducted under NDA is a contradiction in terms for a public, rights-bearing process: you could only see what you were consulted on by signing away the ability to discuss it.

    5

    Responsiveness, staged

    The report — which documents Kingston-area demand — was released the same day, at Queen’s University, alongside the Minister’s direction to study a southern route through Kingston. The sequence manufactures a narrative of listening and responding. But the response is a direction to study, hedged twice (“potential,” “subject to technical feasibility”), and the real consultation on that segment is pushed to 2027. The report stages responsiveness in the present while deferring the substance past the next news cycle.

    6

    What this argument does not claim

    A sharper critique is also a more honest one. Naming what Alto can rebut makes the rest land harder.

    • Not that Alto ignored concerns. It didn’t — the southern-corridor section names farmland, the Frontenac Arch, karst and groundwater specifically. The defensible claim is narrower and deadlier: Alto records concerns in a form that cannot be acted on or audited.
    • Not that the comment counts are bad faith. The public-facing range (“nearly 20,000” vs “nearly 45,000”) is two framings and partly an artifact of windowing and de-duplication. The fair point is rhetorical: Alto’s own site reaches for the smaller number.
    • Not that using AI is the flaw. The flaw is that the taxonomy is undisclosed and the outputs unquantified. The target is the opacity, not the method.
    • Not that this was a representative poll. Neither report claims it was. The platform measures the intensity of the concerned — which is exactly why the absence of any sentiment or geographic breakdown is the tell.

    The line that holds

    Alto published a 134-page account of a consultation that is precise about how many people it reached and silent about what they said — and that silence is the product, not an omission.

    Download the full brief (PDF)

    Sources

    1. Alto, Public Consultation — What We Heard Report, Corridor Study Area (134 pp), June 2026.
    2. Alto, Indigenous Consultation — What We Heard Report, Corridor Study Area (24 pp), June 2026.
    3. Transport Canada, news release on the What We Heard report and Kingston as a potential stop, June 22, 2026. canada.ca

    Quoted phrases are taken directly from the reports named above. The Alto HSR Citizen Research Initiative is an independent, non-partisan research project examining the proposed high-speed rail corridor through Eastern Ontario. This analysis addresses how the consultation was reported; it takes no position here for or against the project itself.