Category: Analysis

  • Chapter 1: What is HPR

    Coalition for Better Rail · Research Brief · The HPR Framework

    What is HPR?

    An alternative built around the journey people actually take — not the top speed on the brochure.

    High-Performance Rail (HPR) is an integrated framework for modernising passenger and freight rail along an existing transportation corridor. Rather than a single greenfield high-speed line, HPR treats the corridor as one system to be optimised as a whole: a new-build passenger spine where new track earns its place, upgrades to existing infrastructure where they deliver more per dollar, and freight capacity improvements that let passenger and freight services each run to their own business model. It is designed to compete on total door-to-door travel time, to reach city centres and the communities in between, and to be delivered in affordable, demonstrable stages.

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    What is HPR? — Chapter 1 (PDF)
    The HPR framework in full: the three-part structure, the ten principles, and the case for a made-in-Canada alternative to greenfield high-speed rail
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    The Framework

    Three parts, one corridor strategy

    HPR is not a single thing but a whole-system approach with two working halves. The framework combines a passenger spine and a freight dimension into one corridor strategy, appraised together and delivered incrementally — so each mode can grow to its own business model rather than being forced onto the other’s infrastructure.

    HPR — High-Performance Rail · the framework

    The whole-system approach. HPR combines the passenger spine and the freight dimension into one corridor strategy, appraised together and delivered incrementally.

    HPPR — High-Performance Passenger Rail · the spine

    The physical passenger railway: new-build and grade-separated where the corridor requires it, engineered for reliable operation at speeds up to 240 km/h (150 mph), serving downtowns and the communities along the route.

    HPFR — High-Performance Freight Rail · the freight dimension

    The capacity that untangles freight from passenger obligations. Freed from passenger scheduling, freight can run to a more flexible timetable and operate longer trains — the levers that drive a lower operating ratio — so each mode grows without subordinating the other on shared track.

    The Ten Principles

    What HPR is built on

    01
    Holistic optimization. Treat the rail network as a single system to be optimised as a whole, respecting the disparate business models of freight and passenger operations rather than forcing one onto the other’s infrastructure. Avoid projects that monopolize funding, starving the many smaller improvements that would together deliver more.
    02
    A community railway. Build a railway that benefits the communities along the route, with the potential to deliver genuine, long-term prosperity to the places it passes — integrating them rather than alienating them, and so reducing community friction, political risk and ultimately cost.
    03
    Untangle freight from passenger. Build the capacity to separate freight from passenger obligations, so each can run to its own service pattern without one subordinating the other.
    04
    Fast enough. Target typical speeds in the 180–240 km/h band — fast enough to compete door-to-door without the greenfield-only alignments that higher speeds demand. A 240 km/h maximum is also the safer option in extreme temperatures (±30 °C).
    05
    Safe, comfortable and productive. Deliver a journey a car or plane cannot: grade separation and modern rolling stock make rail among the safest ways to travel, while generous space lets passengers work, rest or connect en route. Time on the train is usable time — a decisive advantage over driving.
    06
    Frequent and punctual. Compete on turn-up-and-go frequency and dependable punctuality — an on-time performance (OTP) above 90%, sustained through Canadian winters. Reliability, not peak speed, is what earns a traveller’s trust.
    07
    Downtown access and corridor communities. Prioritise city-centre access and serve the communities along the route, not only the endpoint city-pairs.
    08
    New-build plus upgrades. Combine new construction with upgrades to existing rail infrastructure, using each where it delivers the most value.
    09
    Mixed service on shared track. Allow regional, commuter and intercity services to operate over the same tracks, with freed freight capacity as a deliberate co-benefit.
    10
    Incremental investment strategy. Deliver in stages and invest where benefits are demonstrable — phasing improvements so each tranche earns its place, and avoiding the cost and risk concentration of a single megaproject.
    How HPR Differs

    A North American solution

    The defining difference is what the railway is optimised for. A design that chases 300-plus km/h commits, almost by necessity, to a new greenfield alignment — long straight sections, wide curve radii and bypasses that route around the very communities and city centres a passenger service exists to reach, with speed on the open track bought back in access time, capital and carbon. HPR inverts that priority: by accepting typical speeds in the 180–240 km/h range it can follow the existing corridor, upgrade what already works where prudent, reach downtowns directly, all while liberating capacity for freight — competitive door-to-door at a fraction of the capital exposure, in stages that can be re-scoped as evidence matures.

    It is also a difference of provenance. A greenfield high-speed line is essentially an imported experiment — the French passenger-rail model, built for a temperate, densely settled geography and a network that carries no freight. Established North American railroading is the opposite: freight-dominated, shared-track, and tested by hard winters and long distances. HPR is engineered for that reality — made in Canada, for Canadian conditions. It fosters domestic technology transferable to subsequent Canadian projects rather than transplanted from France, and is best understood not as a slower high-speed railway but as a different answer for a distinctly different continent: how to move the most people and freight, to the most useful places, at car-competitive prices, for the most defensible investment with the lowest possible risk.

    Travel Time, Not Speed

    The clock, not the speedometer

    A journey is not a single dash between two stations; it is a chain — reaching the station, waiting for the departure, the run itself, and getting to the final destination at the far end. Top speed touches only one link in that chain. Once access, waiting and egress are counted, the line-haul run is a fraction of the door-to-door total, and shaving it delivers steeply diminishing returns: the gap between 240 and 300 km/h saves minutes on the segment that is already the smallest part of the trip.

    Worse, the alignments that permit the highest speeds tend to push stations out of city centres, adding access and egress time that can outweigh whatever the faster run saved — so a train that is quicker on paper can be slower in practice. Frequency compounds the point: a train leaving soon beats a faster one you must wait an hour to board.

    The measure that matters

    Measured the way travellers actually experience it — and against the car, which over a corridor drive of some 540 kilometres is the real competitor — the figure that matters is the reliable door-to-door clock, not the number on the fastest stretch of track.

    The Price Lever

    Pricing for a car-centric market

    In a car-centric culture, the railway’s real competitor is not the airplane or the existing train but the private car — and against a car already owned, a trip is judged on its perceived marginal cost. That makes price the most direct lever on whether people switch. A line built at megaproject cost must recover that capital somewhere, and fares set to service debt price discretionary travellers straight back into their cars, hollowing out the very ridership the business case assumed. HPR’s lower capital cost is therefore not only a fiscal virtue but a demand strategy: a railway that costs less to build can price to fill trains rather than to service debt. Frequency, downtown access and reliable door-to-door times create the conditions for mode shift; price is what converts them into boardings — and where most trips default to the car, that fare is often the difference between a full train and an empty one.

    What HPR Is Not

    Neither political, nor all at once

    HPR is not a political project. Its route, its staging and its scope follow the evidence — engineering, economics and demographics — not political convenience or partisan preference. Where a claim cannot be grounded in that evidence, it is not made.

    Nor is it everything at once. Stage 1 — the scope of the current report — is deliberately bounded: it does not detour via Peterborough, it reaches Ottawa over upgraded existing lines rather than costly new-build, and it defers Québec City to a later stage. Each further stage is added only when the evidence and the need justify it.

    The Pitch

    A case built to be checked

    HPR does not ask to be believed; it asks to be checked. Every figure in its case is meant to be traced to a source, tested against what comparable projects actually cost and carried, and stated with its uncertainty rather than its best case. Where a promotional business case leads with a single confident number, HPR leads with a range and the reference class behind it — because the honest way to forecast a railway is from the record of railways already built, not from the hopes, ambitions and bias of the proponents hoping to build it.

    The result is a stronger case, not a softer one. HPR delivers a passenger spine that beats the car on door-to-door time at a fraction of the capital a greenfield high-speed line demands; freight capacity that lifts the operating ratio instead of fighting passengers for slots; benefits that arrive in stages, each proven before the next is committed; and an environmental and cost profile that improves, rather than worsens, once the whole life of the asset is counted. It needs no optimistic ridership and no heroic cost control, and no slick advertorials to stand up. That is the pitch: not the fastest railway that can be drawn, but the one that will be built, used, and pay its way — the case that survives the scrutiny the alternative cannot.

  • Development ethics for Alto

    Guest Submission · Development Ethics

    Development Ethics for Alto

    Brief to the Alto online public consultation

    JD
    Jay Drydyk
    Professor Emeritus, Carleton University
    Past President, International Development Ethics Association
    Publisher’s Note

    The ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative is pleased to publish this guest brief with the author’s permission. It is reproduced as written; the analysis, rankings, and recommendations are Dr. Drydyk’s own. Footnotes appear as endnotes at the foot of the page.

    Section 1

    The contractor and the public

    Suppose our roof is damaged, and we are restricted by our bank to dealing with only one contractor for the repair. The contractor tells us there are two options, A and B, both of which are risky and expensive. Then we find out there is a third option, which is not so risky or expensive. The contractor has not only concealed this from us but now refuses to talk about it.

    Is this an ethically acceptable way of doing business? No, it seems to violate basic values of honesty and transparency.

    By analogy, this seems to be how Alto has tried to do business with us as a public. The roof is our broken inter-city transportation system. The two expensive and risky options are two new high-speed rail [HSR] corridors put forward in the Alto project proposal of 2025-26. What I will call the ‘northern Shield corridor’ lies north of Highway 7, and what I will call the ‘Frontenac/Napanee corridor’ lies south of Highway 7. Farther south another corridor already exists, along the CN right of way and Highway 401. This third, most southerly corridor is the one that Alto is reluctant to discuss.1

    To put this in another way, the imaginary contractor and the real agents of Alto are both selling their solutions with logical fallacies. The contractor tells us: you need to fix your roof, so you need my options A or B. Alto: you need to fix your broken transportation system, so you need a new transportation corridor. Neither argument follows, because in each case there is a third option.

    Section 2

    Good development vs. maldevelopment

    Some development is worthwhile, but some is quite undesirable; this is an ethical difference, based on values, and with 80 years of post-WWII experience we know a lot about what these values are. Worthwhile development not only produces more, it also enhances people’s well-being and freedom, so that they are better able to shape their own lives for the better; it also does so equitably and sustainably. These are the pillars of what has been identified as a worthwhile ‘human development’ approach by the influential economist Mahbub ul Haq in collaboration with Nobel laureate Amartya Sen.2

    Meanwhile, other development researchers have studied what these broad values require in practice in cases of development projects (like Alto) that involve land-taking.3 Some guidance can be found in national legal systems, in international human rights law, and in operational policies of international financial institutions. Yet the evidence shows that ‘even when all three approaches are applied consistently, outcomes … are generally still poor’, impacting negatively on the livelihoods and well-being of people affected.4 A recent synthesis of this research has formulated six guiding principles to fill these gaps. Three of these are most significant for the Alto proposal:

    2. Fair procedures: promote inclusive decision-making through a fair and transparent procedure from the outset and throughout the lifecycle of the project;

    3. Fair distribution: ensure a fair distribution of impacts and benefits and align with the Sustainable Development Goals;

    6. Remedy and accountability: ensure remedy and accountability through access to grievance redress mechanisms, remediation and legal recourse.5

    These values and principles help to distinguish between good development and maldevelopment in five dimensions of the Alto proposal: public interest, landowner impact, community impact, environmental impact, and Indigenous peoples’ consent.

    Section 3

    Public interest, public need

    Development ethics tells us that people should not be displaced and land should not be taken for development except for projects that are in the public interest.6 What does ‘public interest’ mean here? It means that the gains or advantages created by the project are not entirely private gains, that very significant gains accrue to us as a public. An important standard of public interest is public need. Building schools and hospitals involves land-taking, by which some residents may be displaced, and yet there is great gain to the public, in having schools and hospitals, simply because schools and hospitals are things we need, as a public. This does not entail that building a particular school in a particular place is the best way to meet this need, but it does give very strong reason for building some such school where it is most needed.

    The term ‘high-speed rail’ has been used with different meanings in recent discussions, and so I want to be clear that what I will mean is rail service with maximum speeds faster than 200km/hr. This range corresponds with the definition of HSR by the International Union of Railways.7 This range includes what Alto means by ‘high-speed’, which is faster than 300km/hr, but it also includes speeds in the 200 range. Unlike the Alto definition (>300km/hr), the broader UIC definition captures the majority of high-speed rail services currently offered in Japan and Europe.8

    There is a strong case that high-speed rail, in this sense, is a public need in Ontario and Québec. According to this argument, HSR is needed to shift people’s choices in the Ontario-Québec corridor from airplanes, cars, and buses to trains. This is needed for two main reasons. First, continued reliance on cars, buses, and airplanes, for generations to come, has an unacceptable carbon footprint, which will contribute to ever greater loss of life, property, homes, and habitats through climate change. Second, continued reliance on cars, buses, and airplanes imposes a drag on economic productivity, putting downward pressure on livelihoods and well-being throughout the economy. For these two reasons, it is argued, we have a long-term need to change the mode of inter-city transport in this corridor, and, to achieve this we have a long-term public need for high-speed rail.9

    However, this does not determine where and how HSR should be built – with one exception. Building HSR stations at locations removed from city centres defeats the purpose of HSR (for travelers) by adding commuting time to reach the stations.10 As to where and how HSR is built, public benefit is only one value that matters: we also have equity/fairness/justice and sustainability to consider. There are equity issues pertaining to landowners, communities, and Indigenous peoples, which I will consider in the next three sections; environmental values will be considered in section 7. All of these raise further issues of accountability.

    Section 4

    Landowner impact

    When we notice unfairness or injustice, we are perceiving some kind of deprivation as being wrong. Even if a development project meets public needs and creates public benefits, our intuitive sense of justice will object if the project imposes unwarranted burdens and harms on others. It remains true for cooking that, ‘If you want make an omelet you have to break some eggs,’ – but not as a metaphor excusing harmful development. Thus it is widely accepted that development projects should not make people worse off, either by displacing them from their land, or through other community impacts.11

    Paying people market value for the land that is taken from them may still leave them worse off. One reason is the impact of land-taking on livelihoods. When his land was assessed for compensation by an oil pipeline project, a Ugandan farmer remarked, ‘I had 10 mango trees where I used to make a lot of money every season and look after 11 dependents, we got only 670,000 [shillings] … they didn’t think about the capital value required to plant new trees and how many years it would take us to start harvesting fruits again.’12 The Alto project does not threaten any mango trees in Eastern Ontario, but it does threaten to impact livelihoods by dividing farms. It may be possible to mitigate these effects, but it would be complicated: organizing and paying for land swaps so that each farm is made whole by other land on the same side of the fenced-off right of way. One challenge of land replacement strategies like these is to ensure that the replacement land is of as good quality as the land lost. If this is not possible, compensation for lost revenue/livelihood would require revenue sharing plans on the part of the project.

    The Ontario Federation of Agriculture has stated:

    It is not acceptable for any railway to divide properties and thereby “landlock” the interior of the lot. Any crossing must be at least 10 metres wide to allow large and irregularly shaped farm and forestry equipment to be conveyed safely across the railway. Over- and underpasses must be engineered to accommodate the weight, height, and width of not only today’s farm and forestry equipment but also what machines may be used in the future. Crossings must also be engineered to prevent equipment rollovers. Alto must also preserve drainage system functionality and not adversely affect natural drainage systems.

    Alto has stated that the entirety of the railway corridor will be fenced. Alto must consult on the fencing design to ensure farm animals cannot stray onto the tracks, as some farm animals have special fencing needs.

    In addition, Transport Canada and Alto must provide fair and proportionate compensation for other negative affections caused by the railway, which will permanently affect farm production and limit growth potential.13

    The issue here is equity: if these effects are not fully mitigated and/or compensated, the farmers will bear special burdens for the building of high-speed rail – as if an arbitrary high-speed rail tax were imposed upon farmers on whose land track was laid.

    Currently no accountability mechanisms have been established to ensure that such mitigations and compensations are carried out, and to which landowners can seek recourse in case mitigation and compensation are not carried out. Government has an ethical obligation to establish such mechanisms before making a final investment decision.

    Section 5

    Community impacts

    According to Alto:

    However, this same railway separation also has other consequences for human security. Limited overpass/underpass crossings may increase distances and times for fire and ambulance services, potentially causing fatal delays.15 These security gaps can be mitigated by careful planning of overpasses and underpasses; mitigation plans should be agreed with the municipalities responsible for delivering these services. Best practices of high-speed rail systems in other countries should be followed.

    Once again accountability is a problem. To date no accountability mechanisms have been established to ensure agreement and planning for timely fire and emergency health services after Alto rail lines have been built and separated from roadways. Nor is there any body to which municipalities can seek recourse in case such agreement and planning do not occur, or in case agreements are not fulfilled. Government has an ethical obligation to establish such mechanisms before making a final investment decision.

    If the Frontenac/Napanee or northern shield corridors are chosen for HSR, existing VIA service will be impacted by service cuts as longer-distance travellers shift to HSR. At present Kingston is the fifth-busiest passenger train station in the country. There is a public need to maintain viable service for these passengers and others from stations along the existing VIA corridor. Moreover, community impacts from Alto would reach far beyond eastern Ontario. If 80% of VIA revenue currently comes from passengers travelling in the Windsor-Québec corridor, and much of this is diverted to Cadence as operator of HSR between Toronto and Québec, much less will be available to support other major VIA trains, such as: Montréal-Halifax (‘The Ocean’); Toronto-Vancouver (‘The Canadian’); Winnipeg-Churchill; Jasper-Prince Rupert; Sudbury-White River; Montréal-Jonquière/Senneterre. Allowing these train services to be degraded or discontinued would constitute a clear neglect of public interest. Accordingly, the Alto HSR Citizens Research Initiative has called for two immediate legislative responses:

    Statutory Service Guarantee for the Kingston SubdivisionAny federal legislation enabling ALTO must include a statutory charter guaranteeing minimum VIA Rail service levels on the Kingston Subdivision. The charter must specify minimum daily frequencies, protect morning and evening service windows, and require public consultation before schedule changes affecting intermediate communities.

    Dedicated, Legislated Funding for the National Rail NetworkParliament must establish a dedicated funding stream for VIA Rail’s non-corridor network — The Ocean, The Canadian, and remote services — entirely independent of corridor revenue that will transfer to Cadence. This fund must be protected as a condition of any ALTO implementation agreement.16

    The appropriate timing for such legislative action would be as close as possible to the final investment decision on the Alto project.

    Section 6

    Indigenous peoples’ consent

    Alto has stated, ‘We are committed to engaging in meaningful consultations with the aim of securing the Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC), of potentially impacted communities.’17 The phrasing is ambiguous. Are they committed to achieving FPIC, or only to holding ‘meaningful consultations with the aim’ of doing so? The UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples is unambiguous on this point.

    Meaningful consultation is not the end; it is only a means to achieving ‘free and informed consent prior to the approval of any project affecting their lands or territories and other resources’.

    The earlier High Frequency Rail project which preceded Alto included consultation with ‘more than 40 potentially impacted Indigenous communities and organizations’.19 However, that consultation focused entirely on supplementing the Request for Proposals with provisions for Indigenous social benefits and participation. There was no mention of consent with regard to impact on Indigenous territory; in any case, the Request for Proposals for HFR has been superseded by the Alto HSR proposal awarded to Cadence, now in co-development phase. Site selection and alignment have not yet been specified by Alto and Cadence. At the present time it is unclear whether any discussions have been undertaken with the Mohawk of the Bay of Quinte in Ontario or the Mohawk of Kanesatake in Quebec about use of or impact on their territories. Nor is there any evidence of commitment to recourse or accountability mechanisms for benefit/land/participation commitments that will be made to them.

    Section 7

    Environmental Impact

    For the route through the Frontenac Arch and Napanee Plain, environmental risks are significant. For the northern route largely over Canadian Shield, risks are less clear. For the southernmost corridor, environmental risks have already been incurred by the CN right of way and Highway 401; one would expect additional risks from HSR to be small by comparison. Doing nothing to shift travelers over to rail also incurs the environmental risks incurred by flying and driving, notably contributions to climate change. The difficult question is actually the normative question: which risks must be avoided? If worthwhile development is environmentally sustainable, then the answer is that we must avoid risks that are unsustainable, and this shifts the question to: what are the meaning and standards for sustainability?

    While precise answers to these normative questions are elusive, two broad ways of framing them have emerged over the past forty years to provide starting points for public deliberation about environmental risks. The 1987 Brundtland Commission proposed that development is sustainable when it meets the needs of present generations without jeopardizing the needs of future generations.20 More recently, the UNDP Human Development Report of 2020 called for steering development to ease the ‘planetary pressures’ that historical and contemporary social and economic development unleash.21 The main idea here is that development puts pressures on the planet, and the planet pushes back in ways that make present and future human flourishing more uncertain. At the extreme:

    Climate change and biodiversity integrity loss are tightly coupled core boundaries, and human activities are currently pushing both of them into a high-risk zone. If humanity breaches planetary boundaries too far or for too long, it may disrupt planetary life support systems, with substantial risks for human life as we know it.22

    The HSR corridor over part of the Frontenac Arch will also traverse an adjoining limestone plain surrounding the Napanee and Salmon Rivers. Under the limestone plain is found karst geology, featuring sinkholes, fissures, caves, and disappearing streams; above it are rare alvar ecosystems based on terrain with thin or no soil cover. These ecosystems harbour several species protected by the Species at Risk Act; it is doubtful that Alto could show that its construction can meet requirements of this Act. Construction would also affect subsurface water flows in unpredictable ways, possibly damaging freshwater access and use downstream. For other ecosystems in other places it may be possible to mitigate environmental impacts of HSR, as for example best practice standards have evolved in Europe for protecting essential pathways for migratory species. If such mitigation strategies can succeed for a CN/401 corridor, or for a northern shield corridor, they must be planned, budgeted, and carried out. However, in the Frontenac Arch and Napanee Plain these particular mitigation strategies may be of no use, due to the combination of karst geology below and alvar ecosystems above. Since biodiversity and freshwater access are two dimensions in which there are planetary boundaries, it follows that, in this corridor, an HSR line would be adding to planetary pressures rather than reducing them. Building HSR in the Frontenac/Napanee corridor, then, qualifies as environmental maldevelopment.23

    In the northern Shield corridor, biodiversity and freshwater impacts may be less pronounced and more amenable to mitigation. The HSR line and its construction are less likely to disrupt water flow in this corridor, where streams run parallel to rail alignment. The line would disrupt movement by larger mammals such as moose, elk, and bear, but these are not species at risk. More research is needed to determine what kinds of mitigation are required; international evidence suggests that there are few types of overpass that large mammals will actually use, and these are quite expensive.24 Effects on other species also requires further study and assessment. A clear standard for wildlife mitigation, with accountability mechanisms, is needed to ensure that adequate mitigation measures are chosen and implemented.

    Section 8

    Ranking the options: from morally worst to not so bad

    These two frameworks – future generations and planetary pressures – can help to orient discussion of environmental and social impacts in ethical, value-based terms. We can consider what will be the result of rolling out the various HSR options over multiple future generations. How will these decisions now affect planetary pressures exerted by humans then? Is it possible to assess or at least imagine how much closer to or in excess of planetary boundaries we get, in each scenario? In light of this, we can rank those options, as to how comparatively undesirable they are, from a development ethics perspective.

    The following rankings are only illustrative, expressing my own moral assessment, based on reasons for concern that I am aware of at the present time. This illustration, however, does have a point, namely that it is plausible and powerful to rank the options before us in terms of their enduring impact both to enhance human well-being and to reduce the dangerous pressures we are placing upon the planetary systems that sustain us. What we need, I conclude, is a public deliberation to make such a ranking.

    1
    Status quo.If there is no replacement for current VIA Rail levels of service, travelers will continue to be shunted into cars, buses, and airplanes to travel between Québec, Montréal, Ottawa, and Toronto (and indeed London and Windsor). The carbon footprint for this travel will grow apace. There being no other proposals on the horizon to compensate, I conclude that continuation of the status quo on VIA Rail will mean continued contribution to the death, illness, and destruction of property and habitats that result from carbon-induced climate change.
    2
    Frontenac/Napanee corridor, without mitigation.Mitigation for landowners and community safety are feasible and morally mandatory; however, for the sake of ranking consider the possibility that it is not carried out, so we have: unnecessary and inequitable loss to livelihoods and human security. In that respect, this option ranks worse than the following one:
    3
    Frontenac/Napanee corridor, with human/community mitigation.Well-being and equity issues in the previous option are removed, but, on the environmental side, ecological mitigation seems unlikely. Over many generations, then, the effects we can anticipate from HSR include (a) expansion of human well-being; (b) reduction in the particular pressures imposed by the carbon footprint of travel between Windsor and Québec; but (c) significantly increased planetary pressures both on biodiversity and on freshwater access.
    4
    Northern Canadian Shield corridor, without mitigation.Although much of this territory is more remote, there are still roads, tracks, and migratory paths that can be cut off by HSR fencing. Human security and wildlife migration will still be impacted unless mitigation measures are adopted.
    5
    Northern Canadian Shield corridor, with mitigation.With landowner and community mitigation, inequitable losses are reduced, so that we can anticipate (a) expansion of human well-being, along with (b) reduction in the particular pressures imposed by the carbon footprint of travel between Windsor and Québec; (c) with mitigation it may be possible to avoid increasing planetary pressures on biodiversity, but this is not perfectly clear, either; (d) adverse impacts on fresh water are less likely. Rolling this forward over multiple generations, we want to ensure monitoring for unforeseen environmental problems. This could be addressed by establishing capability in each region affected by HSR for ongoing environmental monitoring, funded by revenue sharing from operation of HSR service.
    6
    Southern CN/401 corridor, without mitigation.Because this corridor already exists, one might expect fewer new adverse impacts. However, without mitigation, mandatory grade separation and fencing will adversely affect humans and other species alike, which makes this option worse than the final one.
    7
    Southern CN/401 corridor, with mitigationfor community and wildlife impacts to highest standards of European/Asian HSR, with further direction from the environmental assessment. With landowner and community mitigation, inequitable losses are reduced, so that we can anticipate (a) expansion of human well-being. In addition, the problem of depriving service to Kingston is avoided. Over future generations we can also expect (b) reduction in the particular pressures imposed by the carbon footprint of travel between Windsor and Québec. Following best European/Asian practices, modified by site-specific environmental assessment, (c) with mitigation it may be possible to avoid increasing planetary pressures on biodiversity as well as (d) impacts on fresh water. Still, rolling this forward over multiple generations, we want to ensure monitoring for unforeseen environmental problems by establishing, in each affected region, capability for ongoing environmental monitoring, funded by revenue sharing from HSR operation.

    The worst option, according to this, is the status quo. Doing nothing now about intercity travel has the worst impact on well-being and planetary pressures for future generations. The Frontenac/Napanee options are not much better. An independent public panel, I believe, would confirm these rankings and could also shed more light on the others.

    Section 9

    Recommendations to the Government of Canada

    1
    Make corridor proposals public, including the CN/401 corridor. Immediately require Alto to develop and make public feasible alignment plans for (a) the CN/401 corridor, along with any alignment plans under active consideration for (b) the northern Canadian Shield corridor; and (c) the Frontenac/Napanee corridor. Require each of these plans to include cost estimates for wildlife and road crossings at high international standards, for land replacement to maintain farm viability, and for revenue sharing to fund ongoing monitoring of environmental impacts.
    2
    Make corridor choice a public choice. Prior to Final Investment Decision, appoint an independent public panel to recommend choice between corridor proposals (including the status quo), (a) on grounds of public interest, community impact, and environmental impacts/pressures; (b) considering these impacts for several generations (c) with powers to modify any proposals submitted, and (d) with a mandate to recommend mechanisms of recourse and accountability.
    3
    Obtain Indigenous peoples’ consent. Prior to Final Investment Decision, ensure that free and informed consent to impacts on their lands has been given by affected Indigenous peoples, along with mechanisms of recourse and accountability for community and environmental impacts on those lands as well as for commitments to Indigenous participation and community benefits.
    4
    Establish accountability mechanisms and environmental monitoring. Withhold Final Investment Decision until mechanisms of recourse and accountability have been established to support commitments for (a) landowners, (b) communities, (c) wildlife impacts, and (d) Indigenous communities. Do not invest in an HSR proposal that does not allocate revenue in the operational phase for ongoing regionally-controlled environmental monitoring.
    5
    Protect VIA Rail with legislation and funding. Establish service levels and funding streams for regional service along the Windsor-Montreal corridor and for VIA Rail’s non-corridor network – The Ocean, The Canadian, and remote services.
    Section 10

    Recommendations to Alto

    A1
    Corridor proposals. From the perspective of development ethics, corridor choice is not yours to make; this is properly a public choice. Accordingly, you are obligated to prepare development options for all of the feasible HSR corridors, to facilitate public choice among them.
    A2
    Request and obtain Indigenous people’s consent. Ensure that free and informed consent to impacts on their lands has been given by affected Indigenous peoples.
    A3
    Negotiate livelihood replacement. In negotiating with landowners, ensure that compensation covers livelihood replacement (including, for farmers, drainage and access to fields), including revenue sharing if necessary.
    A4
    Negotiate revenue sharing for ongoing regionally-controlled environmental monitoring during the operational phase.
    A5
    Negotiate mechanisms of recourse and accountability to support commitments made for (a) landowners, (b) communities, (c) wildlife impacts and environmental monitoring, and (d) Indigenous communities.
    References

    Notes

    1
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative, How History Led Us Here, March 2026, citizenresearch.ca/how-history-led-us-here, and Where We Stand on the Route, altohsrcitizenresearch.ca, accessed April 9, 2026.
    2
    Mahbub ul Haq, Reflections on Human Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995). Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1999.
    3
    Peter Penz, Jay Drydyk, and Pablo Bose, Displacement by Development: Ethics, Rights, and Responsibilities (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011).
    4
    Smyth, Eddie, Susanna Price, and Frank Vanclay, ‘Fair and Equitable Land Access (FELA) by Development Projects: Enhancing Governance for Sustainable Development Outcomes When Projects Displace People,’ (Sustainable Development 2025, p. 3.
    5
    Ibid.
    6
    Penz, Drydyk, and Bose 2011, p. 211.
    7
    Union Internationale des Chemins de fer (UIC), ‘The Definition of High Speed Rail’ (UIC Communications: 2018). Accessed April 13, 2026. uic.org.
    8
    Wikipedia, ‘High-Speed Rail in Europe’ (March 31, 2026) en.wikipedia.org. Wikipedia, ‘Shinkansen’ (March 14, 2026) en.wikipedia.org.
    9
    While I find that this argument is sound, it is only fair to note that others disagree. The core argument I have outlined is supplemented with other lines of argument in Alto’s ‘Fast Forward’ document (Alto (VIA HFR – VIA TGF Inc.), ‘Fast Forward: Shaping Canada’s Future with a High-Speed Rail Network’ (March 2025) altotrain.ca) For opposing arguments see Tasnim Fariha, and David Jones, ‘High-Speed Potential, High-Stakes Decisions: The Policy Case for Alto’ (C.D. Howe Institute, December 11, 2025) cdhowe.org, Jerome Gessaroli, ‘Canada’s next Budget Bomb Is the Alto High-Speed Rail Project’ (Macdonald-Laurier Institute, January 14, 2026.) macdonaldlaurier.ca. The Citizens Research Initiative argues for upgrading the status quo to a ‘High Performance Rail’ system with top speeds not exceeding 200km/hr. (Where we Stand on the Route, op. cit.) For arguments that raise complications rather than expressing outright opposition, see also: Johnny Renton, ‘The Good, Bad and Awful of the Alto High Speed Rail Project, and How to Fix the Flaws and Concerns Surrounding It.’ (Substack: Next Stop, Downtown Canada, February 4, 2026) johnnyrenton.substack.com; Kathryn Smith Exon and Egon Terplan. ‘Keeping High-Speed Rail on Track: Learning from Other North American Projects’ (Toronto: School of Cities, June 6, 2025) schoolofcities.utoronto.ca; and Michael Schabas, ‘Alto Conceptual Design and Business Case” (January 12, 2026) available on Google Docs, Google Docs.
    10
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative, The Station Location Problem (2026) citizenresearch.ca/station-location.
    11
    Penz, Drydyk, and Bose, Chapter 7.
    12
    Nassir Mwanje, ‘Community Perceptions of Fair Compensation in Land Expropriation: Insights from Uganda through a Capability Approach’ (Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, forthcoming).
    13
    Ontario Federation of Agriculture, ‘High-Speed Rail’ (2026) ofa.on.ca/issues/high-speed-rail.
    14
    Alto (VIA HFR – VIA TGF Inc.), Advanced Engineering Driving High-Speed Rail (February 19, 2026) altotrain.ca.
    15
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative, Fire Services – Citizen Research (March 2026) citizenresearch.ca/fire-services, and Healthcare Access – Citizen Research (March 2026) citizenresearch.ca/healthcare-access.
    16
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative, ‘VIA Rail on the Kingston Subdivision: Service Erosion, Funding Collapse, and the National Rail Risk from ALTO HSR’ (April 2026) citizenresearch.ca/via-future.
    17
    Alto (VIA HFR – VIA TGF Inc.), ‘Building Together: Indigenous Partnerships in Alto’s Vision’ altotrain.ca.
    18
    United Nations, Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (General Assembly, 2007) un.org
    19
    Alto (VIA HFR – VIA TGF Inc.). What We Heard & What We’re Doing Report. 2023. altotrain.ca.
    20
    World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987).
    21
    The ‘planetary pressures’ framework is based on several decades of ‘planetary boundaries’ research. To simplify: the core idea is that there are nine specific dimensions of planetary change that range from low risk to growing risk to high risk for human flourishing. Among these, ozone depletion, climate change, biodiversity, ocean acidification, land use change, and freshwater use are most familiar in the public sphere. A good entry point into the literature is Human Development Report 2020: The Next Frontier; Human Development and the Anthropocene, Chapter 2, ‘Unprecedented – The Scope, Scale and Speed of Human Pressures on the Planet’ (New York: UNDP, 2020), pp. 45-68.
    22
    UNDP op. cit., p. 51.
    23
    See Andrew Hyett, How Hydrology Shapes the Design – and Cost – of High-Speed Rail (March 2026) citizenresearch.ca, and the following publications by ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative (2026): Potential Effects of High-Speed Rail on the Napanee River citizenresearch.ca/napanee-river-2; A River in the Path of Two Rail Corridors citizenresearch.ca/salmon-river;
    24
    See Hyett op. cit. and two other publications of ALTO HSR Citizen Research Imitative (2026): The Wildlife Crossing Problem citizenresearch.ca/wildlife-crossings; Wildlife Connectivity, Hunting Heritage, and Game Species Habitat: Impacts of the Proposed ALTO High-Speed Rail Corridors citizenresearch.ca.
  • The Stations that aren’t there

    The Stations That Aren’t There

    The tourism ALTO’s line leaves at the station — and the small-town visitor economy an integrated network could reach instead.

    ⚠ A short list of city stops

    ALTO’s mandate fixes seven stations — Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Laval, Montréal, Trois-Rivières, and Québec City — only five of them between the endpoints, and every one a city rather than a recreational town. To hold 300+ km/h, the dedicated new alignment stops as little as possible: the original eastern-Ontario option ran a straight line with no stop between Peterborough and Ottawa. Alto FAQ

    After consultation, the government signalled in June 2026 a strong preference for a more southerly route nearer Highway 401 with a potential Kingston stop, keeping the northern corridor alive but deprioritised; the final alignment is still being assessed. Either way the pattern holds — a handful of city stops, and access by car: ALTO’s own pitch is that most residents east of Peterborough would be within a 25-minute drive of a station. The small towns and shorelines that draw the corridor’s leisure travel sit off the line. CBC

    Critical Finding

    ALTO frames tourism as a metro-connectivity product: faster links between big cities. But the corridor’s large, capturable, and better-distributed tourism opportunity is the opposite trip — domestic leisure travel from the four metros out to smaller towns and recreational areas. That market is already huge, overwhelmingly intra-provincial, mostly same-day, and almost entirely car-dependent.

    This is not small towns instead of big cities. A faster, more reliable High Performance trunk improves the metro trip too — most of the way, since the large gain is over today’s freight-delayed VIA service, not over ALTO. An integrated network reaches the metro market and the small-town market; ALTO’s express spine reaches the first, marginally faster, and by geometry bypasses the second — and can draw activity toward its hub stations rather than distributing it.

    On transparent, adjustable assumptions (a fifteen-minute station catchment, scenario ranges for capture and induced demand), an integrated network could plausibly generate an illustrative band of roughly $30 million to $640 million a year in net-new, locally-retained small-town tourism spending. These are scenario figures, not a forecast; the point is that the benefit is real, net-new rather than displaced, and lands in the communities the express line skips.

    The Market

    A large market, already on the road

    1 in 3
    domestic trips is for holidays, leisure or recreation — the market ALTO’s frame overlooks
    StatCan National Travel Survey
    ~14%
    of domestic travel spending goes to gas and vehicle operation — the leisure market is car-locked
    StatCan National Travel Survey
    ~$200M
    illustrative central net-new small-town tourism per year an integrated network could capture (band ~$30M to ~$640M)
    Initiative scenario

    The domestic leisure market the corridor sits inside is very large. About one in three domestic trips by Canadians is for holidays, leisure or recreation — on the order of ninety-five million such trips nationally in a normal pre-pandemic year — and travel within Canada has since climbed to new highs, with tens of billions of dollars spent each quarter.

    In Ontario, domestic travellers made roughly 116 million visits in a recent full year, over 93 per cent of them Ontarians travelling within their own province; Quebec is the second most-visited province. Most of this travel is same-day — in Ontario about two-thirds — and a same-day trip already means a journey of at least forty kilometres each way.

    And it is car travel. Gas and vehicle operation is consistently one of the three largest categories of domestic travel spending, at around 14 per cent — a direct measure of how car-locked leisure travel to non-metro destinations currently is. Per-visit spending is modest (same-day visits average roughly $70 in Ontario and $75 in Quebec) but the volume is the story.

    This is the demand pool. It is intra-provincial, high-frequency, price-sensitive, and today almost entirely dependent on the private car — which is precisely the market a convenient, well-priced, integrated rail network could convert, and precisely the market a metro-to-metro express line does not address.

    The Geography

    Where the leisure map meets the line

    The test the Initiative applied is simple: which of the corridor’s recreational regions fall within a fifteen-minute reach of a station ALTO is mandated to build? On that test, most do not.

    Recreational regionRelationship to the ALTO line
    Prince Edward County (ON)No station. The nearest existing rail town, Belleville, is bypassed by the northern alignment. Unserved.
    Thousand Islands / Gananoque (ON)Hinges on the Kingston stop, under assessment since June 2026 on the preferred southern route. If confirmed, Kingston would interconnect the existing VIA station and serve as a genuine gateway — though access stays a drive-to-station model. Conditional.
    Northumberland shore — Cobourg, Port Hope (ON)The line routes inland via Peterborough, away from the lakeshore towns and their existing rail. Unserved.
    Kawarthas (ON)Peterborough is a mandated stop and a genuine gateway. Served.
    Rideau corridor — Perth, Westport, Smiths Falls (ON)Off the alignment; no station. Unserved.
    Eastern Townships / Cantons-de-l’Est (QC)South of Montréal, off the Québec-bound line. Unserved.
    Mauricie (QC)Trois-Rivières is a mandated stop and a gateway. Served.
    Charlevoix (QC)Northeast of Québec City, far beyond the line’s end. Unserved.
    Laurentians / Mont-Tremblant (QC)North of Laval; the resort areas lie well beyond any mandated station. Unserved.

    Three of the stops are real recreational gateways, and this brief counts them as such: Peterborough for the Kawarthas, Trois-Rivières for the Mauricie, and — if confirmed — Kingston for the Thousand Islands. But even among these, ALTO’s own materials place Peterborough and Trois-Rivières at the city’s edge, near highways rather than in the centre; only a Kingston stop, reusing the existing VIA station, would set a visitor down in the town itself. The pattern is nonetheless clear: the station set is a list of cities, and whether the eastern-Ontario segment runs north or on the preferred southern line, it stops at cities and passes the belt of small towns and shorelines where corridor residents actually spend their leisure time.

    The Mechanism

    An express spine concentrates; it does not distribute

    Two features of a 300+ km/h line work against dispersed tourism. The first is stop spacing. High speed is only worth building if the train rarely stops; every added station erodes the time saving that justifies the cost. A line optimised for Toronto–Montréal in about three hours cannot also be a network of small-town halts — the two objectives are in direct tension, and the metros win.

    The second is the straw effect (sometimes the tunnel effect), one of the better-documented findings in high-speed-rail economics: fast, few-stop lines tend to concentrate activity in their terminal cities and can draw it out of the places they pass. For tourism specifically, a traveller moved from metro to metro in three hours has no reason to stop in between, and the towns without a platform capture nothing. The honest reading is therefore not that ALTO is merely unhelpful to small-town tourism, but that its geometry can be actively adverse to it.

    An integrated High Performance network works the other way. A trunk at 180–240 km/h on existing corridors, with regional feeders and timed local connections, trades a little top speed for many more points of access — and it is the access, not the speed, that unlocks the leisure trip.

    Couldn’t ALTO just add the last-mile links?

    It could, and it says it will: ALTO has publicly stated it wants the network interconnected with the REM and metro in Montréal and Laval, the LRT and VIA in Ottawa, and the same in Kingston. Municipal and regional-transit integration is a policy choice open to any operator, not a property of one technology. But last-mile links work on top of stations — they amplify access at stops that exist; they cannot create a stop where the line does not run. And ALTO’s own access model is drive-to-station: its selling point for the Kingston option is that most residents east of Peterborough would be within a 25-minute drive of a platform — car-dependent access, the opposite of the car-free leisure trip. The binding constraint is the number and placement of stops, and no shuttle programme changes it.

    The comparison is both-and, not either-or

    High Performance Rail does not trade the metro trip away to reach the small towns; it improves both. A more frequent, more reliable trunk on dedicated track would substantially boost metro-to-metro leisure travel over today’s freight-delayed VIA service — and most of that gain comes from leaving freight-priority track, not from the final increment of speed. The Initiative’s own analysis finds ALTO’s extra 17 to 25 minutes per city pair is a small addition to a benefit High Performance Rail has already largely captured. So an integrated network reaches the metro market and the small-town market; ALTO reaches the first, marginally faster, and forecloses the second.

    Even where ALTO stops, the platform tends to sit outside the centre

    The design privileges speed over central access, and the station choices show it. The one true downtown terminal, Montréal, depends on a tunnel of more than ten kilometres under the Rivière des Prairies and Mount Royal — costed by a McGill analysis at over a billion dollars a kilometre, some 12 to 18 per cent of the whole $60–90 billion budget. As the single most expensive discrete element on the line, with a suburban Laval station already built into the first phase, it is the obvious thing to defer or drop if costs run over — as, on megaproject form, they will. The others already point the same way: by ALTO’s own CEO, Toronto’s first station will be suburban, opening ahead of any downtown stop; the Transport Minister has set aside the historic downtown Ottawa station on cost and geology grounds; Québec City’s central Gare du Palais is largely ruled out as too slow; and Peterborough, Trois-Rivières and Laval are sited near highways and open land to hold the 300 km/h line. Should the Montréal tunnel go the way of the others, not one of the four major anchors would be left with a secure downtown station. Where the design builds fresh for speed, the platform lands outside town and the visitor arrives by car — the opposite of the car-free leisure trip. The one honest exception is reuse: at Ottawa’s Tremblay hub and a possible Kingston on the VIA line, ALTO leans on an existing transit-connected station and access works — which is exactly the High Performance model of keeping the platform where the town already is.

    The Estimate

    A transparent scenario, not a forecast

    The following is deliberately built as visible arithmetic. Every input is a parameter the reader can change; the three columns are a low, central, and high scenario rather than a single prediction. The catchment is set at the fifteen-minute reach used for the geography test above.

    Parameter (annual, at maturity)LowCentralHigh
    Addressable leisure-trip pool — metro origin, destination within 15 min of a networked station3.0M6.0M9.0M
    × Rail capture of addressable car trips10%20%30%
    = Shifted rail trips0.30M1.20M2.70M
    × Induced-demand uplift+10%+25%+40%
    = Rail leisure trips at maturity0.33M1.50M3.78M
    × Net local spend per trip (blended same-day / overnight)$90$130$170
    = Annual net-new local tourism spend~$30M~$195M~$640M

    Illustrative scenario arithmetic. Each parameter is an input, not an observation; the central column is one plausible path through the band, not a point forecast. Pool figures represent a single-digit-millions slice of the corridor’s tens of millions of annual leisure trips.

    Read as a band, an integrated network plausibly captures somewhere between a few tens of millions and roughly $640 million a year in net-new, locally-retained small-town tourism spending, with a central illustrative figure near $200 million. The width of that band is the honest expression of the uncertainty; narrowing it is a modelling exercise, not a rhetorical one. What matters for the comparison with ALTO is not that the high scenario approaches ALTO’s $800 million claim, but that these are net-new and locally-retained dollars — not the gross, un-netted, metro-concentrated figure ALTO reports — and that they land in the communities the express line bypasses.

    The Reference Class

    Integration is the unlock — the Swiss test

    The case that rail can distribute tourism to small towns is not hypothetical; it is the everyday reality of the most integrated networks. Switzerland is the standing proof of concept: timed-transfer scheduling, a single ticketing system, and regional and postbus connections that reach valley and lakeside towns make car-free leisure travel the default rather than the exception, and tourism spending is spread across small communities precisely because the network reaches and connects them. The United Kingdom’s community-rail partnerships show the same mechanism at modest scale, turning secondary lines into local visitor economies.

    The reference class also carries its warning, which this brief states plainly: where fast lines are built without that integration, the straw effect can leave intermediate places worse off, as parts of the Japanese experience show. The lesson is consistent in both directions. It is integration — ticketing, timed connections, and last-mile links — not raw speed, that determines whether rail distributes tourism or concentrates it. That is a choice about network design, and it is the choice an express spine makes in one direction and an integrated High Performance network makes in the other.

    The Condition

    The benefit is conditional, and the brief says so

    This estimate carries a load-bearing assumption, and honesty requires naming it. The entire small-town dividend depends on the last mile actually existing: a train to a rural station accomplishes little if the visitor still needs a car on arrival. The captured trips in the scenario above are conditional on shuttles, regional transit, bike and e-bike hire, and timed connections being built and funded alongside the line. Where that integration is absent, capture rates collapse toward the low column. This condition is not unique to the alternative — ALTO’s own city stations need last-mile links too, and it is pursuing them; the difference is reach, since integration can only amplify the stops a network has, and an integrated network simply has more of them, closer to the destinations.

    Three further limits keep the estimate disciplined. Some premier recreational areas — dispersed cottage country, backcountry, and lakes reached only by private road — are intrinsically car-shaped and fall outside the addressable set at any catchment. Leisure demand is sharply peaked by season and weekend, which is capacity-inefficient and weakens the operating economics rather than strengthening them. And the induced-demand component is the softest parameter in the model; over-reading it would repeat exactly the optimism bias the Initiative documents in ALTO’s own forecasts. The scenario is built to resist that temptation, which is why the low column is deliberately austere.

    Where things stand · July 2026

    Summary ledger

    On the tourism question, measured against ALTO’s own framing:

    Overlooked
    Market — one in three domestic trips is leisure, and the corridor’s small-town leisure economy is large and car-locked. ALTO’s frame addresses metro-to-metro travel, not this market.
    Bypassed
    Geography — most recreational regions fall outside a fifteen-minute reach of any ALTO station; whether the line runs north or on the preferred southern route, it stops only at cities. Peterborough, Trois-Rivières, and (if confirmed) Kingston are the exceptions.
    Adverse
    Mechanism — an express spine concentrates activity in hub cities and can draw it out of bypassed towns (the straw effect), rather than distributing it.
    Available
    Alternative — an integrated High Performance network reaches the metro market (most of ALTO’s benefit, over VIA) and the small-town market: an illustrative central ~$200M a year in net-new local spend, band ~$30M to ~$640M.
    Conditional
    Condition — the dividend is contingent on last-mile integration being built and funded; absent it, capture falls to the low scenario.

    ALTO reports an $800 million annual tourism benefit as a gross figure, concentrated in the metros its line connects. This brief does not dispute that rail generates tourism value between the metros — High Performance Rail delivers most of that too, over today’s VIA service, and at a fraction of the cost. It adds the value ALTO leaves out: the leisure trip out of the city to the small town. One approach captures both markets; the other captures the first, marginally faster, and skips the second. The difference is a network built to stop, not a spine built to skip.

    Download Full Brief
    The Stations That Aren’t There (PDF)
    Small-town tourism and the express spine — the full brief with sources.
    Download PDF
    Sources

    Documents and data

    1.
    ALTO, Frequently Asked Questions and About Alto — the seven federally mandated stations (Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Laval, Montréal, Trois-Rivières, Québec City). altotrain.ca
    2.
    CBC News, coverage of the ALTO route, schedule and land-access surveys, March 2026 — station list, Ottawa–Montréal first phase, and concerns from communities on existing rail routes. cbc.ca
    3.
    The Canadian Press, “Toronto area could get two high-speed rail stations,” April 30, 2026 — seven mandated stops, a possible eighth in the Toronto suburbs, and the 72-trains-per-day service concept.
    4.
    CBC News and Ottawa Business Journal, June 22–23, 2026 — the government’s stated preference for a southern route with a potential Kingston stop interconnecting VIA, the “25-minute drive” catchment claim, and ALTO’s stated intent to connect with the REM, metro, LRT and VIA. cbc.ca obj.ca
    5.
    Station-siting reporting, 2026: ALTO network map (Peterborough near major roadways with bus connections; a northern approach studied at Trois-Rivières owing to downtown density; a Mount Royal tunnel to reach downtown Montréal). altotrain.ca The Canadian Press and The Globe and Mail on Toronto’s suburban-first station opening ahead of a downtown stop; The Globe and Mail and CBC on the Transport Minister setting aside the historic downtown Ottawa station in favour of the existing Tremblay VIA/O-Train hub; and Imbleau largely ruling out Québec City’s Gare du Palais. theglobeandmail.com cbc.ca On the downtown Montréal tunnel — more than ten kilometres, costed by a McGill analysis via The Canadian Press at over CA$1 billion per kilometre, or 12 to 18 per cent of the project budget: trains.com
    6.
    Statistics Canada, National Travel Survey — domestic leisure-trip volumes, same-day share, mode, and expenditure categories (including gas and vehicle operation). Tables 24-10-0070-01 and 24-10-0071-01. statcan.gc.ca
    7.
    Statistics Canada, The Daily, National Travel Survey and Visitor Travel Survey, 2025 quarters — recent domestic tourism spending and per-visit averages for Ontario and Quebec. statcan.gc.ca
    8.
    Reference class (qualitative): the Swiss integrated rail and travel system (timed transfers, single ticketing, regional and postbus links); the United Kingdom’s Community Rail Partnerships; and the high-speed-rail “straw / tunnel effect” literature, including Japanese Shinkansen studies.
    9.
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative, modal-shift research notes and the scenario methodology set out in this brief — fifteen-minute station catchment, and low / central / high ranges for rail capture, induced demand, and per-trip local spend.
  • The more you look

    The More You Look, the Worse It Gets — ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative

    The More You Look, the Worse It Gets

    Thirty studies of high-speed rail in this corridor, across fifty-six years. One simple pattern runs through all of them.

    ⚠ The bottom line, up front

    The people building the railway say it will pay for itself. The one independent study in 2026 that actually checked the math — using the builders’ own cost estimates — found a hole of about $53 billion over fifty years.

    That’s not a fluke. It’s the pattern. For fifty-six years, the case for this railway has looked best in exactly the studies with the most to gain from building it.

    In one minute

    We read thirty major studies of high-speed rail in this corridor, from 1970 to today, and asked every one the same set of questions — with all the dollar figures put on a level footing.

    The verdict almost always matches who paid for the study. Equipment makers, the proponent and paid advocates say build it. Independent governments say wait. And every single study that actually runs the finances finds the same thing: ticket sales can’t cover the cost, so the public pays most of the bill.

    The numbers that look great — low costs, huge ridership, big climate wins — come from the promoters. The numbers that survive an independent look are far more sober. The closer and more independent the analysis, the weaker the case.

    Read the full report
    Corridor Rail Studies, 1970–2026 — A Cross-Decade Analysis
    Thirty studies, thirty-four dimensions, nine findings, with the full evidence tables
    Download PDF
    How we know

    Thirty studies. Same questions. Fifty-six years.

    We didn’t cherry-pick. We took thirty of the major studies of this railway — going right back to a 1970 federal commission — and put the same 34 questions to all of them, so the answers line up side by side across the decades.

    30
    major studies of this railway, read into one matrix
    1970–2026
    34
    questions asked of every single study
    so the answers compare
    56
    years of studies, all priced in today’s dollars
    a level playing field

    The studies come from every side: equipment makers, government task forces, a Crown corporation, universities, Transport Canada, and the builders themselves. That range is the whole point — it lets us tell a real change in the corridor apart from a change in who’s doing the asking.

    What we found

    Nine things every reader should know

    Read across all thirty studies, nine patterns keep showing up. Here they are in plain terms.

    1The answer depends on who paid for the study

    Line up the verdicts and it’s impossible to miss. The build-it studies come from equipment makers, from a Crown corporation that wanted to run the trains, from the proponent, and from paid advocates. Every independent government that looked said wait. Building new is the sponsors’ answer — not what fifty-six years of evidence actually points to.

    2It has never paid for itself. Not once.

    Every study that runs the money lands in the same spot: fares can’t cover the cost, and taxpayers foot most of the bill. VIA’s own 1984 numbers came out negative. In 1995, three governments agreed the public would cover 70–75%. In 2026, an independent model put the public subsidy at about $53 billion over fifty years — and found the railway wouldn’t even break even until year 44. The promise that it’ll fund itself is the single most optimistic claim in the whole record.

    3The closer you look, the more it costs

    Whenever a promoter and an independent body price the same thing, the promoter’s number is lower — and the price climbs as the estimate gets more serious. A 2026 advocacy paper gets the cost down to $63 billion only by assuming rock-bottom construction prices, about a third of our own central estimate of roughly $143 million per kilometre. The cheaper the headline, the thinner the math underneath it.

    4The ridership numbers don’t hold up

    The passenger forecasts are shakier than they look — and academics, an airline, Parliament and Transport Canada have all said so. One 1994 study showed the forecast could swing fivefold just by changing a single modelling choice, on the same data. Transport Canada’s own reviewers called the assumptions “optimistic and aggressive.” And the biggest numbers always belong to the promoters.

    5The freight idea is good — with one catch

    Splitting passengers and freight onto the corridor’s two parallel tracks, and freeing up freight capacity as a bonus, is a genuinely sound idea — it was proposed back in 2002. The catch: at the time, the freight railways said they didn’t need the extra capacity. It’s a strong argument, as long as it’s honest about that condition.

    6Going faster barely helps

    Study after study finds that top speed buys almost no extra riders — one found just an 8% jump going all the way from 300 to 400 km/h, another only about 9% from 200 to 300. So the level-headed studies settle far lower: a 2002 plan judged 240 km/h fast enough, and even the independent 2026 model assumes trains averaging just 200–250 km/h. The “top speed everywhere” designs are the outliers — a moderate railway of roughly 180–240 km/h carries nearly the same riders for far less money, and that’s where the evidence actually sits.

    7We’ve seen this financing risk before

    Having a private partner build and run the railway while the public owns the assets isn’t new — and neither is the warning. Both Parliament (1998) and Transport Canada (2003) flagged the same danger decades ago: deals like this can hand the risk to taxpayers and the reward to investors, with a rosy headline resting on one convenient assumption.

    8The climate math only counts the good half

    For decades, no study counted carbon at all. Now they do — but only the savings from getting people out of cars and planes. The huge emissions from pouring hundreds of kilometres of concrete and steel and clearing land? Left out. Count both sides honestly and this design adds emissions for decades. That’s the difference between a climate win and a climate cost.

    9When the numbers fail, out comes “nation-building”

    There’s a move that shows up again and again: when the dollars-and-cents case comes up short, in come national unity, regional growth, and keeping up with other countries. One 2016 report recommended extending the line even at a benefit-cost ratio of 0.24 — about 24 cents of benefit for every dollar spent. These arguments can be fair. But they do the heaviest lifting exactly where the economics are weakest.

    The gap, side by side

    What the promoters say vs. what independent studies find

    All nine findings come down to one contrast. Same railway, same engineering — but the promoters’ numbers and the independent record split apart at every point that matters, and they split the same way every time.

    What the promoters sayWhat independent studies find
    Build it new. Equipment makers, a Crown corporation that wanted the contract, the proponent, and paid advocates all say go ahead. Wait. Every independent government that studied it held off; the reviews and the airlines said upgrade what’s there instead.
    The verdict:Build  vs  Wait
    It’ll pay for itself. The 2025 prospectus says the trains will turn a profit — the rosiest claim in fifty-six years. Taxpayers pay most of it. From 1984 to 2026, every study that runs the money says fares can’t cover the cost. The 2026 independent model: about $53 billion in public subsidy over fifty years.
    The money:Self-funding  vs  ~$53B public
    As low as $63 billion. A 2026 paper reaches that number by assuming bargain construction prices. More like $80–90 billion. The proponent’s own range tops out at $90 billion; independent build-ups land near $80 billion. Costs rise the closer you look.
    Price tag:~$63B  vs  ~$80–90B
    24 to 56 million riders. The 2025–2026 figures are the highest ever produced for this line. About half that. The only recent independent, survey-based forecast lands near 10 million a year — right in line with fifty years of history.
    Yearly riders:~24–56M  vs  ~10M
    A big climate win. The proponent headlines a 39-megatonne cut — counting only the savings from fewer car and plane trips. A climate cost, for decades. The emissions from building it — concrete, steel, cleared land — are left out entirely. Count both sides and it adds emissions.
    On carbon:Half the ledger  vs  The whole ledger
    Ridership

    Same railway. Forecasts from 6 million to 56 million.

    Put the passenger forecasts next to each other and they span almost tenfold — for one railway line. The high numbers always come from the promoters. The one to trust is the recent independent forecast built on an actual survey of travellers.

    ~10M
    independent, survey-based forecast for 2050
    McGill, 2026
    24–43M
    the proponent’s own forecast
    ALTO prospectus, 2025
    42–56M
    the highest numbers ever produced for this line
    2026 advocacy paper
    Study (year)Who produced itYearly ridersBasis
    Air Canada / CP (1993)Airline / railway5.8 Mthe low end of the record
    Task Force (1991)Governments7.8 Mfull corridor
    Tri-government (1995)Governments10–12 Mfull corridor
    EcoTrain (2011)Governments10–11 Mfull corridor
    Lynx (1998)Private consortium11.1 MQuébec City–Toronto
    SNCF (2010)Equipment makerup to 22.5 Mbest-case scenario
    ALTO prospectus (2025)Proponent24–43 Mfull network
    Advocacy paper (2026)Paid advocacy42–56 Mthe highest ever
    McGill (2026)Independent~10 Msurvey-based, 2050

    The numbers aren’t perfectly apples-to-apples — they cover different routes and years — which is part of the point. The takeaway is simple: the independent, survey-based forecast is about half the proponent’s.

    What it means

    Five takeaways

    The current project sits right at the meeting point of every pattern above. The prospectus is the most upbeat sales pitch in the whole record. The most careful independent 2026 work finds a multi-billion-dollar hole. And the one favourable outside verdict is reached only by pairing the cheapest possible construction cost with the highest ridership ever forecast for the line. Here’s what that adds up to.

    What the record points to

    Building new from scratch is the sponsors’ pick, not the safe reading of history. Fifty-six years of evidence leans toward upgrading what exists — or waiting for a full, honest costing.
    Expect the public to pay most of it. Three governments said 70–75% back in 1995, and every financial study since has landed in the same place.
    A moderate-speed, lower-cost railway fits the evidence better. Extra speed barely adds riders, and costs balloon the closer you look. Both have been true for decades.

    What to insist on

    Get the ridership numbers independently checked before trusting them. A single forecast from the people who want to build it isn’t enough — the best studies in the record always used more than one independent forecaster.
    Make the freight case — but be upfront about the catch. The idea is sound; its real value depends on the freight railways actually wanting the freed-up capacity. Say so plainly.
    The evidence

    All thirty studies, at a glance

    Here’s the whole set, oldest to newest. Read the two right-hand columns together — who did the study, and what they concluded — and Finding 1 jumps out: the “build it” verdicts belong to the sellers and the promoters; the governments that were truly independent said wait.

    YearStudy — who did itIndependent of the builder?Verdict
    1970Intercity Passenger Transport Study — CTCFederalUpgrade
    1984High-Speed Passenger Rail in Canada — VIACrown corpMixed
    1990Review of Previous Studies — TRANSURBConsultantWait
    1990A Pragmatic Approach (SPRINTOR) — ABBEquipment makerUpgrade
    1990The Canadian TGV Project — Bombardier / GEC AlsthomEquipment makerBuild new
    1991Rapid Train Task Force — Ontario / QuébecGovernmentsWait
    1991Competition in Rail Carriage — BerkowitzAcademicBuild new
    1992FAST TRACKS — VIA (advocacy)Crown corpBuild new
    1993HST Market Assessment — Air Canada / CPAirline / railwayUpgrade
    1994Demand-model re-estimate — Gaudry & Le LeyzourAcademicNo verdict
    1995Industrial Strategy (Vol II) — Simpson-GuerinConsultantNo verdict
    1995Routing & Costing Study — SNC-Lavalin / DelcanConsultantNo verdict
    1995Québec–Ontario HSR, Final Report — tri-govGovernmentsWait
    1998The Lynx Proposal — Lynx consortiumPrivate consortiumBuild new
    2002VIAFast — VIA RailCrown corpUpgrade
    2003VIAFast validation — IBI for Transport CanadaGov’t reviewerNo verdict
    2009Infrastructure and the Economy — Martin Prosperity Inst.AcademicBuild new
    2010Socio-Economic Study of HSR — SNCFEquipment makerBuild new
    2011Updated Feasibility (EcoTrain) — tri-governmentGovernmentsWait
    2014Toronto–Kitchener–London HSR — SchabasConsultantBuild new
    2015Future of Passenger Rail — Library of ParliamentParliament / indep.Upgrade
    2016Preliminary Business Case — SDG (Steer)ConsultantBuild new
    2016High Speed Rail in Ontario — Special AdvisorProvincialBuild new
    2021Toronto–Montreal Analysis — Munk SchoolAcademicBuild new
    2022Speed and Frequency — AlstomEquipment makerBuild new
    2025All Aboard — C.D. Howe InstituteAdvocacyBuild new
    2025Fast Forward — ALTO (the proponent)ProponentBuild new
    2026Conceptual Design & Business Case — SchabasAdvocacyBuild new
    2026Corridorwide Survey & Financial Analysis — McGillAcademicNo verdict
    2026Eastern Ontario Route (Hwy 401) — Schabas & AntinucciAdvocacyBuild new

    “Advocacy” means a document written to argue a case — a sales prospectus, a think-tank brief, or paid expert advocacy. “No verdict” means the study analysed the question but didn’t take a build/don’t-build position.

    The independent studies to trust

    Where the sober numbers come from

    The full list is above. If you read just a few, read the independent ones — the counterweight to the sales pitch.

    1.
    Québec–Ontario High Speed Rail Project, Final Report — three governments together, 1995. Concluded the public would cover 70–75% of the cost, and a private-only version couldn’t be financed.
    2.
    VIAFast validation — IBI Group for Transport Canada, 2003. The government’s own reviewers, who flagged “optimistic and aggressive” ridership assumptions.
    3.
    Updated Feasibility Study (EcoTrain) — three governments, 2011. The most recent independent-government study; it said wait.
    4.
    Future of Passenger Rail in Canada — Library of Parliament, 2015. Recommended upgrading service rather than building new.
    5.
    Corridorwide Survey & Financial Analysis — Transportation Research at McGill, 2026. The independent study behind the $53-billion subsidy figure and the ~10-million ridership forecast.
  • Ready to tender

    Ready to Tender, Not Yet Approved

    Cadence has opened the procurement for the first segment of ALTO — while its own notice says the project is not yet approved.

    ⚠ What the document says

    On June 23, 2026, Cadence — the private partner chosen to develop ALTO — published a Preliminary Notice to Market for the Ottawa–Montreal segment, the first part of the line to be built. It sets out the contracts, the delivery models, and a tendering schedule that starts this summer. Cadence PNM

    The same notice states that construction has “no official launch date” and that the entire build-and-operate phase is “subject to the government of Canada’s final confirmation of the investment.” In other words: the machinery to build this is being switched on before the decision to build it — and the money to pay for it — has been confirmed.

    The point in one sentence

    You do not need an access-to-information request to see this one. It is a public document, unredacted, published by the developer itself — and on its own pages it does two things at once: it commits the construction industry to a two-year tendering calendar for the project’s biggest contracts, and it confirms that the project is not yet funded, not yet finally approved, and does not yet have a confirmed start date.

    This is the same sequence this Initiative has documented at every earlier stage: the commitment comes first, the decision that would justify it comes later. What is new is that it is now happening in the open, in the developer’s own words, rather than in a briefing note released years after the fact.

    None of this settles whether high-speed rail should be built. It is a question about order of operations — whether a project should be this far into procurement before the public analysis, the final business case, and the funding decision are in place.

    Read the source
    Cadence Preliminary Notice to Market — Central Segment
    A public document (document no. ALTO-CPDP-00000-PW-080000-500BC10-000001F), issued June 2026 by Projet Cadence Rail s.e.c. Available in French and English.
    Download PDF
    What it is

    A tender calendar, not a green light

    A “Preliminary Notice to Market” is a signal to construction firms: here is the work that is coming, here is roughly when it will be tendered, start putting your teams together. Cadence is careful to say it is not a formal call for bids and not a commitment to buy anything. That caution is worth taking at face value — but it cuts both ways. The document is not a decision to proceed; it is the paperwork that gets the supply chain ready to proceed. And it is being issued now, ahead of the decision that determines whether there is anything to proceed to.

    The notice is explicit about that gap. It says construction is “contemplated to begin in 2029–2030, although no official launch date has been confirmed,” and that the build-and-operate phase — the phase where the line actually gets built — happens only “subject to the government of Canada’s final confirmation of the investment.” Yet the tendering timetable it publishes does not wait for that confirmation. It begins in the summer of 2026.

    Summer
    2026
    first major tender opens (trains), with stations and the Montreal tunnel to follow through 2027
    Cadence PNM, Table 2
    2029–30
    construction “contemplated,” but with no confirmed start date
    Cadence PNM
    Not yet
    federal investment decision — the build phase is “subject to” it
    Cadence PNM

    The order here is the whole story. Under any ordinary reading of how a public project should work, the sequence is: decide whether to build it, confirm the money, then tender the work. This notice runs two of those steps in parallel — the tendering starts while the decision and the money are still described, on the same pages, as outstanding.

    The Two Columns

    What the notice commits to, and what it leaves open

    The clearest way to read the document is to line up what it treats as fixed enough to build a procurement schedule around against what it says is still undecided. Both columns are drawn from the same notice.

    Treated as ready to tenderStill described as undecided
    The contract packages. The notice sets out more than seventeen contract packages (WP1–WP17) — trains, signalling, stations, the Montreal access tunnel, two major bridges, and the track itself — each with a delivery model already assigned.The final route. The “more precise corridor” is still promised for autumn 2026. For the Toronto–Ottawa segment, the notice leaves open the choice between a northern route through the Canadian Shield and a southern route through farmland — unresolved.
    The timetable. A tender calendar running from summer 2026 (trains) through 2027–2028 (tunnel, bridges, civil works), package by package.The start date. Construction has no confirmed launch date; 2029–2030 is described only as “contemplated.”
    The delivery company. A dedicated entity, “InfraCo,” led by CDPQ Infra, is to be the contracting party for all the builders, with a second company, “OpCo,” to run operations.The funding. The entire build-and-operate phase is “subject to the government of Canada’s final confirmation of the investment” — which the notice does not report as having been given.
    The technical spec. Design speed of 320 km/h; full electrification; no level crossings; a twin-bore tunnel roughly 15 km long and 9 m wide under the Riviere des Prairies and Mount Royal into Montreal.The business case. No final business case has been published. The government’s own answer to Parliament in June 2026 was that the cost-benefit, net-present-value, and 30-year subsidy figures are “not finalized.”

    Read together, the two columns describe a project detailed enough to hand contractors a two-year work plan, and unsettled enough that its route, its price, its business case, and its go-ahead are all still open. Those are not usually true of the same project at the same time.

    The Machinery

    What is actually being tendered

    The notice divides the first segment into more than seventeen work packages. Most people following this issue do not need the package numbers — but the shape of the list matters, because it shows how much of the hardest and most expensive work is being brought to market before its design is finished.

    The trains and the systems come first

    The first tender out the door, in summer 2026, is for the rolling stock — roughly 60 trainsets. The signalling and control systems follow in the autumn. These are network-wide contracts: they are written for the first segment but carry options to extend to the rest of the line later.

    The tunnel and bridges are tendered before they are fully designed

    The single most demanding piece — the Montreal access tunnel, a twin-bore ~15 km bore under a river and a mountain into the downtown — is brought to market on an early-involvement basis because its design and ground conditions are not yet settled. Two major bridges (the Riviere des Mille-Iles and the Ottawa River) are in the same position. The riskiest, priciest work is being tendered at the point where the least is known about it.

    The benefit numbers arrive without a source

    The notice repeats headline figures — $24.5 billion a year in GDP, more than 50,000 construction jobs, 5,000 operating jobs — with no study, method, or citation attached to any of them. They are stated as facts in a document whose own government has told Parliament the underlying cost-benefit analysis is not finished.

    Who Runs It

    Who is in the room

    The notice confirms the structure of the group that would build and run the line. This is a matter of public record from the document itself; it is set out here as fact, not as accusation.

    Cadence is a consortium. The notice names CDPQ Infra (the infrastructure arm of Quebec’s public pension fund) as the lead infrastructure and equity member, with Air Canada as an equity member; SYSTRA and AtkinsRealis as the design leads; and Keolis and SNCF Voyageurs as the operations leads. The new delivery company, “InfraCo,” would be led by CDPQ Infra and would sit above and contract with all the individual builders.

    Two features are worth noting plainly, both straight from the document. First, the same consortium that is designing the strategy also sits atop the company that will award and manage the contracts — while the notice’s own rules bar consortium members from bidding on the major contracts and require engineering firms to take part “as subcontractors.” Second, Air Canada — the airline whose routes this train is meant to compete with — is an equity holder in the developer, a position the notice describes by reference to the airline’s experience linking its flights with rail in Europe. Readers can weigh what those arrangements mean; the point here is only that the developer’s own notice puts them on the record.

    The Fine Print

    Three things easy to miss

    The contracts would be in English only

    The notice contemplates publishing the major contracts in English only, with French “courtesy versions” available on request — a notable choice for a federal project running through Quebec and Ontario. It justifies this by pointing to the English-language agreement Cadence signed with Alto.

    You may not talk to the people who run it — except through Cadence

    Firms taking part in the procurement are told they “must refrain from any direct communication” with “Project Stakeholders” — a category the notice defines to include landowners and communities — except as Cadence permits, on pain of disqualification.

    A federal law puts the project largely beyond local jurisdiction

    The notice cites the High-Speed Rail Act, which declares the railway a “work for the general advantage of Canada.” That designation places the project under federal jurisdiction and applies provincial and municipal law only “to the extent that such laws may validly apply” — the mechanism that narrows what municipalities and provinces can require.

    None of these is hidden. They are in the notice, in plain sentences. They are collected here because, together, they describe a procurement that is moving quickly, keeping tight control of who may speak to whom, and operating under a statute that limits local say — all before the funding decision the same document says is still to come.

    Where things stand · July 2026

    Summary ledger

    Reading the notice against the question a citizen would reasonably ask — is this project actually decided? — here is where the document leaves things.

    Under way
    Procurement. Tendering for the first segment’s major contracts begins summer 2026 and runs through 2028.
    Under way
    Delivery structure. InfraCo (led by CDPQ Infra) and OpCo are to be set up as the contracting and operating companies.
    Stated but unsourced
    Benefits. $24.5B annual GDP, 50,000+ construction jobs, 5,000 operating jobs — asserted with no study or method attached.
    Not yet done
    Final route. The precise corridor is promised for autumn 2026; the Toronto–Ottawa north/south choice is left open.
    Not yet done
    Business case. No final business case published; the government told Parliament the cost-benefit, NPV, and subsidy figures are “not finalized.”
    Not yet done
    Start date. Construction has no confirmed launch date; 2029–2030 is only “contemplated.”
    Not yet done
    The go-ahead. The build-and-operate phase is “subject to the government of Canada’s final confirmation of the investment” — not reported as given.

    The top of that list is moving. The bottom of it is not. A procurement this advanced usually means a project this decided — and by the developer’s own account, this one is not. The notice asks the construction market to get ready to build something the government has not yet committed to build, at a price no one has finalized, on a route not yet chosen. The reasonable question for anyone following this is not whether the train is a good idea. It is why the building has started before the deciding.

    Sources

    Primary documents

    1.
    Projet Cadence Rail s.e.c., Preliminary Notice to Market / Avis préalable au marché — Alto Project Central Segment, document no. ALTO-CPDP-00000-PW-080000-500BC10-000001F, dated June 23, 2026 (cover) / June 22, 2026 (milestone table). A public document issued in French and English. All quotations and figures in this brief — the tender schedule (Table 2), the “no official launch date” and “subject to…final confirmation of the investment” language, the WP1–WP17 package structure, the InfraCo/OpCo and consortium structure, the 320 km/h and tunnel specifications, the English-only contract approach, the stakeholder-communication restriction, and the GDP and jobs figures — are drawn from this notice. citizenresearch.ca (PDF)
    2.
    Government of Canada, response to Order Paper Question Q-1191 (Scott Reid, Lanark–Frontenac), House of Commons, tabled June 17, 2026 — source for the statement that the project’s cost-benefit, net-present-value, and 30-year subsidy figures are “not finalized.”
    3.
    ALTO / Cadence, statements that a more precise corridor is to be unveiled in autumn 2026, referenced in the notice’s appendix and in prior public communications.

    This brief summarizes a single public document in plain language. It does not argue that high-speed rail should or should not be built; it examines the order in which this procurement is proceeding relative to the decisions that would authorize it. A fuller treatment of the notice appears in the Initiative’s Accountability Record.

  • Nanos research analysis July 2

    Polling note · ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative

    Public priority for ALTO: split nationally, divided by geography

    A June 2026 Nanos survey for CTV News finds Canadians evenly divided on whether building the Toronto–Québec City high-speed line should be a federal priority — with real support confined to the corridor it would serve, and firm resistance in the West.

    Nanos Research asked 1,051 Canadians, between June 26 and 28, 2026, to rate on a 0-to-10 scale how much of a priority it is for the Government of Canada to build the ALTO high-speed rail project. The question told respondents the line would be Canada’s first high-speed railway and that the estimated cost is between $60 and $90 billion, drawing on both public and private investment. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

    How much of a priority is building ALTO? Public priority for the Toronto–Québec City high-speed rail line, on a 0–10 scale A. National distribution, all 0–10 responses 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 22.9 0 3.8 1 5.7 2 5.3 3 4.1 4 8.2 5 7.6 6 13.2 7 7.9 8 6 9 11.3 10 “Not at all” “Very high” ◂ Low priority (0–3): 38% Neutral (4–6): 20% High priority (7–10): 38% ▸ Twice as many place it at 0 (23%) as at 10 (11%); median 5, mean 4.8. Balanced bands, but the intensity sits at the bottom. B. Regional lean — low vs. high priority (neutral and unsure omitted) lower ← priority → higher Quebec 33% 48% ▲ mean 5.4 Ontario 35% 43% mean 5.2 Atlantic 33% 38% mean 4.8 Canada 38% 38% mean 4.8 (national) British Columbia 41% 31% mean 4.1 Prairies 50% ▲ 21% ▼ mean 3.4 ▲ / ▼ significantly above / below the national result. Corridor provinces lean positive; the West leans negative. Source: Nanos Research for CTV News (“Power Play”), n=1,051 Canadians, June 26–28, 2026; margin of error ±3.0 pp, 19/20. Full report and data tables: nanos.co. Chart: ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative · citizenresearch.ca

    A national tie — with the intensity at the bottom

    On the collapsed scale the country divides almost exactly in half: 38% rate building ALTO a high priority (7–10) and 38% a low priority (0–3), with 20% neutral and 4% unsure. The mean is 4.8, just below the scale’s midpoint. But the full distribution is not symmetric. The single most common answer is “0 — not at all a priority,” chosen by 23% — roughly twice the 11% who pick “10 — very high priority.” The high side is more spread across 7 through 10; the low side is anchored at the floor. Where the poll registers deprioritization, it tends to be firm.

    Support concentrated in the corridor

    Priority tracks geography closely. In Quebec, 48% call it a high priority — significantly above the national figure — and Ontario is similar at 43%; both corridor provinces sit above the midpoint on the mean. Outside the corridor the pattern reverses: in the Prairies a majority (50%) rate it a low priority and only 21% a high one, the sole region where “not a priority” is an outright majority; British Columbia leans the same way (41% low, 31% high). Atlantic Canada sits close to the national average. Statistically, the defensible reading is that the corridor provinces lean positive and the West leans negative — individual provinces within each bloc are not clearly distinguishable from one another.

    Other differences

    Men are more favourable than women (mean 5.0 versus 4.6; 42% high priority versus 35%), a gap that holds up under direct testing. Age, by contrast, is essentially flat — younger and older Canadians rate the project about the same.

    How to read it

    Two cautions. First, the question measures priority, not approval: it asks where ALTO ranks against everything else the federal government could spend on, so a respondent can favour high-speed rail in principle and still place it low against competing demands. Second, the question anchored respondents to the project’s own cost estimate of $60–90 billion; survey responses are sensitive to the figures a question supplies, and this is the lower end of the plausible range. Regional subgroups also carry wider margins of error (roughly ±5 to ±10 points) than the national result, so fine distinctions within a region should be read with care.

    Data source. Nanos Research for CTV News, “Power Play” June omnibus. RDD dual-frame hybrid telephone and online survey of 1,051 Canadians aged 18+, June 26–28, 2026; margin of error ±3.0 percentage points, 19/20; weighted by age and gender (2021 Census) and geographically stratified.
     •  Full report (PDF): https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/2026-3086-CTV-June-PowerPlay-Report.pdf
     •  Detailed data tables (Excel): https://nanosresearch.sharepoint.com/:x:/s/NanosSharedProjects/IQBHe5k3wYL4RaW7ViFAsbIiATFRJyps7gut2JBtXmC1lvY?e=EVZ84C
     •  Methodology & more polling: nanos.co
    Figures in this note and chart are drawn from the published data tables for question 2026-3086; the 0–10 distribution, subgroup breakdowns, and significance testing are as released.
    ALTO HSR Citizen Research Initiative  ·  Independent & non-partisan  ·  citizenresearch.ca  ·  This note summarizes third-party polling; it is descriptive and does not represent an endorsement or a voting-intention finding.